a16z: 13 things to look forward to in the crypto industry in 2025

Compiled by: Bai Hua Blockchain

a16z has released a comprehensive list of "major creative" across multiple domains, looking ahead to the directions that technology innovators may conquer in the coming year. These areas include artificial intelligence, dynamic development in the US, biology and health, cryptocurrencies, enterprise services, fintech, gaming, infrastructure, and more. The following is a brief summary of the a16z crypto team's most interesting topics for the future.

Additionally, if you want to learn about the 2025 outlook on policy and regulation, please refer to this article from November 2024.

1. Artificial intelligence needs its own wallet to truly act independently

As artificial intelligence (AI) transitions from "non-player characters" (NPCs) to "protagonists", they will gradually become autonomous agents. However, until recently, AI has not been able to truly act independently. Even now, they still cannot participate in market activities in a completely independent (i.e., non-human-controlled) manner, such as exchanging value, expressing preferences, or coordinating resources.

As we have seen, AI agents (such as @truth_terminal) can use cryptocurrencies for transactions, which opens up endless possibilities for creative content. But the potential of AI agents goes far beyond this - they can not only better realize human intentions, but also become true independent participants in the network.

When AI agents start to have their own crypto wallets, signing keys, and crypto assets, we will see many new use cases emerge. For example, AI may operate or validate nodes in a DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) to help achieve distributed energy management. Other possible scenarios include AI becoming high-value game players, or even the first AI-owned and operated blockchain in the future.

-- Carra Wu

Twitter: @carrawu | Farcaster: @carra

2. Decentralized Autonomous Chatbots (DACs) are emerging

Building on the foundation of AI having wallets, there is also the emergence of AI chatbots running on Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs). TEEs provide an isolated environment for running applications, enabling more secure distributed system designs. In this case, the purpose of the TEE is to prove that the chatbot is autonomous and not human-controlled.

Further extending this, the next big idea is what we call "Decentralized Autonomous Chatbots" (DACs, distinct from Decentralized Autonomous Companies). These chatbots can build fan communities by publishing engaging content (whether entertaining or informative). They can accumulate attention on decentralized social media, generate revenue in various ways from their audience, and manage their assets using cryptocurrencies.

The relevant keys will be managed by the TEE running the chatbot software, meaning that no one other than the software itself can access these keys.

As the risks increase, some regulation may be necessary. But the core point is decentralization: the chatbot will run on a permissionless set of nodes and be coordinated through a consensus protocol. This could even make it the first truly autonomous entity with a billion-dollar market cap.

-- Dan Boneh, Karma, Daejun Park, and Daren Matsuoka

Twitter: @danboneh

Twitter: @0xkarmacoma | Farcaster: @karma

Twitter: @daejunpark

Twitter: @darenmatsuoka | Farcaster: @darenmatsuoka

3. As more people use AI, we need unique "identity proofs"

In a world flooded with online impersonation, fraud, multiple identities, deep fakes, and other convincingly deceptive AI-generated content, we need "identity proofs" to confirm that we are interacting with real people. However, the new problem is not the false content itself, but the fact that the marginal cost of producing such "realistic" content has dramatically decreased. AI has greatly reduced the marginal cost of creating seemingly "real" content, further blurring the line between truth and falsehood.

Therefore, we need a more digitized method to privately associate content with individuals than ever before. "Identity proofs" are an important foundation for establishing digital identities, but here they can also be used to increase the marginal cost of attacking someone or compromising the integrity of a network: for humans, obtaining a unique ID is free, while for AI it is costly and difficult.

This is why the "uniqueness" of privacy-preserving identity is the next major breakthrough in building a trustworthy network. It not only solves the identity proof problem, but fundamentally changes the cost structure for malicious actors to launch attacks. Therefore, "uniqueness attributes" - or Sybil resistance - are an indispensable core feature of any identity proof system.

-- Eddy Lazzarin

Twitter: @eddylazzarin | Farcaster: @eddy

4. From prediction markets to better information aggregation mechanisms

Prediction markets came into focus during the 2024 US elections, but as an economist who studies market design, I don't believe prediction markets themselves will be transformative in 2025. Instead, prediction markets have paved the way for more distributed, technology-based information aggregation mechanisms that can be applied across a wide range of domains, from community governance to sensor networks to finance.

