火星财经消息，本周大事不断，年初首份非农就业报告便大超预期，引发市场剧烈波动。报告显示，美国去年12月新增就业岗位25.6万个，远高于预期的16.5万个。过去两个月的就业人数下调了8000个。失业率从4.2%下降到4.1%，而预期失业率将保持在4.2%或可能上升到4.3%。工资环比增长0.3%，同比工资增长从4%放缓至3.9%。这一数据导致美国股市遭到抛售，强劲的非农就业报告引发了市场对通胀的新担忧，并让人们认为美联储今年将更加谨慎地降息，标普500指数跌至一周低点。美国银行方面已表示，他们目前预计美联储2025年不会降息。下周，美国将发布多份重磅数据，包括PPI、CPI和“恐怖数据”，这将继续给市场带来波动。以下是新的一周里市场将重点关注的要点： 周二00:00，美国12月纽约联储1年通胀预期； 周二21:30，美国12月PPI数据； 周二23:00，2025年FOMC票委、堪萨斯联储主席施密德发表讲话； 周三04:00，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一场活动上致开幕词； 周三21:00，2027年FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金发表讲话； 周三21:30，美国12月CPI数据、美国1月纽约联储制造业指数； 周三23:00，2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利在明尼亚波利斯联储主办的线上地区经济会议致欢迎词并参加炉边谈话； 周四00:00， FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话； 周四01:00，2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比发表讲话； 周四03:00，美联储公布经济状况褐皮书； 周四21:30， 美国至1月11日当周初请失业金人数、12月零售销售月率。 随着美联储转向更为谨慎的立场，去年11月份的CPI报告中出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象，表明住房和更广泛的服务类别的价格上涨（这些是通胀粘性的最大贡献因素）已开始缓和。这使得定于下周三公布的CPI数据有可能出现下行意外，但任何减速都更有可能出现在2025年的头几个月，而不是去年12月的CPI数据。在CPI数据公布之前，投资者将关注定于下周二公布的美国去年12月PPI数据，而周四，市场所有目光都将聚焦于有“恐怖数据”之称的零售销售数据。

<div>火星财经消息，本周大事不断，年初首份非农就业报告便大超预期，引发市场剧烈波动。报告显示，美国去年12月新增就业岗位25.6万个，远高于预期的16.5万个。过去两个月的就业人数下调了8000个。失业率从4.2%下降到4.1%，而预期失业率将保持在4.2%或可能上升到4.3%。工资环比增长0.3%，同比工资增长从4%放缓至3.9%。这一数据导致美国股市遭到抛售，强劲的非农就业报告引发了市场对通胀的新担忧，并让人们认为美联储今年将更加谨慎地降息，标普500指数跌至一周低点。美国银行方面已表示，他们目前预计美联储2025年不会降息。下周，美国将发布多份重磅数据，包括PPI、CPI和“恐怖数据”，这将继续给市场带来波动。以下是新的一周里市场将重点关注的要点： 周二00:00，美国12月纽约联储1年通胀预期； 周二21:30，美国12月PPI数据； 周二23:00，2025年FOMC票委、堪萨斯联储主席施密德发表讲话； 周三04:00，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一场活动上致开幕词； 周三21:00，2027年FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金发表讲话； 周三21:30，美国12月CPI数据、美国1月纽约联储制造业指数； 周三23:00，2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利在明尼亚波利斯联储主办的线上地区经济会议致欢迎词并参加炉边谈话； 周四00:00， FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话； 周四01:00，2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比发表讲话； 周四03:00，美联储公布经济状况褐皮书； 周四21:30， 美国至1月11日当周初请失业金人数、12月零售销售月率。 随着美联储转向更为谨慎的立场，去年11月份的CPI报告中出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象，表明住房和更广泛的服务类别的价格上涨（这些是通胀粘性的最大贡献因素）已开始缓和。这使得定于下周三公布的CPI数据有可能出现下行意外，但任何减速都更有可能出现在2025年的头几个月，而不是去年12月的CPI数据。在CPI数据公布之前，投资者将关注定于下周二公布的美国去年12月PPI数据，而周四，市场所有目光都将聚焦于有“恐怖数据”之称的零售销售数据。</div>

下周宏观展望：CPI和“恐怖数据”或将颠覆降息预期，美联储转向谨慎立场

<News from Mars Finance>
The U.S. December non-farm payrolls report far exceeded expectations, triggering a violent market reaction. The report showed that 256,000 new jobs were added in the U.S. in December, far higher than the expected 165,000. Employment figures for the previous two months were revised down by 8,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the expected unemployment rate was expected to remain at 4.2% or possibly rise to 4.3%. Wages rose 0.3% month-over-month, with year-over-year wage growth slowing from 4% to 3.9%. This data led to a sell-off in the U.S. stock market, as the strong non-farm payrolls report raised new concerns about inflation and led to the belief that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in cutting rates this year, with the S&P 500 index falling to a one-week low. Bank of America has stated that they currently expect the Federal Reserve not to cut rates until 2025.

