Bitcoin has once again broken through the $100,000 mark.
Since the beginning of January, Bitcoin ETF spot has seen net inflows again, with its total net asset value reaching $111.46 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market cap to total Bitcoin market cap) reaching 5.72%, with cumulative net inflows of $35.91 billion.
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Institutions are increasing their BTC holdings
On January 3, according to official news from MicroStrategy, it will raise $2 billion through the issuance of preferred shares in the first quarter to buy more BTC. This lays the foundation for increased BTC buying power. Since last Monday, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin. By 2025, a large number of companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement.
MicroStrategy has now purchased Bitcoin for nine consecutive weeks, and on January 6, it again increased its holdings by 1,070 BTC for about $101 million, at an average price of $94,004, with its current holdings reaching 447,470 BTC, totaling about $44.3 billion.
According to news from Bitcoin miner MARA Digital, it will continue to increase its Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet by 2025, with its current holdings of about 44,000 BTC worth over $4 billion. US-listed company KULR has now increased its holdings to 430.61 BTC.
Japanese company Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025 to expand Metaplanet's influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.
According to Cointelegraph, El Salvador has also added 5 BTC since the new year, bringing its total holdings to 6,009 BTC, worth about $595 million. Institutions around the world are increasing their BTC holdings, and the buying power for BTC is constantly increasing.
In 2025, companies will continue to expand the adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, and the capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market is expected to reach $50 billion, far exceeding last year's $24 billion.
MicroStrategy will continue to play a leading role in the wave of corporate adoption of Bitcoin, and the capital expansion plans of Bitcoin miners as well as small and medium-sized enterprises following Michael Saylor's "Bitcoin strategy" will also drive further market development.
The positive feedback loop in the capital market will accelerate further.
Call options are bullish
For three consecutive years, a large number of short-term Bitcoin call option trades have appeared in early January, which have often presaged a significant rise in Bitcoin prices in the past. The options market is an important tool for gauging market sentiment and predicting future trends. The active trading of call options suggests that market participants expect prices to rise.
On January 7, the trading volume of call options with a strike price of $103,000 exceeded 1,000 contracts, strongly implying the market's expectation of a short-term rise in Bitcoin prices.
The market trend seems somewhat similar, with Trump's inauguration being a recent turning point. The options term structure shows a premium on dates after the inauguration, which may reflect traders pricing in positions for potential market volatility events.
While the current market signals are leaning towards optimism, there is still some uncertainty in the market. A key question is whether this rebound is driven by short-term speculative behavior, or marks the beginning of a sustained Bitcoin rally in 2025? This will require observing the market's performance over a longer time frame.
Coinbase premium returns to breakeven point
After experiencing a period of intense selling from December 18, 2024 to January 2, 2025, the Bitcoin premium on the Coinbase exchange returned to a neutral level on January 4, with the premium rising back to the breakeven point, indicating that "the sentiment of US and institutional investors has improved".
However, it should be noted that the Coinbase premium mainly reflects the sentiment of US retail investors, rather than institutional sentiment.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin experienced a bullish structural breakout (BOS) after closing above $97,000 last week.
$100,000 is still a key turning point for Bitcoin. If it breaks through $99,000 and turns it into a support level, then it will be the start of the next rally, but if it fails to hold, it will go down again and oscillate for a long time.
The market will see a new round of rallies in the first quarter of the first half of the year. BTC prices may break through the $150,000 mark during this stage, and if the capital situation is strong, the bull top could reach $18-20K.
The conservative estimate for ETH is $6K, with a bull top of $8K-10K.
Be wary of top formation and correction risks in the fourth quarter, and grasp the right timing to exit.
