Web3 AI Daily Review (2025/1/2)

I. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Situation

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the trend of inflation decline is significant

Goldman Sachs' report adjusted its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering this year's rate cut expectation from 100 basis points to 75 basis points, and pointed out that reports of a rebound in core inflation have been exaggerated. According to the report, the annualized increase in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but still lower than the 2.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a continued downward trend in inflation. In addition, the revised average PCE inflation data from the Dallas Fed shows that the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, while the inflation rate in November last year was 1.8%. As the labor market gradually tightens, the year-on-year wage growth has slowed to 3.9%, within the range of 3.5% to 4%. If productivity growth is between 1.5% and 2% in the coming years, this will be consistent with the 2% inflation target.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l The IRS has postponed the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules to the end of 2025

The IRS has postponed the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules to December 31, 2025, to provide brokers with more time to adapt to the legal and regulatory challenges they face. According to reports, the IRS has also issued a temporary relief measure that is expected to benefit holders of cryptocurrencies on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms. The new rules require the use of the first-in, first-out (FIFO) accounting method for crypto assets starting January 1, 2025, unless other methods such as highest-in, first-out (HIFO) or specific identification (Spec ID) are chosen.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l A Syrian NGO proposes to establish a Bitcoin-based banking system to facilitate economic reconstruction

A Syrian NGO has called on the new government to consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The Syrian Center for Economic Research (SCER) stated in its policy proposal that such a system is crucial for accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the public from the impact of hyperinflation and currency devaluation. This proposal, known as the "Syrian Bitcoin Policy", aims to provide a new solution for countries facing economic difficulties. The new President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who took office in December 2024, is actively seeking international recognition to secure reconstruction funds. SCER emphasized that the government should establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legalize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby driving the economic recovery of Syria. Additionally, the proposal suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin for support.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l The Ethereum Weekly Newsletter (WiE) announced its shutdown, citing lack of support and a sustainable business model

Evan Van Ness, the founder of the Ethereum Weekly Newsletter (WiE), announced on social media that WiE will officially cease operations on January 1, 2025. He stated that this decision stems from a conversation with the Ethereum Foundation (EF) leadership, which indicated that the EF's perceived value of WiE has clearly diminished, and in 2024 it only provided symbolic financial support. With the EF choosing to completely cut off this negligible support, the operation of WiE has also come to an end. Van Ness mentioned that although there was an opportunity to continue operations through fundraising, he preferred to focus on other meaningful projects. He also pointed out that WiE was unable to find a sustainable business model, as advertising and sponsorship revenue were insufficient to sustain it. Furthermore, he emphasized the issues within the Ethereum ecosystem, namely the excessive focus on code development and research, while neglecting other important contributions.

3. Hot Narratives

l Elon Musk's name change to "Kekius Maximus" caused volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with the KEKIUS token price soaring and then crashing

A few days ago, billionaire Elon Musk changed his social media X account name to "Kekius Maximus" and used the PEPE frog as his avatar, drawing attention from the online community. However, he has since restored his account name to "Elon Musk" and changed his avatar back to a personal photo. On December 31st, Musk's actions surprised many, particularly his choice of the "Kekius Maximus" name, which is closely related to the popular PEPE frog image and also implies the Latin word "Maximus," meaning "the greatest." Musk's name change had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially the KEKIUS token that shares his new name, with its price skyrocketing in a short period of time. Although Musk did not directly mention any connection to the KEKIUS token, his social media activities often have a strong influence on the cryptocurrency market. After his name change, the price of the KEKIUS token dropped by a factor of four from the previous day's peak level, demonstrating the market's highly sensitive reaction to his dynamics.