Bitcoin seems to have stabilized after plunging to a low of $91,540 yesterday, continuing to set higher highs and lower lows in the midst of volatility, reaching $96,258 just before 0:00 today (1).
However, selling pressure subsequently emerged, and as of the time of writing, it has retreated to $93,829, with a 24-hour gain of 1.73%. The global community is still celebrating the New Year holidays, and there may be further consolidation, but if Bitcoin does not fall below the previous low, it may challenge the important $100,000 mark again.
Summary of Bitcoin's Historical Performance in January
As we enter 2025, despite concerns about a potential stock market bubble and the volatility that may come with Trump's inauguration, major institutions remain bullish on Bitcoin's ability to reach new all-time highs this year.
As for the timing, opinions vary, so let's take a look at the historical data to see if we can find any clues.
According to data from Coinglass, over the past 12 years (2013 - 2024), Bitcoin has seen 6 positive and 6 negative Januaries. The largest gains were:
- 44.05% in 2013
- 39.63% in 2023
- 29.95% in 2020
The largest losses were:
- -33.05% in 2015
- -25.41% in 2018
- -14.83% in 2016
The overall average over the 12 years is 3.13%, suggesting no clear direction. However, if we factor in the timing of new U.S. presidential inaugurations (2021, 2017, 2014), we find that aside from a slight dip in 2017, Bitcoin has seen gains in the other years. Whether Trump's inauguration on 1/20 will bring a new wave of Bitcoin momentum remains to be seen.
However, BlockTempo also reminds investors that if the stock market sell-off continues, Bitcoin may not be able to remain unaffected, so investors should be cautious of short-term volatility risks.
