Odaily星球日报讯 加密货币分析师 Miles Deutscher 于 X 发文表示，山寨季将不会再像 2021 年一样，因为，2021 年的宽松条件是极端的异常情况，而新的启动项目数量激增也稀释了山寨币的潜在涨幅。因此本轮牛市预计会有所不同： -不再是所有山寨币同时上涨，而是会有更大但更局限的板块轮动（例如 AI 和 Meme 币）； -流动性将逐渐流入，而不是像 2021 年刺激计划期间那样急剧上升； -强劲的 ETF 流量减少了比特币上涨对流动性流量的影响（现在更多是心理上的影响，而不是实际的）； -市场将更多地转向交易者的市场，因为“持有很多币等待上涨”的策略将不再像之前一样有效。 Deutscher 认为，这个领域仍然存在大量的机会，只要投资者对自己的期望保持现实，并根据当前情况调整交易/投资风格。

Odaily星球日报讯 加密货币分析师 Miles Deutscher 于 X 发文表示，山寨季将不会再像 2021 年一样，因为，2021 年的宽松条件是极端的异常情况，而新的启动项目数量激增也稀释了山寨币的潜在涨幅。因此本轮牛市预计会有所不同：-不再是所有山寨币同时上涨，而是会有更大但更局限的板块轮动（例如 AI 和 Meme 币）；-流动性将逐渐流入，而不是像 2021 年刺激计划期间那样急剧上升；-强劲的 ETF 流量减少了比特币上涨对流动性流量的影响（现在更多是心理上的影响，而不是实际的）；-市场将更多地转向交易者的市场，因为“持有很多币等待上涨”的策略将不再像之前一样有效。Deutscher 认为，这个领域仍然存在大量的机会，只要投资者对自己的期望保持现实，并根据当前情况调整交易/投资风格。

分析：当前周期山寨币不会复现同步上涨行情，将经历更大但更局限的板块轮动

Odaily reported that cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher published an article stating that the altcoin season will not be as strong as in 2021, as the loose conditions in 2021 were an extreme anomaly, and the surge in new project launches has diluted the potential upside of altcoins. Therefore, this bull market is expected to be different: -It will not be a simultaneous rise of all altcoins, but a larger but more limited sector rotation (e.g. AI and Meme coins); -Liquidity will gradually flow in, rather than the sharp rise during the stimulus plan period in 2021; -Strong ETF flows have reduced the impact of Bitcoin's rise on liquidity flows (now it's more psychological than actual); -The market will shift more towards a trader's market, as the "hold many coins and wait for them to rise" strategy will no longer be as effective as before. Deutscher believes that there are still plenty of opportunities in this field, as long as investors keep their expectations realistic and adjust their trading/investment style according to the current situation.

Odaily reported that cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher published an article stating that the altcoin season will not be as strong as in 2021, as the loose conditions in 2021 were an extreme anomaly, and the surge in new project launches has diluted the potential upside of altcoins. Therefore, this bull market is expected to be different: -It will not be a simultaneous rise of all altcoins, but a larger but more limited sector rotation (e.g. AI and Meme coins); -Liquidity will gradually flow in, rather than the sharp rise during the stimulus plan period in 2021; -Strong ETF flows have reduced the impact of Bitcoin's rise on liquidity flows (now it's more psychological than actual); -The market will become more trader-oriented, as the "hold many coins and wait for them to rise" strategy will no longer be as effective as before. Deutscher believes that there are still plenty of opportunities in this field, as long as investors keep their expectations realistic and adjust their trading/investment style according to the current situation.

Analysis: In the current cycle, Altcoin will not see a synchronous rise again, and will experience a larger but more limited sector rotation

Odaily reported that CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated in an article on January 6 that the bull market that began in January 2023 is likely to reach its cyclical peak in the first quarter of 2025 or at the latest in the second quarter. The article stated: "With a large influx of new investment and additional funds from existing investors, we can reasonably expect the market to be in the late stage of this cycle." The post said: "Therefore, the prospect of a significant rise in Bitcoin and Altcoins is still worth looking forward to. Nevertheless, from a conservative perspective and considering risk management, it is still advisable to proceed with caution."

CryptoQuant analyst: This bull market is likely to reach its cyclical peak in Q1 or Q2 of 2025 at the latest

Odaily reported that according to 10x Research's market analysis, while some initial enthusiasm is expected at the start of the new year, this is not yet the time to experience the bullish sentiment seen in late January to March or late September to mid-December 2024. A good start to the year is expected, followed by a slight pullback before the CPI data release on January 15. Favorable inflation data may reignite optimism and drive a rebound before the January 20 Trump inauguration. However, this momentum may wane, and the market may pull back before the January 29 FOMC meeting. From January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin's dominance rose from 50% to 60%, posing a significant obstacle to the performance of <Altcoins>. Although the dominance index briefly fell to 53% in three weeks (sparking hopes of an <Altcoin> season), it quickly rebounded to nearly 58% and then stabilized around 55%. This consolidation highlights Bitcoin's persistent dominance as the primary driver of the crypto market, while also suggesting that <Altcoins> may face challenges unless the Bitcoin dominance index declines again.

10x Research: Expect a good start to the year, followed by a slight decline before the release of CPI data on January 15

According to the news from Mars Finance, the crypto analyst MilesDeutscher stated on social media that although <BTC> is approaching $100,000, the on-chain transaction demand of <BTC> is rapidly declining to historical lows. He pointed out that this round of market is driven by institutions/ETFs/countries, and therefore, this cycle cannot be truly compared with past cycles.