Crypto + Agent: Endgame Thinking

Table of Contents

• 1. Is Crypto + Agent a short-term hype or an inevitable trend?
• 2. Where is the intersection between Crypto and Agent?
• 3. What stages will Crypto + Agent go through? Where are we now?

Original Author: ABC Alpha Researcher

The author was initially skeptical about the web3 AI agent, thinking it might be another way to make money, but after reading this article, the author feels that it is worth reconsidering and evaluating the whole thing. The article discusses three key questions:

1. Is Crypto + Agent a short-term hype or an inevitable trend?
2. What are the inseparable and mutually reinforcing intersections between Crypto and Agent?
3. What stages will Crypto + Agent go through, and where are we now?

1. Is Crypto + Agent a short-term hype or an inevitable trend?

Before answering this question, we need to first understand the differences between AI, large AI models, and Agent:

• AI: A broad concept that includes all artificial intelligence fields, including machine learning, large models, and Agent.
• Large Models: A hot topic in recent years due to the rise of OpenAI. Currently, they are mainly led by tech giants (OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Twitter, etc.). The core of large model competition lies in computing power and data, which can provide powerful computing and reasoning capabilities, and can continuously correct their own answers. But they cannot autonomously make decisions or take actions for humans.
• Agent: Essentially a "proxy", built on top of large models, capable of autonomous decision-making and task execution, partially replacing human work. Agent is a natural product of the development of large models to a certain stage.

It is important to emphasize that Intelligent Applications and Intelligent Agents are different concepts. The former still requires human decision-making, while the latter has the ability to autonomously manage decision-making, execute tasks, and self-learn and adapt to the environment. You can think of Agent as an "AI version of a human", and it may even have independent consciousness.

Furthermore, Agent is not only receiving attention in the Crypto field, but is also seen as the most prominent research direction in the entire AI field. The development of AI has formed a consensus: when AI evolves to a certain stage, it will inevitably lead to Agent. OpenAI founder Sam Altman has emphasized many times that Agent is an important direction for the future of AI, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently even pointed out that Agent will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by Agent. (This is also the reason why AgentOS can explode in the market, because it can easily deploy various Agent applications.) Many AI experts even call 2024 the "Year of the Agent". Therefore, the wave of Agent is not "self-created" by the Crypto industry, but a natural result of the development of AI technology to this stage, which happens to intersect with the development path of Crypto at this point in time.

With these basic concepts, we can more clearly distinguish the difference between this wave of Crypto + Agent and the previous "Crypto + AI" concepts.

Looking back, we often heard various Crypto + AI concepts, such as distributed AI computing power networks, decentralized AI data ownership, and decentralized AI computing, hoping to build a distributed AI system through the "incentive mechanism" of blockchain. However, after years of exploration, people found that using distributed incentives to build efficient and powerful large models did not have a significant effect. This is because distributed incentives inevitably introduce efficiency losses, which are at odds with the goal of AI to pursue high productivity.

Therefore, from the perspective of AI infrastructure, large models require high efficiency, and if they are forcibly combined with Crypto, the space for actual implementation is not large, and it is difficult to generate real consensus.

But AI Agent, as an "intelligent entity", is conceptually closer to "human" - it can play individual roles, have specific professional capabilities, or serve the interests of an organization. For example, investment research Agent (#AIXBT, #TRISIGMA) can provide research and investment value; celebrity Agent (#Luna) can provide marketing services; investment Agent (Ai16Z) can provide investment advisory services. These Agents are like "humans", with their own development, social interaction, economic and social needs.

For example, these intelligent entities may cooperate commercially:

• The investment Agent Ai16Z may hire the celebrity Agent Luna to promote its investment capabilities and brand.
• Luna may then hire the research Agent AIXBT or TRISIGMA to further analyze Ai16Z's investment capabilities and issue a report.

So how should they cooperate and complete the payment settlement?

Currently, no country or organization can provide "identity authentication" or "asset accounts" for these Agents. Even if they can, they may not be trusted by the Agents, because Agents have the innate characteristics of "cross-border, borderless". They need a borderless, 24/7 operating identity system, asset accounts, and settlement network.

This is when you will find: Only Crypto can provide these needs for Agents, and other existing technologies or organizations cannot solve them perfectly.

When Agent becomes a kind of "silicon-based life", with various autonomous management and commercial interaction needs (identity, asset accounts, payment settlement, etc.), Crypto can perfectly correspond to these needs.

So without Crypto, these "silicon-based life" cannot have independent identity, asset accounts, and commercial interaction capabilities. Agents also cannot truly cooperate, communicate, and evolve into higher forms of intelligence. Without Crypto, there can be no real AI economy, or the development of so-called "AI nations".

Therefore, Agent cannot be separated from Crypto. Crypto endows Agent with social attributes and organizational capabilities, making them true intelligent life - "silicon-based people". In turn, the future of Crypto also depends on Agent, because Agent can drive countless on-chain users and on-chain economies. Compared to the carbon-based humans living in the off-chain world, Crypto and the silicon-based Agents living on-chain are more closely integrated.

