Panel 1: Review of Major Events in 2024
Question 1:
Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark, the MEME sector exploded, and the crypto market saw an influx of new investors. In 2024, multiple sectors experienced a broad-based rally. Could the panelists please review and analyze the major crypto events that occurred in 2024 from the perspective of the key sectors, as well as their impact on the market and the underlying reasons?
4E PR Manager Ann
At the beginning of the year, the US SEC approved the listing of a BTC spot ETF, making it as convenient and compliant to invest in BTC as buying US stocks. The continuous inflow of funds drove the current BTC bull market. At the end of the year, Trump's election victory pushed BTC above the $100,000 mark with his crypto-friendly stance.
amber.ac Head of Accelerator Yukun Hao
In 2024, BTC was the industry's biggest beta, and everyone experienced the returns it brought. Meanwhile, the emergence of AI technology has brought disruptive innovation, and the integration of Crypto and AI made breakthroughs this year. Furthermore, the ideological shift towards sovereign individuals and changes in underlying logic will bring new opportunities to the industry.
Uweb Co-founder Romeo
In 2024, the source of funds changed, and the operations of listed companies like MicroStrategy had a significant impact on the market. The new US accounting standards allow listed companies to include the fair value of crypto assets on their balance sheets, which will attract more listed companies to participate, and may bring even greater miracles to the market in 2025.
Question 2:
The acceptance of BTC as a legitimate asset class is increasing, which has also played a positive role in promoting the legalization and mainstreaming of the entire crypto industry. What is the significance of the approval of the BTC spot ETF for the BTC market and the entire crypto industry in 2024? Can you boldly predict which other underlying assets might enter the spot ETF list in 2025?
4E PR Manager Ann
The approval of the BTC spot ETF has opened the door for institutional bulls, driving up crypto market prices and paving the way for other cryptocurrencies to enter the mainstream market. It is expected that ETFs for cryptocurrencies such as Solana and XRP may be approved in 2025.
Waterdrip Capital Investor Elaine
The approval of ETFs for ETH and BTC has increased market acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Solana has a high probability of getting its ETF approved due to Wall Street's involvement. In addition, some of Grayscale's holdings, such as XRP and ADA, are also attracting attention, and projects like UNI may also have a chance to be listed as ETFs if they can resolve relevant issues, as they have business models that Wall Street can understand.
Youbi Capital Investor Jims
The guiding significance of the BTC ETF approval is greater than its substantive significance, as it has opened the door for institutions to buy BTC, increasing asset attention. In the future, more institutions may focus on blockchain industry technology, and index concepts may also be worth watching, as they can package some smaller coins into better statistical targets.
Question 3:
The 2024 US election has accelerated the entry of cryptocurrencies into the national discourse. Next year, Trump will take office, which will have what impact on the market trend? What regulatory measures might be introduced in the market? What will the global macroeconomic situation be like next year, and how will it affect the crypto market?
Waterdrip Capital Investor Elaine
After Trump's victory, his stance on cryptocurrencies may make BTC a national strategic currency reserve, which will attract global countries to pursue it, further driving up the BTC price. In the future, BTC may be benchmarked against gold, with a potential valuation of $1 million.
amber.ac Head of Accelerator Yukun Hao
Prices are affected by the capital chain, so it is important to pay attention to underlying liquidity indicators. Market sentiment also has a significant impact on prices. Regulatory compliance is an important direction for industry development, and as regulations improve, the industry will reach a new level, and asset prices will react in due course.
Youbi Capital Investor Jims
While the market trend is difficult to predict, it should generally trend upward, as factors such as the ETF's progress indicate that the market still has upside potential. However, due to the influence of various factors, the specific top is difficult to determine. In terms of regulation, after Trump takes office, relevant regulations may be amended, such as the phenomenon of companies including BTC in their financial reserves, and new policies may emerge in the future, such as clearer dividends and solutions to financing difficulties in the crypto industry. On the macroeconomic front, the US stock market trend is difficult to predict, but there is a possibility of market adjustments, and wealth transfer may become a trend rather than just wealth creation.
Panel 2: Analysis of the 2025 Market and Trends
Question 1:
The bull and bear market sentiment has always been the biggest concern for investors. Which stage of the bull market are we currently in? What will the market be like around the key time point of January 20, 2025, when Trump officially takes office? How long will the bull market last? How high do you see BTC reaching in this bull market?
Data Analyst Crypto_Painter
The market does not need to be clearly divided into bull and bear markets, but should focus on the current situation. The changes in the distribution of positions indicate that market volatility may intensify, and there may be significant fluctuations, which may eventually oscillate upwards or downwards, and the amplitude of the fluctuations will increase.