Next week, the U.S. will release a number of key data, including PPI, CPI and the "scary data", which will continue to bring volatility to the market. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are:

<Key Events>
- Tuesday 00:00, U.S. December New York Fed 1-year Inflation Expectation
- Tuesday 21:30, U.S. December PPI data
- Tuesday 23:00, 2025 FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Esther George speech
- Wednesday 04:00, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President John Williams opening remarks at an event
- Wednesday 21:00, 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speech
- Wednesday 21:30, U.S. December CPI data, U.S. January New York Fed Manufacturing Index
- Wednesday 23:00, 2026 FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari welcome remarks and fireside chat at a Minneapolis Fed hosted online regional economic conference
- Thursday 00:00, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President John Williams speech
- Thursday 01:00, 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speech
- Thursday 03:00, Federal Reserve releases Beige Book
- Thursday 21:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 11, December Retail Sales MoM

Here is the English translation, without translating the content within the <> tags:

<div>According to Mars Finance news, there have been major events this week. The first non-farm employment report of the year greatly exceeded expectations, causing a violent market fluctuation. The report shows that the US added 256,000 new jobs in December, far exceeding the expected 165,000. The employment numbers for the past two months were revised down by 8,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the expected unemployment rate was expected to remain at 4.2% or possibly rise to 4.3%. Wages increased 0.3% month-over-month, with annual wage growth slowing from 4% to 3.9%. This data led to a sell-off in the US stock market, as the strong non-farm employment report raised new concerns about inflation, and led people to believe that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates this year, with the S&P 500 index falling to a one-week low. Bank of America has stated that they currently expect the Fed not to cut interest rates until 2025. Next week, the US will release a number of key data, including PPI, CPI and the "scary data", which will continue to bring volatility to the market. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
Tuesday 00:00, US December New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation;
Tuesday 21:30, US December PPI data;
Tuesday 23:00, 2025 FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Esther George speech;
Wednesday 04:00, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President John Williams opening remarks at an event;
Wednesday 21:00, 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speech;
Wednesday 21:30, US December CPI data, US January New York Fed manufacturing index;
Wednesday 23:00, 2026 FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari welcome remarks and fireside chat at a Minneapolis Fed hosted online regional economic conference;
Thursday 00:00, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President John Williams speech;
Thursday 01:00, 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speech;
Thursday 03:00, Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 11, December retail sales MoM.</div>

Next week's macro outlook: CPI and "horror data" may overturn expectations of rate cuts, and the Fed turns to a cautious stance

Odaily reports that Alliance Bernstein senior economist Eric Winograd wrote that the Federal Reserve needs to make progress on inflation and see "some softness" in the job market before it can cut rates again, which may take a few months. The likelihood of rate hikes is low, as there are no signs that inflation is accelerating again. Winograd said that aside from strong overall data, the three-month moving average increase in employment was flat from November. The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.2% to 4.1%, and "has been in the 4.0% to 4.2% range for the past 7 months," Winograd believes, "aside from the soft landing we're currently enjoying, there's no reason to expect anything." (<金十>)

Economist: The next Fed rate cut could be months away

Odaily Odaily reported that after the release of the non-farm payroll data, Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, compared to its previous forecast of 75 basis points. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meetings in June and December. (<金十>)

Goldman Sachs: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its June and December policy meetings

The U.S. economy operated steadily in December, with core economic data within expectations, but hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve exacerbated short-term market volatility. In the macroeconomic greenhouse, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin hit new all-time highs this month, bringing a year-end windfall for investors. Looking ahead to 2025, institutions generally have an optimistic outlook, expecting Bitcoin to potentially break through $200,000 by that year.

The economic data released in the U.S. in December was largely within expectations: non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, slightly better than market expectations (expected 220,000); the November CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year and...

Next week's macro outlook: CPI and "horror data" may overturn expectations of rate cuts, and the Fed turns to a cautious stance

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