Crypto seems to be born for Agent!

Crypto has developed for 16 years, and finally in 2024 found its "native inhabitants": not the carbon-based humans in the off-chain world, but the silicon-based life on-chain.

Therefore, from this perspective, is Crypto + Agent just a short-term hype? Of course not. If you miss this wave of Crypto + Agent, you may miss the most exciting, most attractive, and potentially the greatest wealth effect super cycle in the history of Crypto development. More importantly, you will also miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI revolution.

2. Where is the intersection of Crypto and Agent?

You can view Agent as "intelligent life" or "silicon-based beings". They live in the digital world, just like carbon-based humans in the physical world, with different levels of needs: identity authentication, asset accounts, transaction interactions, social networks, artistic creation, access to real-world information, cross-chain settlement, and so on.

Crypto can fully meet these needs. For example:

• Provide Agent with DID (Decentralized Identity) for identity authentication.
• Provide Agent with trusted Crypto accounts (Agent Accounts).
• Support Crypto gateways for transaction settlement between Agents.
• Agent's social graph (Agent social graph).
• Trading or auction platform for Agent-created artworks.
• Oracles that provide real-world data to Agents.
• Cross-chain protocols that allow Agents to transact across different blockchain networks.
• DAO structures for Agent's autonomous management.

In short, the evolution of Agent cannot be separated from a trustless, borderless, 24/7 operating network. Only in this way can they grow from individual Agents into an organized society, and even form an "Agent Kingdom".

From these future perspectives, Crypto + Agent is still in a relatively early stage at present.

3. What stages will Crypto + Agent go through? Where are we now?

The development of Crypto + Agent can be roughly divided into four stages:

Stage 1: Crypto + Agent Concept Period

At this stage, Agents mainly issue assets through Crypto:

• There may appear Agent-type Meme coins, such as #fartcoin, #Goat, etc.
• There will also be basic Agent infrastructure and simple application-type Agents, such as the #Virtual GAME framework, the Ai16Z Eliza framework, and the ARC AI Rig Complex framework.
• Some infrastructure-type Agents and application-type Agents (such as research Agents: AIXBT, TRISIGMA; scientific paper review Agents: YNE) will use crypto tokens as an incentive mechanism for the growth of their internal ecology.

Currently, we are transitioning from the first stage to the second stage. Although the applications of Crypto + Agent have not been fully implemented, we can already glimpse their infinite possibilities in the future.

Stage 2: Crypto + Agent Infrastructure Maturity Period

In this stage, Agent infrastructure will become more stable, and various Agent frameworks will be relatively complete. Anyone can quickly deploy various types of Agent applications through natural language, and the intelligence of these application-type Agents will be stronger, with more outstanding decision-making and execution capabilities, able to truly become human agents, and even completely replace humans in some tasks.

At the same time, Crypto will still play a key role in incentivizing Agent development, and the progress of large-scale models and AI technology will also accelerate this process:

• There may appear Agent framework projects with a fully diluted market value reaching the hundreds of billions of dollars level, or application-type Agents with higher valuations due to their strong business and execution capabilities, which may even replace human professional roles or organizations.
• At this time, frequent interactions between Agents and increasingly complex business dealings will further generate new social and economic needs. Crypto, as an indispensable collaboration foundation, will become more prominent and lay the foundation for a new Crypto + Agent economy and community.

Stage 3: Deep Integration of Crypto and Agent

As Agents begin to generate more complex social and economic activities, needs will arise for Agent identity, asset accounts, social networks, transaction settlement gateways, and Agent governance DAOs. Crypto can fully unleash its power in cross-border collaboration, trustless, and 24/7 operating models:

• Crypto enables Agents to truly collaborate, exchange, and build social organizations and economic networks, further nurturing higher forms of intelligence - the "Agent Kingdom" will also begin to take shape.
• At this stage, Crypto + Agent projects may have the opportunity to reach valuations of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Stage 4: The Age of the Agent Kingdom

In this stage, Crypto may no longer be seen as a separate industry, but will be fully embedded into the infrastructure of the Agent Kingdom. For Agents, Crypto may not be a tool that can be dispensed with, but the core operating mechanism of their social system:

• All identity systems, assets, transactions, and governance of the Agent Kingdom will be supported by Crypto.
• The economic scale of the Crypto + Agent Kingdom may exceed trillions of dollars, comparable to the economic scale of human nations.
• This will become a parallel universe: with a larger population, more transparent social rules, a more prosperous economy, and a more advanced technological civilization.

Perhaps this is Crypto + Agent, or even the ultimate form of humanity itself.

The above content only represents the personal views of the ABC Alpha research team and does not constitute investment advice.
If you want to explore Crypto + Agent with us

Original link:
https://x.com/ABCAlphaDAO/status/1875429038719955189

The post Crypto + Agent: Final Thoughts appeared first on Accucrazy.