2024 was an exciting year in the history of the crypto industry. Cryptocurrency activity and usage reached new highs, blockchain infrastructure saw significant improvements and transaction fees declined, stablecoins found product-market fit, the convergence of cryptocurrencies and AI became clearer, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved, and the legislative and regulatory environment paved a more positive path forward for the crypto industry. All of this has set the stage for another thrilling year.
As we consider the next phase of cryptocurrency development, here are five key metrics we will be closely monitoring to track the industry's continued progress.
Monthly Active Mobile Wallet Users
To kickstart the next wave of cryptocurrency user growth, we need to bring the user experience closer to Web2 applications. Mobile wallets will play a critical role: there are hundreds of millions of "passive" cryptocurrency holders (those who own crypto but don't transact on-chain frequently) who could be converted to active users. To achieve this, developers need to continue building new consumer applications, and consumers need wallets to participate.
Last month, the number of mobile wallet users reached a new all-time high, surpassing 35 million for the first time. This growth was driven by increased users of leading wallets like Coinbase Wallet, MetaMask, and Trust Wallet, as well as some newer entrants like Phantom and World App.
For developers, consumer wallets present some of the industry's trickiest challenges, as balancing security, privacy, and usability is no easy feat. But with blockchain infrastructure now capable of supporting hundreds of millions or even billions of on-chain interactions, the time is ripe to build the next generation of mobile wallets. We'll be closely watching these developments in 2025.
You can track monthly active mobile wallet users here.
Adjusted Stablecoin Transaction Volume
With infrastructure improvements significantly reducing transaction fees, stablecoin activity increased in 2024. Notably, stablecoins are used not only for cryptocurrency trading, but also for cross-border payments and remittances, purchasing goods and services, and as a store of value in countries with high inflation. Stablecoins are now the lowest-cost way to transfer US dollars, and we expect more businesses to start accepting stablecoin payments.
Driven by these favorable factors, blockchain-based value settlement should continue to grow in 2025. While we can easily measure this transaction volume using on-chain data, it's challenging to isolate the true usage of stablecoins. Transactions can be initiated manually by end-users or automatically by programmatic bots, and some on-chain transactions don't resemble traditional settlement patterns.
Fortunately, Visa has created a clear and straightforward method to both showcase stablecoin usage and filter out the impact of bots and other artificial inflationary behavior.
If stablecoin adoption - one of the clearest use cases for cryptocurrencies - takes off in 2025, this metric will be closely watched.
You can track stablecoin transaction volume here.
ETF Net Inflows
Last year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This was a crucial milestone, making it easier for individual and institutional investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies. However, it will take time to activate distributors like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Merrill Lynch to include these products in retail investor portfolios.
One way to measure ETF activity is "net inflows," which represents the amount of Bitcoin or Ethereum flowing into or out of ETFs. (This excludes pre-existing products like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Ethereum Trust that ultimately converted to ETFs.) So far, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of 515,000 BTC, and Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows of 611,000 ETH.
As more institutional investors seek exposure to crypto assets, ETF net inflows should increase. By tracking on-chain deposits and withdrawals to addresses confirmed as ETF custodians, we can monitor this data in real-time.
You can track ETF net inflows here and here.
Spot Trading Volume Ratio of DEXs vs. CEXs
As users flock to the blockchain space, we expect the usage of Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) relative to Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) for cryptocurrency trading to increase. After all, the core premise of cryptocurrencies is Decentralized Finance (DeFi). As the DeFi ecosystem has evolved, the spot trading share of DEXs has steadily grown to around 11%, and we expect this trend to continue in 2025.
Recently, with the influx of new users, trading volumes on high-throughput chains like Coinbase's Base and Solana have surged, driving DEX trading volumes to new highs.
As more consumer applications come online, DEX trading volumes could grow further.
This will be an important metric to watch as we monitor the shifting balance between decentralized, crypto-native activity and centralized cryptocurrency trading.
You can track the spot trading volume ratio of DEXs vs. CEXs here.
Total Blockchain Transaction Fees
Total transaction fees (measured in USD) indicate the overall demand for block space on a particular blockchain, i.e., the true economic value.
However, this metric has many nuances, as most projects are actively working to reduce fees for users. This is why considering the unit transaction cost (i.e., the cost of a specific amount of blockchain resources) is also important. Ideally, the overall demand (total transaction fees) grows, but Gas fees (the cost per unit of resource usage) remain low.
In November 2024, Solana's fees surpassed Ethereum's for the first time ever (see chart below). Notably, even though Solana's unit transaction cost is much lower, this milestone still occurred; sending a US dollar stablecoin (USDC) on Ethereum costs around $5 in fees, while on Solana it's less than a penny. This is a significant milestone that we will continue to monitor.
As many ecosystems and their fee markets mature, this is a good time to start measuring the economic value facilitated by various blockchains. In the long run, the demand for block space (as measured by the total USD value of fees paid) may be the single most important metric for tracking the progress of the crypto industry. Why? Because it reflects the level of participation in valuable economic activity and users' willingness to pay for it.
You can track demand for block space through transaction fees here.
Conclusion
We've tracked many metrics in the crypto industry, but this year we'll be closely watching these five. With expanded investor access channels, mature infrastructure paving the way for new applications, and more popular products like stablecoins emerging, the crypto industry is well-positioned to attract more users and developers. Let's see what new milestones this year will bring to drive changes in these metrics.
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