WealthBee Macro Monthly Report: US hawkish rate cuts cause uncertainty, looking forward to the key trends of cryptocurrencies in 2025
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The US economy operated steadily in December, with core economic data within expectations, but hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve increased short-term market volatility. In the macroeconomic greenhouse, both US stocks and Bit reached new highs this month, bringing a year-end windfall for investors. Looking ahead to 2025, institutions generally have an optimistic outlook, believing Bit could break through $200,000 by then.
The economic data released in the US in December was generally within expectations: non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, slightly better than the market expectation (expected 220,000); November CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations. Subsequently, it was announced that the federal funds rate target range would be lowered by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%, as expected. However, the Fed "stabbed back" after announcing the rate cut, saying the rate cut in 2025 may narrow to 50 basis points. This undoubtedly poured cold water on the market, as it means the number of rate cuts expected for next year has dropped from 4 to 2, implying the Fed may not cut rates in January. Affected by the hawkish rate cut, US stocks and the crypto market experienced a major sell-off that day.
In the macroeconomic "greenhouse", US stocks have been steadily rising, with the Nasdaq index successfully breaking through 20,000 points. Among the Big 7 US stocks, 5 companies, including Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and Meta, all set new highs in December. OpenAI's consecutive 12-day conference also pushed AI to another peak. When the macroeconomic environment is not in crisis and the market has no new narratives, the market will still move in the direction of least resistance, and this direction may only be the strongest consensus - AI.
Noteworthy is that the Dow Jones Index experienced a "10-day losing streak" this month, the worst consecutive decline since 1974. The divergence between the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 was mainly due to the difference in component stocks. This month, the healthcare giant UnitedHealth was embroiled in a political storm, causing its stock price to plummet, while Nvidia, a new addition to the Dow Jones, also performed poorly, contributing to the Dow's consecutive declines.
This month also saw another crypto-related US stock event - MicroStrategy (MSTR) was officially included in the Nasdaq-100 index. As analyzed in the WealthBee November monthly report, MicroStrategy's "digital gold standard" strategy and capital operation model could become an industry pioneer, driving Bit to be recognized as a top predator asset if the market continues to rise. MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index is undoubtedly another victory for the crypto world and further progress for the traditional financial world. This may just be a prelude, and we await to see what bigger things may happen in the crypto world in the future.
On December 5th Beijing time, Bit finally reached a historic milestone - officially breaking through $100,000. At the same time, Ethereum also broke through $4,000. It can be said that Bit breaking through the $100,000 psychological barrier has completely ignited the market sentiment. This Bit surge is mainly driven by political factors. We don't know if Trump will actually fulfill his promises in the crypto sector after taking office, but at least the "emotional value" has given the market a full boost. Currently, there is a serious FOMO sentiment among the public overseas, with the proportion of crypto holders in South Korea reaching 30%, higher than the proportion of stock investors in China.Here is the English translation:
The current FOMO situation is evident to everyone. Major institutions have made future predictions: Bitwise, the largest crypto fund index in the US, predicts that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by 2025. The Bitwise team believes that Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 index, and 2025 will be an even more exuberant year than this year.
At the end of 2024, the Fed will enter a rate-cutting cycle, creating a more favorable macroeconomic environment for high-risk assets. Bitcoin has also gained the favor of domestic and foreign institutional liquidity, with 17 listed companies in the US and Japan already announcing plans to hold or have their boards approve Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
In the first quarter of 2025, the market may continue to support high-risk trading, and funds may continue to flow into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Looking ahead to 2025, several key storylines in the crypto space have emerged - the changing role of Bitcoin in global asset allocation, where the new incremental markets are, the new price ceiling, and regulation. These storylines currently have new important clues worth continued attention.
Currently, only 0.01% of listed companies globally hold Bitcoin, meaning this is just the tip of the iceberg of institutional buying power, and the market is still in the "elite experiment" stage. OKX Research Institute predicts that the quantifiable capital entering Bitcoin in the next year will be about $2.28 trillion. This capital volume could push the Bitcoin price to around $200,000, consistent with the predictions of institutions like Bernstein, BCA Research, and Standard Chartered.
Wall Street investment firm JMP Securities predicts that over the next three years, a Bitcoin spot ETF could see inflows of up to $220 billion. Overall, institutions generally expect Bitcoin to reach around $200,000 by 2025, and Bitcoin is still considered a "non-mainstream" investment, indicating that the incremental market is still unimaginably large.
Regulation has always been an important factor supporting the long-term trend of Bitcoin prices. With Trump's inauguration, regulation will be a major theme in 2025. The US will reach a critical moment in establishing regulatory clarity for the crypto industry, and bipartisan support for cryptocurrencies means that regulation is likely to shift from a hindrance to a driving force. The EU's Crypto Asset Markets (MiCA) regulation will be fully implemented in 2025, unifying member states' crypto regulations. Japan and South Korea in Asia are also continuing to encourage innovation while increasing regulation of exchanges and wallet service providers. Regulatory clarity globally will help attract more institutional and individual investors to the market.
In addition to Bitcoin, institutions predict that AI and stablecoins will be new highlights in 2025. Many banks are eyeing the profits of Tether (USDT) and are choosing to enter the market. According to Bloomberg, French Société Générale, German Oddo BHF, British Revolut, and even the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in China have started to deploy in the stablecoin market, hoping to get a share of this field. Stablecoins may be the tool with the most visible application scenarios in the crypto space, which has become a key step for the crypto space to further break out and become a new consensus.
In the current bullish market sentiment, even the most optimistic predictions seem reasonable. However, we need to understand that even if the future is bright, the path is still full of thorns, and we also need to pay attention to the risks that short-term market volatility may bring. Counting from 2008, the crypto world has grown up for 16 years - by human standards, it is about to enter "adulthood". At the time of adulthood, Bitcoin has become a consensus investment product in the mainstream financial circle, and stablecoins may also soon become a real application tool. The crypto market in 2025 will be more interesting than in 2024!
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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