Author: Robbie Petersen
Compiled by: TechFlow
Prediction #1: Front-ends will dominate value capture
As the MEV supply chain matures, those who control the order flow will capture more value. This is because downstream participants in the order flow - such as DEXes, searchers, builders, and validators - will face intense competition, while the originators of the order flow (i.e., the front-ends) have a natural monopoly in the MEV supply chain.
This means that the only role that can increase its yield without significantly losing market share is the front-end, especially those that control "fee-insensitive" order flow (e.g., digital wallets).
Furthermore, emerging technologies like conditional liquidity (e.g., @DFlowProtocol) will further drive this trend.
Prediction #2: DePIN market cap to grow 5x by 2025
The market leaders in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), such as @Helium and @Hivemapper, will approach a tipping point in their network effects. Meanwhile, @dawninternet will emerge as the breakthrough DePIN application of the year, driven by significant technical improvements and crypto-economic incentives.
Prediction #3: Crypto payment rails have limited application in agent transactions
Initially, transactions between humans and agents will still rely on traditional payment rails. Stripe and PayPal will dominate the early smart agent payment infrastructure through "funds-held-for-others" (FBO) account structures.
However, the limitations of traditional payment rails' high-fee models will only be exposed when agents' autonomy reaches a certain level. The rise of micro-transactions and usage-based pricing will make traditional payment rails (around 3% fees) unsustainable.
But this will not happen by 2025, as most transactions will still be between humans and agents. (Reference tweet)
Prediction #4: Stablecoins will cross the fintech chasm
The role of stablecoins will evolve from being the "lubricant" of DeFi to becoming a true medium of exchange.
This transition is driven by two main reasons for fintech companies to adopt stablecoins: (1) to boost profitability, and (2) to strategically control more of the payment value chain.
As the widespread adoption of stablecoins becomes a necessary choice for fintech companies' survival, the number of monthly active stablecoin addresses is expected to surpass 50 million.
Prediction #5: Visa launches a stablecoin initiative, proactively adjusting its profit structure
To address potential disruptive changes in the payment value chain, Visa is getting ahead of the curve with a stablecoin initiative. Although this may reduce the profitability of its card network, the risk is more manageable than being completely disrupted by the market. This logic also applies to other fintech companies and banks.
Prediction #6: "Yield-distributing" stablecoins' market share to grow 10x
"Yield-distributing" stablecoins (such as USDG @Paxos, "M" @m0foundation, and AUSD @withAUSD) change the economic model of stablecoins by redistributing the traditional profits of stablecoin issuers to the applications that provide liquidity to the network.
While Tether is expected to maintain its market dominance in 2025, the "yield-distributing" stablecoin model is considered the future direction for the following reasons:
(1) Importance of distribution channels: Unlike previous attempts to directly attract end-users, "yield-distributing" stablecoins target applications with distribution channels. This model aligns the incentives of distributors and issuers for the first time.
(2) Power of network effects: By incentivizing multiple applications to integrate simultaneously, "yield-distributing" stablecoins can fully leverage the network effects of the entire distributor ecosystem.
By 2025, with the collaboration of distributors (especially fintech companies) and market makers, the market share of these stablecoins will increase significantly, as they can create more direct benefits for distributors.
Prediction #7: The boundaries between wallets and applications will become increasingly blurred
Wallets will gradually integrate application-like features, such as yield earning (e.g., @fusewallet), credit accounts (e.g., @GearboxProtocol), native trading functionality, and chatbot-like interfaces where users can express their needs and have AI agents and backend solvers execute the operations.
At the same time, applications will also try to maintain direct relationships with end-users by hiding the existence of wallets. For example, the mobile app launched by @JupiterExchange is an early case of this.
The main driver of the centralized wallet vision comes from exchanges like @coinbase, which view wallet products as the primary way to monetize on-chain users.
Prediction #8: Chain abstraction will be implemented at the wallet layer
Although the discussion of chain abstraction has primarily focused on the chain and application layers, the optimal solution is to directly meet user needs. New technologies like @OneBalance_io's resource locking, @NEARProtocol's chain signing, and @Safe's SafeNet are driving a new paradigm of implementing chain abstraction at the wallet layer.
Prediction #9: Generic L2s will gradually become irrelevant
The future trend of blockchain activity can be summarized by a single question:
As an application, why would I choose to run on your chain?
For a few chains with clear positioning, such as Solana and Base, as well as vertically integrated chains like HypeEVM and Unichain, the answer is clear.
However, for the long tail of generic chains, the answer is not so clear. By 2025, blockchain activity will become increasingly concentrated on the few chains that can provide clear value to applications.
Prediction #10: The boundary between attention and value will disappear
As the most direct manifestation of attention value theory, the value of AI agent tokens will continue to grow.
