Today is Saturday, and this week has seen a lot of volatility. BTC first surged to around 102,800, then plummeted by over 10,000 points in three days, leaving the bulls in a difficult situation. Some attribute the decline to the Los Angeles fire, while others believe it is due to the stock market crash, or the US government's approval to sell BTC, or the recent negative macroeconomic data, especially the non-farm payroll data released last night. Nonetheless, BTC is still holding above 91,000 points.
When the market is in a downtrend, any negative news will be amplified and associated with the market trend; conversely, when the market is in an uptrend, the continuous buying by institutions like BlackRock will also attract attention, but the increase in BTC at that time was not significant. Therefore, although there has been a lot of negative news this week, BTC is still maintaining above 91,000 points, indicating that the big players currently do not intend to break through this key support level. The fear and greed index fell to 50 yesterday, which is rare in a bull market, so last night was undoubtedly an ideal opportunity to buy the dips. After the release of the non-farm payroll data in the evening, the market was negatively impacted, and BTC once fell to around 92,000 points, while Ethereum also approached 3,200 points. If these two levels appear again in the next few days, they will be good entry points. Sometimes we cannot rely solely on the negative impact of news, but also need to look at the actual market trend. Currently, the market has shown signs of stabilization, and it is time to gradually enter and layout the potential uptrend.
According to Reuters, Trump may introduce at least one policy favorable to cryptocurrencies on his first day in office. The cryptocurrency industry has been pushing for Trump to issue an executive order in the first 100 days of his term to establish a US Bitcoin reserve, ensure the industry can access banking services, and set up a cryptocurrency advisory council. Based on this, it is speculated that Trump's inauguration may bring a wave of upward momentum.
This morning, I also reviewed the timing of the first top in the previous bull market, which occurred on April 14, 2021, the day of the COIN listing, which was also the stage top for BTC, followed by the 418 and 519 events. Therefore, before the current positive news is fully realized, based on historical trends, BTC is likely to experience a surge, which may be the last opportunity for everyone to reduce their positions. Especially for those with heavy positions who have not yet taken profits, they can consider reducing their positions around the 20th of this month, as a more rapid decline may occur from the 20th to the end of the month. This is just a prediction, and when the market trend is established, remember not to be greedy, take profits in time, and maintain caution. It is estimated that around the Spring Festival, around the 28th, BTC may enter an adjustment period, and after the Spring Festival, around early February, consider buying the dips to catch the last wave of the 2025 bull run.
From the current stage of BTC, combined with the past situations of the end of bull markets, the Altcoin season may arrive in the first quarter of this year. Due to the tight timeline, the Altcoin rally will most likely start in the first quarter and end quickly. In the previous bull market, many Altcoins had already peaked in April or May 2021, and then due to the metaverse boom, BTC experienced a second peak until November 2021.
After the release of yesterday's non-farm payroll data, US institutions have again lowered their expectations for the Fed's rate cuts, and the first rate cut is expected to occur in June this year. If this expectation is realized, the top for BTC may occur before June. The launch rhythm of Altcoins is usually three to four months before the top of BTC, so the harvest season for Altcoins may come between February and May. Combined with Ethereum's upgrade plan in April, the overall situation is also quite fitting, and FTX's compensation is also expected to be completed in the first half of the year. Overall, most Altcoins are currently in a depressed state, but there is still an opportunity to catch up when the bull market arrives.
After waiting for four years, the real money-making opportunities are usually very short-lived, especially in the Altcoin sector. The big players will still bring the Altcoin season to conceal the selling of BTC, but the time window for us to lay in wait and sell will be limited, so remember to take profits in time. Combining the liquidation map analysis, there is still a large short pressure above, so you can layout at low levels and wait for the positive news to be realized, which will be the time for us to profit.
Remember, the realization of negative news is an opportunity, and the realization of positive news is the risk!
Finally, there are actually a lot of things that haven't been written in, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions, which are often not something that can be summarized in an article.
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