Independent Trader San Mu Trader
Based on the MA60 weekly moving average of the trading tools, the current BTC market is in an optimistic state, and the price has not fallen below this moving average, indicating that the long-term cycle is healthy. However, the BTC market is different from previous years, moving more steadily, similar to the trends of gold or Nasdaq, and may consolidate and fluctuate for most of the time in the future, but the long-term trend is still upward.
Independent Researcher Da Le
From the perspective of the main upward trend, the market is currently in a high-level consolidation, with the post-election rally, and the real climax will be in Q1 after Trump's inauguration on January 20. Historical data shows that risk assets usually have good expectations within the first 100 days after a US president takes office, but after March next year, attention needs to be paid to the US economic situation and unemployment rate. From a macroeconomic perspective, the current market is similar to the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, but with the addition of the election, the market sentiment has become FOMO. Then if a recession occurs in Q2, a black swan event similar to the 312 incident in 2020 may be an opportunity to buy the dips.
Question 2:
Macroeconomic risks are still the biggest uncertainty in the market. Affected by the rebound in inflation and increased tariffs, the market has generally lowered its expectations for Fed rate cuts next year, and some Wall Street institutions have even predicted rate hikes starting in the second half of next year. I would like to ask two panelists, what is your view on the macroeconomic outlook? How will this affect the crypto market? What trading strategies should investors pay attention to and consider in this situation?
Top 10 University Blockchain Lecturer Crypto OG Dr. Hugo
In my personal opinion, the possibility of rate hikes is not high, but the pace of rate cuts may slow down. Macroeconomic factors have a multi-faceted impact on the crypto market. BTC is affected by macroeconomic factors as its players are mostly large financial institutions, and Trump may implement BTC strategic reserve policies, so BTC has a large upside potential in the long run. Investors can consider DCA or long-term holding.
Crypto Researcher Claude
The probability of rate hikes is not high, and the market has already expected rate cuts, while the end of QT (quantitative tightening) will have a greater impact on market liquidity. If QT is halted in Q1 or the first half of 2025, it will be a positive factor. In addition, rate cuts may encourage more funds to enter the crypto market, and investors can pay attention to fund flows. In terms of trading strategies, one can focus on leading assets, adjust strategies based on market hotspots and sentiment, and embracing BTC remains a relatively stable choice.
Question 3:
With Trump's inauguration as president and the gradual clarification of US crypto regulations, from the perspective of US policies, which sectors do you think will be the main beneficiaries? What are the reasons? Which projects in these sectors are you optimistic about?
Independent Trader San Mu Trader
Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as requested:Focus on the compliance sector, including projects that are listed on US exchanges and can participate in capital; the RWA sector, as the market turns to compliance, more RWA assets may flow in; the MEME sector, which will become a larger framework with more subdivisions and opportunities, can look for opportunities in the primary market, focus on the secondary market's hot spots and projects with good liquidity, pay attention to the continuity of hot spots, and adjust the trading strategy in a timely manner.
Crypto Researcher Claude
Trump's policies mainly benefit the crypto market and companies that comply with US regulations. You can focus on the listing opportunities of US compliant exchanges, such as Circle; pay attention to the Grayscale sector and related assets; at the same time, the real estate and energy sectors in the RWA may have opportunities in the interest rate cut cycle, but you need to pay attention to the impact of related projects on real asset companies and focus on compliance issues.
Question 4:
In 2025, what technological innovations do you think the blockchain industry will see? What related Alpha will it spawn? What tracks and projects should investors focus on?
Data Analyst Crypto_Painter
I am optimistic about the direction of the integration of blockchain and real-world life applications, such as the track of the integration of traditional finance and blockchain finance. Each bull market, blockchain technology innovations are mostly to provide financing convenience and channels. Investors can focus on projects that can attract more liquidity, but also need to pay attention to the fact that the popular projects in the previous bull market may not be popular in the next bull market.
Top 10 University Blockchain Lecturer Crypto OG Dr Hugo
It is difficult to predict technological innovations, but business models will have new gameplay. AI agents are a hot topic now, which will at least continue until the first quarter of 2025. In the long run, the direction of the integration of RWA and finance is worth watching, and the DeFi field will have new gameplay, the essence of which is value transfer, such as Hyperliquid and centralized investment strategy platforms.
Independent Researcher Da Le
Pay attention to the US capital-led, capital sentiment-affected crypto market hype. At the same time, keep learning, pay attention to new opportunities, and do not underestimate the new tracks that have emerged, because market changes may bring opportunities for wealth growth.
Panel 3: Crypto Project Development and Reflection in 2025
Question 1:
Among the current public chain pattern, who is most likely to stand out in the public chain boom in 2025? What are the reasons? Such as technological advantages, application innovation, embracing the trend or Meme community friendliness, etc. Let's talk about it.
