Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
At the beginning of 2025, the market seems to have started a gradual price recovery in the midst of fluctuating declines.
Around 10 am today, the BTC price once rose above $99,000, and is currently reported at around $98,800; ETH has risen from around $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; SOL has also gradually risen from around $180 on January 1 to above $210. As the date of Trump's inauguration as President of the United States approaches, market sentiment is also gradually warming up. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent market views in this article for readers' reference.
Buying pressure is still ongoing: buying power at the national, institutional, and corporate levels exists in the long term
The price rebound is naturally inseparable from the influx of buying power, and after the "Christmas volatility", the buying power in the new year still seems to exist in the long term and is increasingly firm.
Data: The historical cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $35.91 billion
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $111.46 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value to Bitcoin's total market value) reached 5.72%, and the historical cumulative net inflow reached $35.91 billion; the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs was $13.03 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value to Ethereum's total market value) was 3%, and the historical cumulative net inflow reached $2.64 billion.
BTC spot ETF data
ETH spot ETF data
In addition, institutional reports also show confidence in the continued net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs in 2025.
Steno Research: Expects net inflows of $48 billion and $28.5 billion into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs respectively by 2025; BTC to rise to at least $150,000
Steno Research recently released a report stating that its bullish forecasts for BTC and ETH prices reflect "an unprecedented favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment marked by falling interest rates and improved liquidity, and the historically strong performance of Bitcoin after the halving."
It also said, "In addition, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, and the large influx of funds into US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will further drive this trend."
Steno expects the net inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs to reach $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively by 2025. Furthermore, the report states that DApp TVL is expected to exceed $300 billion by 2025, far exceeding the 2021 peak of around $180 billion.
Previously, Steno Research stated in a report that Bitcoin's price is expected to rise from around $94,000 to a minimum of $150,000 by 2025, while ETH's price will more than double from $3,400 to at least $8,000. That is, the ETH/BTC exchange rate will rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 within the next 12 months, similar to the price trend of the previous cycle, and Altcoins will become the focus of attention.
El Salvador has added 5 more BTC since the new year, with a current holding of about 6,009 BTC
According to on-chain data today, El Salvador has added 5 more BTC since the new year, bringing its total holdings to about 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: Will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings in 2025, currently holding over 40,000 BTC
According to the CEO of Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, he stated that they will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings on their balance sheet in 2025.
MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, worth over $4 billion.
On Deribit, a large BTC options buyer purchased 150 BTC of $97,000 call options expiring on January 10
According to Lin Chen, Deribit's Asia-Pacific business manager, he stated that the largest BTC options trade today was: a user paid $559,000 to purchase 150 BTC of $97,000 call options expiring this Friday, January 10.
Standard Chartered: BTC price will reach $200,000 by 2025, MicroStrategy will buy more BTC
Standard Chartered's digital asset research head Geoffrey Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin's price will double, stating in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Furthermore, he predicted that institutional investment in Bitcoin will continue to maintain or exceed the pace of 2024 next year. The bank pointed out that since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin purchases by institutions have reached 683,000 BTC, mainly through US Bitcoin spot ETFs and the effective Bitcoin alternative MicroStrategy. Geoffrey Kendrick stated that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases should reach or exceed their 2024 purchases by 2025. He also added that as the incoming Trump administration is expected to reform the regulations on "traditional finance" (TradFi) companies' investments in digital currencies, pension funds should also start including Bitcoin in their portfolios through US Bitcoin spot ETFs starting next year. Kendrick pointed out: "Even a small allocation of the $40 trillion in US retirement funds would significantly drive up Bitcoin's price. We would be more optimistic if Bitcoin is adopted more quickly by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) or a potential US strategic reserve fund."
In addition, major listed companies are still steadily carrying out their own "Bitcoin accumulation plans".
Blockstream founder: MicroStrategy may have already increased BTC holdings
Blockstream founder Adam Back posted that "I believe MicroStrategy has completed its Bitcoin purchases, but must announce it to the market through an 8-K filing before or after normal trading hours in the stock market."
Previously, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has been releasing Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week.
Statistics: 11 listed companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings in the past week
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted that "According to data compiled by HODL15Capital, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin since last Monday. In 2025, a large number of companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement."
Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025
As a Japanese listed company that has tasted the "sweetness" of the Bitcoin reserve plan, Metaplanet's buying power will also continue.