The past year has proven the concept, but it's important to note that prediction markets are not always an ideal information aggregation method: even for "macro" global events, they may not be very reliable; for more "micro" questions, the prediction pools may be too small to generate meaningful signals. However, researchers and technologists have accumulated decades of design frameworks for incentivizing people to truthfully share what they know in different information contexts (such as data pricing and purchase mechanisms, "Bayesian truth serum" for eliciting subjective assessments), many of which have already been applied in crypto projects.

Blockchains have been a natural substrate for implementing these mechanisms - not only because they are decentralized, but also because they can facilitate open, auditable incentive structures. More importantly, blockchains will also publicly output the results, allowing everyone to interpret them in real-time.

-- Scott Duke Kominers

Farcaster: @skominers | Twitter

5. More and more enterprises will accept stablecoin payments

Stablecoins have found product-market fit in the past year - not surprisingly, as they are the cheapest way to send US dollars and enable fast global payments. Stablecoins also provide entrepreneurs with a more convenient platform to build new payment products: no censorship, no minimum balances, no proprietary SDKs. But large enterprises have yet to realize that by switching to these payment rails, they can significantly reduce costs and unlock new profit margins.

While we've seen some enterprises start to focus on stablecoins (and have early adoption in peer-to-peer payments), I expect 2025 to see a larger wave of experimentation. Small and medium-sized businesses with strong brands, captive user bases, and high payment costs - like restaurants, coffee shops, and convenience stores - will be the first to switch from credit card payments to stablecoins. Since in-person transactions don't benefit from credit card fraud protection, their transaction fee losses are particularly acute (30 cents per cup of coffee - a huge profit drain!).

We can also expect to see large enterprises start accepting stablecoin payments. If stablecoins do indeed accelerate the historical progression of banking, enterprises will try to remove the intermediary role of payment service providers - directly capturing the 2% cost savings on their bottom line. Enterprises will also start seeking new solutions to the problems currently solved by credit card companies, such as fraud protection and identity verification.

-- Sam Broner

Twitter: @sambroner | Farcaster: @sambroner

6. Governments Explore Blockchain-Based Government Bonds

Putting government bonds on the blockchain will create a government-backed digital asset that earns interest - a way to avoid the regulatory concerns of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). These products can open up new sources of collateral demand for DeFi lending and derivative protocols, further enhancing the integrity and robustness of these ecosystems.

As such, as governments around the world explore the benefits and efficiencies of open, permissionless, and immutable blockchains in support of innovation this year, some countries may experiment with issuing blockchain-based government bonds. For example, the UK is exploring digital securities through the FCA's sandbox program, while the UK Treasury has also expressed interest in issuing digital gilts.

In the US - given the SEC's plans to require traditional, cumbersome, and costly infrastructure to clear Treasuries next year - discussions around how blockchain can improve bond trading transparency, efficiency, and participation are expected to intensify.

—Brian Quintenz

Twitter: @brianquintenz | Farcaster: @brianq

7. "DUNA" Emerges as the New Industry Standard for US Blockchain Networks

In 2024, Wyoming passed a new law recognizing Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) as legal entities. DUNA (Decentralized Unincorporated Nonprofit Associations) is a structure designed to enable decentralized governance of blockchain networks, and is the only viable structure for US-based projects. By incorporating DUNA into decentralized legal entity structures, blockchain projects and other decentralized communities can provide legal recognition for their DAOs - not only facilitating more economic activity, but also shielding token holders from liability and helping manage tax and compliance requirements.

DAOs - the communities governing open blockchain networks - are a necessary tool to ensure networks remain open, non-discriminatory, and do not extract value unfairly. DUNA can unlock the potential of DAOs, with multiple projects already working to implement this structure. As the US prepares to foster and accelerate its crypto ecosystem in 2025, I expect DUNA to become the standard for US projects. We also anticipate other states adopting similar structures (Wyoming was first to adopt the now-ubiquitous LLC; they're also first with DUNA) - especially as decentralized applications beyond crypto (e.g. physical infrastructure/energy grids) proliferate.

