Author: Frank, PANews
AI Agent has become an unavoidable hot spot in current on-chain transactions, from ai16z to Virtual, to Swarms, in just one month, the AI Agent track has again spawned a new sub-ecology in the MEME field. Faced with the constantly evolving AI Agent tokens, which ones can break through the重围, and which ones are just a concept wave? There may be multiple angles to consider, but the flow of funds on the chain and the changes in the main force may still be the most important indicators.
PANews will take the recently hot Swarms token as the main analysis object, and compare the whale addresses of 6 high-market-value AI Agent tokens, trying to "seek the sword on the boat" again, and glimpse some clues from it. The data range of this analysis includes: the initial purchase and initial sale of the top 1,000 holding addresses of the Swarms token (data as of 24:00 on January 6, 2025), the address overlap of 6 AI-related tokens with a market value of over $100 million, including Fartcoin, GRIFFAIN, ZEREBRO, ai16z, arc, and Swarms (data as of 2:00 PM on January 7, 2025), and the on-chain transaction records.
Some quietly layout at the bottom price, while others follow the trend
First, from the timeline of the whales entering the market, most of the whales started entering the market after January 2, which was 12 days after the token was created. From the time point of view, many of the Swarms whales also started buying after the Swarms ecosystem began to heat up, and failed to complete the early layout.
However, from the price curve of Swarms, if you bought before December 27, the price would basically be below $0.02, which is nearly 30 times lower than the current highest price of $0.6. By analyzing the initial purchase prices of these addresses, 202 addresses bought in the price range of $0.01 to $0.05, and the most addresses bought in the range of $0.3 to $0.4.
The distribution of these two data indicates that the early layout players of Swarms made batch purchases at low prices during the price plunge, and this kind of purchase was also relatively scattered, without concentrating in a unified time period. The advantage of this is that they can get chips at a relatively low price. Another group of whales started to enter the market in a big way after the discussion heat of Swarms increased, but the holding prices of these whales do not have too much competitive advantage.
This chip distribution situation may explain the reason why the Swarms market appears to have large short-term fluctuations. If the whales who are buried early sell at the high point, the new whales with higher costs will be easily triggered by large-scale selling, causing a sharp short-term plunge.
However, from the perspective of chip distribution, the main force chip distribution of Swarms is relatively scattered. In the analysis of the top 1,000 holding addresses, there are not too many tokens coming from the same address, and the initial token sources of most addresses are mainly on-chain exchanges. Therefore, there is less situation of early whales obtaining a large number of chips and then dispersing them to multiple addresses.
In addition, by comparing the on-chain trading addresses, it was found that the addresses that bought in the early on-chain basically did not appear in the current top 1,000 holding addresses. Therefore, the early chips of this token have basically been rotated.
From the overall data, the average first-time purchase price of the Swarms token is $0.17, the average first-time sale price is $0.23, and the average initial purchase amount per address is about $37,600. In terms of individual address buying and selling, the average first-time sale price of these addresses is about 2.43 times the purchase price.
The largest whale has unrealized profits of $25 million
Compared to other MEME tokens, the above-mentioned average initial purchase amount is significantly higher, and the main reason is the influence of some whale addresses. The address with the highest initial transfer amount is Dsjzh2oj3HxyPefjQr5qqvbR5NrMnvBgptGLSQ3t8T5i, which transferred in about $4.13 million on December 31 from another address, and then gradually transferred in another $500,000, with a current holding value of $27.33 million.
The address 5HfrnyodRraAw63aRVPueD5Er4D1sRKMZBMx9LBbhUAs that transferred it in started to buy a large amount from 8:22 am on December 20, and kept buying, spending a total of $1.89 million to buy 54.95 million Swarms, with an average price of about $0.034. The current profit is about $25.44 million.
According to the tracking, the earliest associated purchase of this address started at 7:13 am (the opening time of Swarms was around 6:45 am on December 20). It is worth mentioning that the associated capital address of this address also started buying the ai16z token as early as October 27, with a profit multiple of about 36 times.