Bouncebit COO YC
Technological innovation is crucial, the project needs to be favored by large capital and in line with the industry cycle theme, you can focus on projects with strong consensus like movement, the situation of leading investment is a better reference indicator.
APOLLO Lead Peter
The project has gone through cycle testing, the community is stronger, and I am full of confidence in the development in 2025. The meme coin explosion has attracted attention. Next year, we will launch new technologies to improve blockchain performance, such as increasing transaction volume, reducing latency, enhancing network stability and scalability. At the same time, there are opportunities to explore the on-chain liquidity and returns of Bitcoin, and Apollo will layout in this area, cooperate with institutions to promote the development of Bitcoin on-chain, and it is expected that the application of Bitcoin on-chain will be more extensive next year.
Star AI Allen
The AI agent track is valued by mainstream blockchains, which can create more AI assets for end-users on the blockchain, bringing more users and interactions, and enhancing the value of the underlying token, such as digital people and agent trading applications. In 2025, the actions of many outsourcing factories in the AI field will bring continuous impact and opportunities to this track, and the project itself is also exploring the direction of the combination of AI agents and games. The combination of AI and DeFi can empower each other, and I am optimistic about the development of related tracks.
Question 2:
As a strategic stronghold, what will the development trend of stablecoins be in 2025? Will there be any dark horses? There are differences in the development paths of stablecoins in Asia, Europe and the Americas. How will the stablecoin market in different regions meet regulatory requirements while ensuring their competitiveness in 2025? What will the development of compliant stablecoins be like in the future, and will there be any compliant stablecoins that have competitive application scenarios?
Curve Contributor Haowi.eth
From a relative concept, the living space of globally centralized stablecoins with assets placed in traditional financial infrastructure will shrink relatively compared to decentralized stablecoins, as regulations in various countries become stricter. The application scenarios of compliant stablecoins are limited, such as the limited liquidity of USDC outside of Coinbase, while decentralized stablecoins still have advantages in on-chain applications and settlement, and I am optimistic about the long-term development of decentralized stablecoins.
StakeStone Core Contributor BlueWharf
The stablecoin track has different verticals, and the issuance volume and liquidity of strict stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC, etc.) are key. Strengthened regulation requires new entrants to embrace regulation, but they face fierce competition. While interest-bearing stablecoins (such as USDE, etc.) are essentially asset management services, the track is developing rapidly, and the underlying assets may be expanded in the future, and the competitive advantage lies in asset management capabilities.
Question 3:
With the changes in the regulatory environment and the accelerated integration of traditional finance and crypto assets, how do you see the future development of innovative financial products such as DeFi, BTCFi, and PayFi? Which of the above tracks are you more optimistic about? What do you think an innovative project in the above tracks should focus on in its development process? Does your project have any development plans for the above tracks in 2025?
APOLLO Lead Peter
I am optimistic about DeFi and the relevant part of BTCFi, there are opportunities to explore the returns of Bitcoin, more Bitcoin will be on-chain, its returns are transparent and come from real business. In 2025, Apollo will focus on enhancing the security and stability of Bitcoin on-chain, providing liquidity income solutions for users through custody or user self-operation, and at the same time cooperating with other projects to improve on-chain transactions and project performance, focusing on the overall flow direction of Bitcoin and the development of Solana and other projects.
Bouncebit COO YC
I am focused on the RWA track, combining on-chain and off-chain assets to innovate products, such as integrating US debt products into quantitative asset management products to provide users with arbitrage income, supporting the entry of large capital, and there are no similar directions in the current market, which I think is a good opportunity. The project will layout in BTCFi and PayFi, and is expected to launch a heavyweight product next year, solving existing industry pain points and improving asset liquidity. Initially focused on Bitcoin, it may later expand to other top blockchains, and will also incubate related projects based on customer needs, with the potential to bring new changes to the industry.
StakeStone Core Contributor BlueWharf
BTCFi mainly includes three meaningful aspects: BTC on-chain, BTC analysis and BTC on-chain lending, but the limited on-chain liquidity of BTC affects the related DeFi development. In terms of PayFi, the rise of high-performance public chains brings upgrade opportunities for payment business, and StakeStone will have products next year to improve the performance and user-friendliness of payment business, and I am optimistic about the development of the payment field next year.
Star AI Allen
I am optimistic about the DeFi track, AI can improve the efficiency of asset issuance, making asset issuance more convenient and diverse, but the current AI assets have the problem of value fluctuation. DeFi needs more standard asset types, AI can help transform them into collateral protocols, etc., to enhance asset liquidity and durability, and achieve mutual empowerment. Regarding BTCFi, I have seen the TGBTC project released by the TG official, but I need to further observe the micro-innovations and gameplay of other on-chain DeFi protocols.