The company's CEO Simon Gerovich recently stated that this year's goal is to increase the Bitcoin holding to 10,000 BTC by utilizing its "most value-enhancing capital market tools", aiming to drive the adoption of Bitcoin in Japan and globally, and "expand Metaplanet's influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem".
Gerovich said, "We are not just creating a company, but driving a movement."
Compared to the continued growth of buy-side pressure, the "sell-side pressure" has also eased to a considerable extent after entering 2025.
Easing of Sell-side Pressure: Both Exchange Inflows and Miner Outflows Have Declined
As the main source of selling pressure, exchange inflows and miner outflows have long been seen as reliable indicators, and have recently seen a significant decline.
Since November 2024, BTC exchange inflows and miner outflows have declined significantly, indicating easing of selling pressure
Since November 2024, the Bitcoin exchange inflow (total BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflow (BTC sent to exchanges by miners) have declined significantly, indicating easing of selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, the BTC exchange inflow reached a peak of 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024, with exchange inflow activity being highly active for about two months prior.In December 2024, the BTC exchange inflow declined, but was still quite significant, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges ranging from 11,000 to 79,000 per day.
The decrease in exchange inflows has been accompanied by a decrease in miner outflows, indicating that the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has eased, as they often sell BTC holdings to cover operating expenses. Since the historic price rise of Bitcoin during the period after Trump's election last year, miner outflows have been declining.
CryptoQuant data shows that the outflow peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, at a time when the Bitcoin price reached around $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges, on January 2 they sent 5,748 BTC, and on January 3 they sent 2,133 BTC.
Macro and Micro Forecasting Debate: Cautiously Optimistic and Highly Optimistic Camps Hold Different Views
As for the forecasts on the macro level of the cryptocurrency market and the personal views on the micro level, both cautious optimism and high optimism currently coexist. There are also traders who believe that they should "sell in time to lock in profits and stop losses at the wave level".
Greeks.live: European and American users are gradually returning from the holidays, and market enthusiasm is picking up
On January 3, Adam of the Greeks.live Research Institute wrote: "20,000 BTC options expired, the Put Call Ratio was 0.69, the maximum pain point was $97,000, and the notional value was $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options expired, the Put Call Ratio was 0.81, the maximum pain point was $3,400, and the notional value was $710 million. Today is the first weekly options expiration of 2025, with a total of $2.6 billion in options expiring. European and American users are gradually returning from their holidays, and the overall market enthusiasm is picking up. However, the theme of this week is still adjustment, with obvious market differentiation, and no sustained hot spots have yet appeared.
In late this month, Donald Trump will officially take office as the new President of the United States, and the entire market is very optimistic about 2025. However, the recent obvious correction in the US stock market has also brought considerable uncertainty to the market. The interest rate meeting this month is most likely to maintain no rate cuts, and there is no more positive news in the short term.
US Investment Bank View: BTC Market Cap Expected to Reach One-quarter of Gold by Year-end, BTC Price to Break $220,000
US investment bank HC Wainwright expects that by the end of 2025, the Bitcoin price will reach $225,000 per coin, which means that the Bitcoin market cap will reach $4.5 trillion, accounting for about 25% of the gold market value.
Finance Professor: Supportive US Regulation Will Boost BTC, $200,000 Price Completely Possible
Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance at the University of Sussex, believes that $200,000 Bitcoin is possible. Carol Alexander pointed out, "I am more optimistic about 2025 than ever before," and added that Bitcoin's price "can easily reach $200,000, but there is no sign that volatility will decrease." Alexander clarified that she personally does not actually own any Bitcoin. "By next summer, I expect it to trade in a range of $150,000 plus or minus $50,000." Supportive US regulation will boost Bitcoin, however, the lack of regulation on cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to cause volatility, as high leverage trading will lead to price fluctuations.
It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good track record in predicting Bitcoin prices, as she predicted last year that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2024, which indeed happened.
Miner Practitioner: Bitcoin May Reach a Peak of $180,000-$190,000 in 2025, but May Experience Sudden Corrections
Youwei Yang, Chief Economist of cryptocurrency mining company BIT Mining (BTCM), predicted that the price of Bitcoin in 2025 will be between $180,000 and $190,000, but he also remains cautious, believing that the price may experience corrections.
He pointed out: "Bitcoin may see significant upward momentum and occasional sharp corrections in 2025. In moments of market shocks, such as major stock market crashes, Bitcoin may temporarily fall to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish. Based on these dynamic forecasts, Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, which is consistent with the historical cycle pattern and the trend of more mainstream institutions investing in cryptocurrencies."
