This article is mainly based on predictions about on-chain transactions and investments, and is for contemplation only.
Author: defioasis
Compiled by: Colin Wu
2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after the DeFi Summer, with a profusion of narrative-driven investment opportunities on-chain. According to the author's observation, as the concept of "Meme Everything" becomes more deeply rooted and the rapid issuance of Pump Fun assets occupies the mainstream position, Memes can be started from 0, and (without listing on top CEXs) the market cap ceiling of the on-chain space is around $1 billion, which is sufficient profit space for ordinary users, while top CEXs have become the last step for on-chain investment exit. Due to the escalating conflicts between VCCoin and the community, new assets listed on top CEXs often perform poorly; while old coins already listed on top CEXs are struggling, with teams lacking motivation or failing to keep up with market changes, in a state of waiting for unlocking and lying flat.
This article is mainly based on predictions about on-chain transactions and investments, focusing on on-chain sub-tracks, and is only the author's shallow predictions, not as any investment advice, only for contemplation.
1. The DEX/CEX monthly Vol ratio will exceed 20% for the first time
According to data from The Block, DEX trading volume exceeded $320 billion in December 2024, a historical monthly high, up over 200% year-on-year; the DEX/CEX ratio reached 11.64% in December 2024, up from 9.55% in December 2023, and the highest monthly trading volume ratio reached 13.86% in 2024. With the continuous optimization of CEX-led Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools, this may accelerate the adoption of on-chain transactions; the heat and wealth effect of the Meme track is one of the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market cap of AI Agents/AI Meme will exceed the peak of NFT, and one AI Agents token will have a market cap exceeding $10 billion
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024. Various types of AI Agents have emerged one after another. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) that opened Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the Eliza framework created by the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it, which enables one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, it has only been a matter of months.
There are currently at least several frameworks under development and operation in the market, including ai16z - Eliza, Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro - Zerepy and Dolion Framework, among which ai16z - Eliza and Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework have already formed a relatively strong ecological moat, and the various sub-tokens of AI Agents born from them are being rapidly deployed into the market.
CoinGecko data shows that the total market cap of AI Agents-related tokens has reached $12 billion, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL, acting as a transaction pair token similar to SOL for the Solana network on the Base network, and driving the prosperity of the ecosystem with AIXBT, GAME and LUNA, becoming the highest market cap AI Agents-related token at $3.5 billion.
3. It is expected that 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun will emerge
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for rapidly deploying tokens at extremely low cost on the Solana network, with thousands of Memecoins launched from it every day. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have also started to emulate it, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the TRON network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
In addition, the Memecoin track is gradually expanding, with "Meme Everything" and increasingly strong segmented demand, gradually evolving into vertically specialized Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focused on AI Agents launch, and Pump Science focused on DeSci. AI Agents have become a hundred-billion-dollar track, and DeSci has also shown potential with Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol.
4. At least 5 Base ecosystem native tokens will be listed on Binance spot
As a bellwether, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading of DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL and AIXBT, but has not yet listed any Base ecosystem native spot. In terms of traffic, trading activity and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecosystem effect of Base will be more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals system and the Farcaster system, with the Virtuals system ecosystem market cap approaching $5 billion, leading the Crypto x AI Agents field. The Base ecosystem may have the highest odds of being listed on top exchanges, and it is just a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.
As the public chain under the compliant US exchange Coinbase, relying on the Coinbase Wallet, connecting the Base - USDC to the bank account fiat currency channel. If the Trump administration implements policies favorable to Crypto, Coinbase and Base will likely be the first to benefit. In addition, with Jesse Pollak, the head of Base, officially joining the Coinbase executive team and leading the Coinbase Wallet in October, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic blueprint should further rise.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities over $1 billion in market cap
Hyperliquid has greatly increased community participation and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge has over $2 billion in USDC staked, equivalent to the 15th largest exchange; the platform token HYPE has at one point exceeded $10 billion in market cap, with an FDV of over $30 billion.
From the development path of CEXs, especially relatively young CEXs, most start from contracts with excellent performance and liquidity, but the real brand moat is formed by the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards bring the possibility of introducing exclusive assets, which is not possessed by previous attempts to move from contracts to spot trading on-chain exchanges. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at the time of issuance. In the face of the difficulty and high cost of listing on top CEXs, auctioning spot seats on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Projects known to have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but not yet officially listed include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki - Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the market cap and trading volume of Hyperliquid's spot are mainly concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 other projects exceeding $100 million in market cap. With a relatively high HYPE market cap, more capital is required for price manipulation; the platform's strong collaboration with some excellent exclusive projects to jointly create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is obviously more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increase in Hyperliquid's trading volume and reputation.
