Today is New Year's Day 2025, the first day of the new year, and I would like to wish all our readers a happy New Year.
2024 has passed in a flash. Looking back on 2024, I feel that my biggest gain this year is not that I have participated in some new and interesting projects in the crypto ecosystem, or that I have discovered some fun new species, but that I have read some books that have greatly changed my worldview, and listened to some courses that have given me a profound enlightenment.
These books did not directly tell me which coins to buy to make money, nor did they directly tell me how high certain coins could rise. They may seem "useless" for investment purposes, like "dragon-slaying techniques".
But these books and courses have allowed me to take a higher perspective to look at the possible development paths of a country in the future, and the possible development prospects of an ecosystem in the future, and have given me a clearer mindset and a clearer framework when making choices at some key crossroads.
In my previous articles, when I shared the investment views of Mr. Buffett, I shared one of his own clearly stated views:
Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger almost never look at the macroeconomy of the United States, nor do they look at macroeconomic indicators. The two gentlemen have also repeatedly emphasized that they cannot guess the policies of the Federal Reserve, nor can they guess the policies of the Treasury Department, and their decisions are completely unrelated to these macroeconomic policies.
But the gentlemen also emphasized that they were lucky to have been born in the United States. He said that if he had been born in Bangladesh, his luck would not have been so good.
At the shareholders' meeting, the gentlemen were repeatedly asked a question:
Why do they believe that the US stock market will surely create brilliance again, and that the undervalued prices will surely catch up with the intrinsic value?
The gentlemen pointed out that it is the rule of law and the market economy in the United States.
Regarding this response from the gentlemen, I have always had a doubt in my heart:
For those who do not live in the United States, should they not look at the macroeconomy?
If you don't look at the macroeconomy, the stocks bought on the Shanghai Stock Exchange before 1949 will all become worthless paper after 1949.
If you need to look at the macroeconomy, then how will the macroeconomic factors affect our investment and even our wealth? And what kind of mindset and framework should we use to judge the macroeconomy?
I believe that this judgment of the macroeconomic environment is very important for an individual in a crossroads of a country and a nation.
At such a crossroads, as ordinary people, how should we choose, which will determine our fate for the next decade or even decades.
In 1902, the young man from Gaochang Township, Jiangsu, chose to stay in his hometown and continue to be a farmer, or to go to the Shanghai Concession and take risks, which determined whether he would become "Du Yuesheng" or "Du Yuexeng" in the future.
In 1905, the farmer in Shandong chose to go east or go south to the five open ports, and his subsequent fate would be completely different.
In 1949, the farmer struggling on the edge of subsistence in Guangdong chose to stay on the mainland or go to Hong Kong like a refugee, which determined his life circumstances for the next 30 years.
In 2018, some people thought that two landmark events had occurred and completely liquidated all their domestic assets (including real estate), but in 2021 some people still leveraged to rush into the housing market.
If the decision was wrong, not only could the wealth accumulated by several generations of ancestors be wiped out in an instant, but even their personal safety and life could be in jeopardy; if the decision was right, not only could they live safely and smoothly, but they might even achieve a leap in their life across social strata.
Among these people, many have made decisions that are very wise in hindsight, but they may not have had much ability, may not have read many books, and may not have had much foresight. Perhaps it was just a momentary impulse, a gritted teeth.
Nevertheless, I am still not discouraged, is there a way to draw lessons from history, find the rules in it, and make a pre-judgment of the macroeconomic environment that can change the course of one's life?
I found the answer in my learning in 2024.
In this Saturday's Twitter exchange, I will focus on sharing my understanding in this regard, involving my views on the trend of the country in the next 10 to 15 years, as well as the general planning of ordinary people's wealth and investment in the next 10 to 15 years under this trend.
Our Twitter account was recently banned again, this is the second time we have been banned.
We are very helpless and puzzled about this: we have never posted any inappropriate comments on Twitter, we rarely interact with other accounts, and we have no commercial activities at all, we don't understand which rule we have violated?
But we have registered a new Twitter account again, purely to leave a backup for the article, and to leave an open space for us to freely communicate with our readers.
Our new Twitter account is @Dao_Views
This Saturday (January 4, 2025), we will have our first online exchange on this new Twitter account, and you can post your questions in the comments below the link.
https://x.com/xiaoyan3171/status/1873556087359836200
