Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated between $97,000 and $99,000 over the past weekend, failing to break through the $99,000 mark three times before retreating. It is currently trading at $98,159, up 0.09% in the last 24 hours.
However, we know that weekends usually have lower market volatility. With European and American investors resuming normal trading days, if Bitcoin does not fall below the previous low of $97,200 last night, it may have the chance to challenge the $100,000 mark again in the short term.
Ethereum Holds Strong at 3600 USD
On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH) has had a similar trend to Bitcoin in the past two days, but seems to be even stronger. As of the time of writing, it is trading at $3,617, still fluctuating in the consolidation range.
Liquidation Data Across the Network Stabilizes
According to data from Coinglass, the total liquidation amount across the cryptocurrency network in the past 24 hours was $136 million, with $89.62 million in long positions and $46.79 million in short positions. Over 68,000 people were liquidated, and the liquidation data is not particularly severe.
10x Research Predicts BTC Trend for January
Looking ahead, 10x Research's analysis report released over the weekend suggests that we expect a positive start to the year, followed by a slight correction before January 15th when the CPI data is released, then a breakthrough of $100,000 before the inauguration of the new US president. However, the market may see another pullback before the FOMC meeting on January 29th.(The chart below shows 10x Research's projected BTC trend)
Are Altcoins Unable to Rally?
The report also mentioned that from January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin's market dominance rose from 50% to 60%, posing a huge obstacle to the performance of Altcoins.
Although this dominance indicator briefly plummeted to 53% in three weeks (sparking hopes for an Altcoin season), it quickly rebounded to around 58% and then consolidated around 55%. This consolidation highlights Bitcoin's persistent dominance as the primary driver of the cryptocurrency market, while also signaling the potential challenges facing Altcoins - unless the Bitcoin dominance indicator declines again.
Bitfinex analysts also hold the view that Bitcoin will fluctuate and rise in January, stating that they expect Bitcoin to reach $105,000 in January:
We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market performance as investors seek to deploy capital across a variety of asset classes, and we anticipate Bitcoin to fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000 by the end of January.
The inauguration of US President-elect Trump on the 20th may become an important catalyst for the cryptocurrency market, as people have expectations for the new US administration, including more friendly cryptocurrency regulations and improved economic policies. However, the Bitfinex analyst believes that the inauguration may not immediately trigger a market rally:
We expect the new presidency to bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policy, but we do not believe the inauguration ceremony will be a significant price appreciation event, but rather a prelude to paving a less obstructed path for cryptocurrencies in the US.
Market Highlights This Week
1/6 (Mon)
- Eurozone: German December CPI (YoY), Previous 0.2%
- US: December Services PMI, Forecast 58.5, Previous 56.1
1/7 (Tue)
- Eurozone: December CPI (YoY), Previous 2.2%
- US: December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Previous 52.1
- US: November JOLTS Job Openings, Previous 7.744M
1/8 (Wed)
- US: December Nonfarm Payrolls Change, Previous 146K
1/9 (Thu)
- US: New Year's Day, Markets Closed
- US: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- US: Initial Jobless Claims
1/10 (Fri)
- US: December Average Hourly Earnings (YoY), Previous 0.4%
- US: December Nonfarm Payrolls, Previous 227K