Ledn Chief Investment Officer: Forecasts BTC to Reach $160,000 by Year-end or Early Next Year
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of cryptocurrency lending company Ledn, said that Bitcoin may pull back to $89,000 and then rebound, reaching $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.
Glover said, from that point, Bitcoin may pull back again to $100,000, and then challenge $160,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026, a more conservative forecast than the $180,000 and $200,000 predictions by asset managers VanEck and Bitwise.
Analyst: Bitcoin Expected to Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations, May Rise to $105,000 in January
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts stated, "We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market trend as investors seek to deploy capital across a range of different asset classes. We forecast that by the end of January, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000."
On January 20, the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump may become an important catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new US administration include more crypto-friendly regulatory policies and improved US economic policies. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trump's inauguration may not immediately trigger a price surge in cryptocurrencies. "We expect the new US administration to provide more clarity on cryptocurrency policy, but we do not believe the inauguration itself will be a significant price appreciation event, but rather lay the groundwork for a less obstructed path for cryptocurrencies in the US."
Placeholder Partners: BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong regardless of the time frame
Placeholder Partners' Chris Burniske stated: "Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong and will likely rally again soon."
He also added that, similar to previous trends, Meme coins have become a good indicator of increased risk appetite in the past few weeks.
1co nfirmation founder: Expects countries to try to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings
1co nfirmation founder Nick Tomaino stated that it is very likely that we will soon see countries competing to try to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy:
-Issue government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.)
-Use the bonds to purchase cryptocurrencies
-Repay the loans on time according to the loan term
He also stated that the question is not whether countries will do this, but what cryptocurrencies they will purchase, likely starting with BTC, but the next one will be ETH, and any sufficiently decentralized currency can participate, as the government bond market is larger than the stock market.
Bearish Outlook and Take Profit Trading: Mature Perspectives from a Well-Known Research Institution and a Well-Known Trader
Compared to the optimistic attitude towards BTC, the market's views on ETH and Altcoins are relatively more rational. Here we have selected some representative views to present.
10x Research: Expects ETH to underperform BTC again in 2025, not optimistic about the Pectra upgrade
Recently, 10x Research's research director Markus Thielen stated in a recent market report: "While we cannot rule out the possibility of new catalysts emerging, we would not be surprised if Ethereum fails to achieve a meaningful rebound by 2025. While we understand Ethereum's volatility, we believe it remains a poor medium-term investment, and we expect ETH to underperform BTC again in 2025. Therefore, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: 'Avoid'."
Thielen said that one of the key indicators to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he pointed out that the 1-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, declining by about 1% in the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen said the increase in unstaking seems "logical" and believes Ethereum lacks "real demand" beyond staking.
He also said that the Ethereum Duncan upgrade last March (which reduced the network's gas fees and allowed it to process more transactions) "was six months late" and missed the peak of the Meme coin rally, causing the market to "turn to" the "more cost-effective" Solana alternative. He is also skeptical about the Pectra upgrade scheduled for early 2025, saying that "only two of the 19 upgrades so far have had a clear positive impact on the ETH price, and these upgrades occurred during Bitcoin bull markets." He added: "The three main catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 have basically all failed, and overall they have not brought any value."
Veteran Trader: Trump's inauguration could be a key trigger for the crypto market to regain its bullish momentum
Veteran cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently stated that the crypto market may not see significant volatility until January 20, when President-elect Trump is inaugurated.He speculates that this political event could be a key trigger for the crypto market to regain its bullish momentum. He believes that Bitcoin and Altcoins may remain stagnant until the inauguration, similar to the market behavior during previous election cycles.According to his analysis, historical patterns show that Bitcoin often rises after a new US president takes office. In 2021, Bitcoin surged over 100% shortly after President Biden's inauguration. Similarly, Bitcoin also saw a major breakthrough around the 2017 inauguration.
However, he acknowledged that his prediction could be overturned if the stock market (especially the S&P 500 index) continues to rise. He emphasized that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with the traditional market, indicating that the continued strength of the stock market could bring a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.
It is worth mentioning that with about two weeks until Trump's inauguration, the market has shown a general rise in Trump-related concept coins.
Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 in the past two months
Chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data stating: "Over the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530."
Odaily believes this may indicate that more retail investors have exited the market, further concentrating the BTC holdings structure.
Trader Eugene: The bull market is in the late stage, a better strategy is to take profits frequently
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that as we enter the late stage of this cycle, the strategy should be to sell more frequently rather than hold long-term.