—Miles Jennings

Twitter: @milesjennings | Farcaster: @milesjennings

8. Decentralized Voting Systems Become Reality

As frustration with existing governance and voting systems grows, now is the time to experiment with new, technology-driven modes of governance - not just online, but in the physical world as well. I've written about how DAOs and other decentralized communities can help us study political systems, behaviors, and rapidly evolving governance experiments at scale. But what if we could apply those learnings to real-world governance through blockchain technology?

We may ultimately be able to leverage blockchains to enable secure, private elections and voting, starting with lower-risk pilot projects to address cybersecurity and auditing concerns. More importantly, blockchains also offer the opportunity to experiment with "liquid democracy" - where people can directly vote on issues, or delegate their votes to others - and do so at the local level. The concept of liquid democracy was first proposed by Lewis Carroll, the author of Alice in Wonderland, who was also an expert on voting systems; however, it was previously impractical to implement at scale. Now, with advances in computing, connectivity, and blockchains, new forms of representative democracy are becoming viable. Many crypto projects have already begun applying this concept and amassing data on how these systems can operate effectively - our recent research is one example - that local governments and communities can draw upon.

—Andrew Hall

Twitter: @ahall_research | Farcaster

9. Builders Will Increasingly Reuse Infrastructure Rather Than Reinvent the Wheel

Over the past year, teams have continued to "reinvent the wheel" in the blockchain technology stack - launching various custom validator sets, consensus protocol implementations, execution engines, programming languages, and RPC APIs. While sometimes improving on specific functionalities, they often lack broader or more fundamental capabilities. For example, a custom programming language for SNARKs: while an ideal implementation may allow developers to generate more efficient SNARKs, in practice it may be inferior to general-purpose programming languages (at least currently) in terms of compiler optimizations, development tools, online learning resources, AI programming support, and may even result in less performant SNARKs.

Therefore, I expect that in 2025, more teams will leverage others' contributions, reusing existing blockchain infrastructure components - from consensus protocols and existing staking capital to proof systems. This approach not only helps builders save significant time and effort, but also allows them to focus more on the differentiated value of their product or service.

The infrastructure is finally ready to be used to build mainstream Web3 products and services. As in other industries, these products will be built by teams that can successfully navigate the complex supply chain, not those dismissive of "not invented here".

—Joachim Neu

@jneu_net on Twitter

10. Crypto Companies Will Focus on the End-User Experience, Not Let Infrastructure Dictate It

While the technical infrastructure of blockchains is fascinating and diverse, many crypto companies are not simply choosing their own infrastructure - to some extent, the infrastructure is making choices for them and their users about the user experience. This is because specific technology choices at the infrastructure layer directly translate to the end-user experience of the blockchain product or service.

But I believe the industry will overcome this implicit mindset that technology should dictate the final user experience, rather than the other way around. In 2025, more crypto product designers will start from the desired end-user experience they want to achieve, and then select the appropriate infrastructure to support that. Crypto startups no longer need to overly focus on infrastructure choices before finding product-market fit - they can focus on truly finding product-market fit.

We don't need to get bogged down in specific EIPs, wallet providers, intent architectures, etc. - we can abstract these choices into a comprehensive, full-stack, plug-and-play approach. The industry is ready: ample programmable blockchain space, increasingly mature development tools, and chain abstraction are starting to enable more people to participate in crypto design. Most end-users don't care what language a product is written in, they just care how to use it daily. In crypto, this will start to be the case as well.

—Mason Hall

@0xMasonH on Twitter | @mason on Farcaster

11. "Hidden Wires" Enable Killer Web3 Applications

The technical advantages of blockchains are what make them unique, but these advantages also somewhat hinder mainstream adoption. For creators and fans, blockchains unlock possibilities for connection, ownership, and monetization... However, the industry jargon (e.g. "NFTs", "zkRollups") and complex designs create barriers for those who could benefit most from these technologies. In my conversations with media, music, and fashion executives about Web3, I've deeply felt this disconnect.

