Author: Meta Era
With Donald Trump officially taking office as the President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this definite signal foreshadows a series of upcoming reform measures, especially targeting the emerging cryptocurrency industry. After Bit reached a new high by breaking $100,000, the cryptocurrency industry seems to have fallen into a quagmire, with Bit fluctuating around the $100,000 mark, coupled with the upcoming prolonged cryptocurrency news vacuum period in February, the future market performance needs to be treated with caution.
From campaign to being shot and then elected: the biggest positive news and expectations were given in advance!
Looking back at Trump's entire process from campaigning to being elected, he had previously given the "Top 10 Cryptocurrency New Policies" at the 2024 Bit Conference, most of which were in the form of "If I am elected, I will XXXX". Let's review them again:
Make the US the global capital of cryptocurrencies
Stop the crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry within an hour of taking office
Prevent the US government from further developing CBDC
Establish a strategic Bit reserve
Dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
Prevent the US from selling its Bit holdings
Propose using cryptocurrencies to solve the US debt problem
Propose a comprehensive cryptocurrency policy
Establish a Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee
Reduce the sentence of "Silk Road" founder Ross Ulbricht
The statement "Make the US the global capital of cryptocurrencies" in particular has propelled the cryptocurrency community into the spotlight, allowing more voters who participate in cryptocurrency transactions to support his campaign for the US presidency. This series of statements by Trump injected optimism into the market, but after the inauguration ceremony, there were no immediate concrete actions to fulfill these promises, leading some investors to take a wait-and-see attitude.
But just the other day, Trump held a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. This press conference was initially advertised as an economic development announcement, revealing Dubai developer Damac Properties' plan to invest $20 billion in the US to build data centers. However, during this press conference, Trump raised four new issues: increasing the military spending ratio of NATO member countries, making Canada the 51st state of the US, not abandoning the military occupation of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the "American Gulf".
The "territorial expansion desire" revealed between the lines immediately made the international situation tense, with the sentiment of confrontation between countries spreading, which indirectly caused the cryptocurrency market to become "turbulent", with the cryptocurrency market showing a downward trend. According to news on January 7, Coinglass data showed that the 24-hour cryptocurrency market had a total of $346 million in contract liquidations, of which $282 million were long positions and $63.47 million were short positions. The total liquidation amount for BTC was $69.59 million, and the total liquidation amount for ETH was $59.68 million.
From the previous campaign period when he was shot and said "Fight!", to the cryptocurrency positive statements during the Bit Conference, and finally to his election as president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the cryptocurrency industry, and the cryptocurrency industry has also provided more support and funding for Trump. By January 20th, when he officially takes office, the cryptocurrency industry is very likely to enter the "true positive landing is negative" stage.
February: No wind, no waves, the market is in a sideways range
Let's take a look at the Fed's meeting schedule for 2025.
First meeting: January 28-29, 2025, to make interest rate decisions
Second meeting: March 18-19, 2025, to make interest rate decisions and economic outlook
StarEx exchange analysts believe that strong data has dampened market expectations for the Fed to cut rates quickly. Previously, the market generally expected the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025, but this expectation has been quickly revised downward after the recent economic data release. Some analysts even believe that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year, and even if it does, the magnitude will be very limited. Aditya Bhave, US economist at Bank of America, said in a report to clients on Wednesday that "there are increasing signs that inflation is on an upward trend", and considering the timing of the government transition, the Fed may have already completed the last rate cut of this cycle.
Looking at this, regarding the first Fed meeting, the recent obvious correction in the US stock market has also brought a lot of uncertainty to the market, and the monetary policy meeting this month is most likely to maintain no rate cuts, and the market has no more positive news in the short term.
In addition, by checking the major Web3 calendars, the cryptocurrency industry in February is as calm as water, with no major moves, and will enter a cryptocurrency news vacuum period. The cryptocurrency market in February is most likely to show a sideways consolidation trend and a weakening of trading volume and volatility. Cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, without a clear upward or downward trend. And trading activity will decrease, the overall market activity will decrease, and the price fluctuation range will become smaller.
Cryptocurrency maverick Musk: X will not adopt cryptocurrencies for payments in the near future
Musk recently said in an X live stream (Stream) test on the topic of X Payments that "there are no plans to use cryptocurrencies in the X Payments service in the near future, as we need licenses. We are currently only focused on fiat currencies and are focused on effectively launching the X Payments service."
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrencies, perhaps due to compliance considerations for the platform's payments, fiat currency payments are more in line with the current development needs and compliance requirements, but this has also left many cryptocurrency enthusiasts feeling like they have been hit on the head, causing a sense of panic.
In addition, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in his latest blog post "Sasa" stated that in the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether dollar liquidity can offset the impact of the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is not easy to grasp, and it is almost impossible to capture definite positive news, so cautious observation is not a better choice.
Summary
Although Trump painted a hopeful blueprint for the cryptocurrency industry during the campaign and promised to turn the US into the global capital of cryptocurrencies, his actual actions after taking office have not yet been clear. With the cryptocurrency news vacuum period entering February, market participants need to be wary of potential policy uncertainties and changes in the international situation that may impact the market. After Trump officially takes office, whether the cryptocurrency utopia he has envisioned can stir up a new cryptocurrency wave, or whether the promised cryptocurrency new policies can be quickly implemented and executed, will be enough to form a new round of positive news, and continue to allow Bit to launch an assault on higher market performance.
