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Author: 0xWeilan
Followin' the revision of the Fed's rate cut expectations, the US stock market continued to adjust, only recording a rebound on Friday. BTC, which had a larger adjustment previously, had a relatively strong performance this week, remaining stable above $91,000 even in the face of BTC Spot ETF outflows, and achieving five consecutive trading days of gains this week.
BTC opened at $93,563.35 and closed at $98,345.33, recording a 5.11% increase of $4,781.98 for the week, with a volatility of 8.23%, and a slight decrease in trading volume.
With the approaching of Trump's inauguration, concerns about US stock market funds continue, and the volatility of US bonds is also rising, indicating that the market has not yet found a direction.
Macroeconomic and Economic Data
The US dollar index continued to rise, reaching a high of 109.5196 on Friday. London gold rose slightly to $2,639.62, the 1-year US bond yield fell slightly to 4.171%, and the 10-year US bond yield continued to rise to 4.601%.
The three major US stock indexes, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500, rose 1.77%, fell 0.6%, and fell 0.48% respectively. For most of the week, they were in a weak state, only to see a more robust buying interest on Friday.
Next Friday, the US will release the non-farm payroll data, which may provide direction for traders. If the non-farm data is lower than expected, it may increase the expectation of further rate cuts by the Fed. Conversely, strong labor market data may strengthen the Fed's cautious stance, limiting the possibility of aggressive easing policies. This will push up US bond yields and put pressure on US stocks.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Since the change in rate cut expectations on the 18th, the crypto market's BTC Spot ETF and stablecoin channels have experienced sustained outflows, with the situation improving somewhat this week.
The BTC Spot ETF and stablecoin channels have been moving in the same direction, with outflows from Monday to Thursday. Until Friday, when the enthusiasm for long positions in the US stock market recovered slightly, both channels saw strong inflows, with a total of $1.683 billion on that day. Over the weekend, stablecoins continued to see inflows. Looking at the whole week, after last week's outflows, there was a small net inflow this week.
Although trading was sluggish this week, the funds in the market did not retreat. By the end of the weekend, the exchange's reserve funds reached a new high of $46 billion, indicating that the selling pressure is being accumulated, and once the external environment recovers, it will drive BTC and other cryptocurrencies to resume an upward trend.
Selling Pressure and Sell-off
After BTC prices surged to the $9,000-$11,000 range, the selling pressure mainly came from short-term and long-term positions in the $5,000-$7,000 "new high consolidation area". After the upward trend was broken by the Fed's rate cut expectations, there was no large-scale sell-off, and the selling pressure from short-term and long-term positions continued to weaken. By this week, the BTC inflows to the exchanges were only around 200,000 coins, a relatively low level.
During the same period, the exchange's reserve continued to slowly decline. After the price drop, the floating profit level of short-term positions fell to 12%.
The contract market's funding rate and open interest have also adjusted to relatively low levels.
This relatively stable position structure and stablecoin accumulation indicate that there is no significant adjustment pressure within the market.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625, indicating that the market is in an upward phase.
END
EMC Labs (Emergence Labs) was founded in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, committed to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring welfare to humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