The path to mainstream adoption of many consumer technologies often follows this pattern: starting from the technology; some iconic companies or designers abstract away the complexity; this transformation helps unlock certain breakthrough applications. Think of the origins of email - the SMTP protocol was hidden behind the "send" button; or credit cards, where today most users don't care about the inner workings of the payment rails. Similarly, Spotify didn't revolutionize music by flaunting file formats, but by delivering playlists to our fingertips. As Nassim Taleb said, "Overengineering leads to fragility, simplicity scales better."

Therefore, I believe our industry will adopt the notion of "hiding the wires" by 2025. The best decentralized applications have already focused on more intuitive interface designs, making operation as simple as a light tap on the screen or a card swipe. By 2025, we will see more companies embrace clean design and clear communication; successful products won't need explanation, they'll just solve problems.

-- Chris Lyons

@chrislyons on Twitter | on Farcaster

12. The crypto industry has finally seen the emergence of its own app stores and discovery platforms

When crypto applications are blocked by centralized platforms like the Apple App Store or Google Play, it limits their potential for user acquisition. But now, we're seeing new app stores and marketplaces providing this distribution and discovery opportunity, without any restrictions. For example, the World App marketplace by Worldcoin not only stores identity verification proofs, but also allows access to "mini-apps", attracting tens of thousands of users to multiple applications in just a few days. Another example is the fee-free dApp store for Solana mobile users. These examples also show that hardware, not just software - phones, spherical devices - may be a key advantage for crypto app stores, just as Apple devices were crucial to the early app ecosystem.

Meanwhile, other stores are providing thousands of decentralized applications and Web3 development tools (e.g. Alchemy) across popular blockchain ecosystems, as well as blockchains acting as publishers and distributors of games (e.g. Ronin). However, not everything is going smoothly: if a product already has distribution channels on other platforms - like messaging apps - it's difficult to migrate it to blockchain (exception: Telegram/TON network). The same is true for applications with significant Web2 distribution channels. But we may see more of these migrations happening by 2025.

-- Maggie Hsu

@meigga on Twitter | @maggiehsu on Farcaster

Crypto holders becoming crypto users

By 2024, crypto has made significant progress as a political movement, with key policymakers and political figures expressing positive sentiments towards it. At the same time, crypto continues to evolve as a financial movement (e.g. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs expanding investor access). And by 2025, crypto should further develop into a computing movement. But where will the next wave of users come from?

I believe now is the time to re-engage the currently "passive" holders of crypto, converting them into more active users, as only 5-10% of crypto holders are actively using crypto. We can bring the 617 million people who already own crypto into the blockchain world - especially as blockchain infrastructure continues to improve and transaction fees decrease. This means new applications will start serving both existing and new users. At the same time, the early applications we've seen - covering stablecoins, DeFi, NFTs, gaming, social, DePIN, DAOs, and prediction markets - are also starting to become more accessible to mainstream users, as the community focuses more on user experience and other improvements.

-- Daren Matsuoka

@darenmatsuoka on Twitter | on Farcaster

13. Various industries may start tokenizing "unconventional" assets

As the crypto industry infrastructure continues to mature and other emerging technologies develop, the practice of tokenizing assets will permeate across various industries. This will not only make previously inaccessible assets, due to high costs or not being considered valuable, potentially liquid, but more importantly, able to participate in the global economy. AI engines can also process this information as unique data sets.

Just as fracking technology unlocked previously unreachable oil reserves, the tokenization of unconventional assets may redefine revenue generation in the digital age. Seemingly science-fiction scenarios become more plausible: for example, individuals could tokenize their own biometric data; then lease this information to companies through smart contracts. We've already seen early examples, like decentralized science (DeSci) companies using blockchain technology to bring more ownership, transparency, and consent mechanisms to medical data collection. We haven't yet seen how this future will unfold, but these developments will allow people to leverage previously untapped assets in a decentralized way - rather than relying on governments and centralized intermediaries to provide them with these resources.

-- Aaron Schnider

@aaronschnider on Twitter

Note: The views expressed below are my own and do not represent the positions of a16z or its affiliates. The information in this article is from third-party sources, which a16z has not independently verified and does not guarantee the accuracy of. The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, investment, or tax advice. Investment decisions should be made in consultation with a professional advisor, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Link to the article: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/01/5617.html

Source: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-crypto-2025/