In addition, another address 5NQTp9jHbzS4N9yKMWxwm8pPZW3RFSFPze3Edwss7iLe transferred in Swarms tokens worth about $3.63 million on January 4. According to the on-chain trace, this address also scattered purchases through several addresses around January 2, and finally concentrated the tokens into one address. The current holding value of this address is about $5.26 million.
There is another address H1zFMUjYLzJwcfgXEtwiJ2ykvxmBr7JW6afW29PkcEAe that used a similar method, with a holding of about $2.27 million, but the initial source of the tokens of this address was from the Bitget exchange, and then multiple purchases were made on the chain.
The initial transfer amount of these three addresses together reached about $10.53 million. From the purchase process, they initially used multiple addresses to make scattered purchases, and then concentrated all the tokens into several addresses after the Swarms heat increased, becoming the smart money in the eyes of on-chain hunters.
27% of addresses purchased multiple AI Agents, who is driving the AI Agent behind the scenes?
In addition to analyzing the token addresses of Swarms, PANews also conducted comparative analysis on the top 1,000 holding addresses of Fartcoin, GRIFFAIN, ZEREBRO, ai16z, arc, and Swarms. The analysis shows that among the 6,000 addresses analyzed, 1,647 addresses appeared repeatedly, which means that about 27% of the addresses purchased multiple AI Agent-related tokens, and ZEREBRO seems to be the most favored token by the AI whales, with 405 addresses purchasing this token. The next is arc (368) and ai16z (334).
Among these addresses, the address with the highest holding is DJnHztNmw1H56uYm98PNu5eVZ5yhi9482rZ9zA22TUUz, which currently holds AI-themed tokens worth about $49.86 million, of which the holding value of ai16z alone is about $42.7 million. And this is not the full holding of this address, as it had made profits of tens of millions of dollars a month ago by purchasing tokens such as ZEREBRO and GRIFFAIN.
In addition, 3xzTSh7KSFsnhzVvuGWXMmA3xaA89gCCM1MSS1Ga6ka6 also holds about $42.84 million in AI-related tokens, and the on-chain holding value of this address exceeds $73 million. According to social media information, this address should be the wallet address of the early AI Agent address Truth Terminal.
There are many similar addresses, and in the statistics, these 1,647 whale addresses hold AI-related tokens worth over $1.58 billion, of which about 29 addresses with AI holdings exceeding $10 million hold a total of about $690 million.
Rather than saying that AI Agent may be the hottest track in 2025, it is better to say that AI Agent is essentially a better story theme in the eyes of major investors.
Analyzing trading behavior is more important than tracking the addresses of smart money
As on-chain data analysis continues to deepen, tracking smart money seems to have become a common practice. However, from the perspective of large-scale investors, they do not hope too many retail investors will follow and compete for the low-priced tokens when they are accumulating positions in the early stage. Therefore, constantly changing new wallets and making dispersed purchases have become the basic operations of these large-scale investors.
In this case, blindly chasing smart money will gradually become ineffective, and there is even a risk of being maliciously harvested. But after analyzing the operations of large-scale holders multiple times, even using new addresses and dispersed purchases, there are still problems with fund management and fund aggregation. Therefore, in most cases, these large-scale investors still need to collect the funds in various wallets into one or several wallet addresses for easier management, and they can also stimulate more follow-up users to enter the market through small-amount purchases during the peak period. Secondly, in order to quickly collect and buy in the early stage, these early layout players have to concentrate a large amount of purchases within a certain time period. Although the amount is relatively dispersed, this regular purchase pattern may still become a clue. After all, their investment amounts are often between hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. If they don't have a certain determination to operate, they generally won't make crazy purchases.
In summary, for ordinary retail investors, if you insist on chasing smart money through on-chain tracking, the effect of focusing on on-chain behavior may be far better than chasing the addresses of smart money. Of course, there is another important prerequisite, that is, to think like a large-scale investor, what kind of topic will be a good story, otherwise, facing the endless new tokens, blind chasing is like looking for a needle in a haystack.
