作者：Haotian
为什么一定要对AI Agent赛道抱有信心？ 接下来，我说几点思考逻辑：
1） 虽然和铭文赛道一样，AI Agent的Fomo重心仍然是“资产发行”特性，但比起在黄金上雕花的局限性，AI Agent天然就以“应用前置”为抓手， $AIXBT 一个单体AI能不能撑起5亿的市值你可以怀疑，但@aixbt_agent作为头部KOL，其日益增长的粉丝数和参考其分析策略投资的“实用性”...

作者：Haotian为什么一定要对AI Agent赛道抱有信心？ 接下来，我说几点思考逻辑：1） 虽然和铭文赛道一样，AI Agent的Fomo重心仍然是“资产发行”特性，但比起在黄金上雕花的局限性，AI Agent天然就以“应用前置”为抓手， $AIXBT 一个单体AI能不能撑起5亿的市值你可以怀疑，但@aixbt_agent作为头部KOL，其日益增长的粉丝数和参考其分析策略投资的“实用性”却有口皆碑。对单体AI而言，好的产品用户体验是基础，然后才有on top之上的其他预期堆叠；2）AI Agent的瘦应用式轻量化部署、MEME化社区发行、IGO（GitHub）上市方式等等，重构洗牌了过去以VC资本驱动的向市场讲Roadmap故事，最后靠TGE退出的旧技术创新叙事逻辑。已经固化的DEX——&gt;CEX分级上线的产业链无法解决高FDV上市，散户获利预期难的问题，那就索性改变秩序，让散户有从源头捡到优质筹码的机会；3）AI Agent的出现不是堆叠一层新叙事，它可以救赎过去一潭死水的老叙事，比如，元宇宙，在上一轮NFT驱动的市场预期下因开发成本、交付实现等问题非常虚无缥缈，但AI Agent语境下的元宇宙就相对接地气了；其他，DeFi行业的人为Rug pull问题，可以靠AI Agent自主化管理私钥实现重构等等。AI Agent结合老叙事有化腐朽为神奇的力量，TEE被带火只是个开始，静待“链抽象、zkVM、intent centric”等热点叙事一个个成为市场话题焦点；4）AI Agent在web3方向目前只有可怜的15B市值，追赶上DeFi Summer级叙事，预期会达到300B-500B左右的市场空间，仅此就已经有20-50倍的增量预期了，如果再把整个web2 万亿美元的市场预期也算进来，你就一定会知道，现在的AI Agent还处于婴儿襁褓期。别忽略了，DeFi市场的TVL资产锁仓，和目前AI Agent的MCAP价值评估本身区别也很大，AI Agent若加上SaaS 平台经济的乘数效应，想象空间要比DeFi的纯TVL估值要更宏大；5）AI Agent的核心 ai16z + Virtual 两大涡轮增压马车，正在快速虹吸Crypto 市场和AI相关的一切资源。ai16z与其定义成一个项目，不如说是一个大商业IP，它会带动整个AI 赛道其他项目快速进化蝶变，比如诸多提供AI 算力、数据、推理、算法等众AI 平台，还有其他DeFi、Socialfi、预测市场、DePIN、GameFi等等关联领域。最近，ai16z推出Aipool $MetaV 成就了一只在行业默默无闻的Phala Network就是个典型案例。抱紧ai16z大腿不仅是一个口号，而是行业正在ai16z催化下，上演鲶鱼效应的开始。很快，DeFAI、GamfAI、SocialFAI、DePINFAI等都会踏浪而来；6）AI Agent是天生“链下”环境的产物，但“链化”进程已经轰轰烈烈展开了。LLMs大模型的数据训练、Prompt交互过程都在链下，甚至AI Agent背后的数据存储服务、前段UX交互都要依赖链下Twitter、Discord等链下环境。这意味着，AI Agent有极强的“链化”需求，这会产生基于ElizaOS等框架构建新链化项目的需求，比如： $Focai 的诞生；同时也会给传统老公链一些拥抱新增量机会的可能性，比如，@GoPlusSecurity做安全模块插件的集成。就一点，AI Agent打破了过去纯“链上”造乐高堆叠大厦的叙事逻辑，一个揉合链上+链下的全新支撑AI Agent的自主化、可永生、可多模态协作的全新infra构建需求摆上了日程。如此庞大的增量预期，比苦等应用落地这一个被动变量岂不是更有可能性？

为什么一定要对 AI Agent 赛道有信心？

Here is the English translation, with the content within <> left untranslated:

Why should we have confidence in the AI Agent track? Next, I'll share a few points of my thinking:

1) Although similar to the Inscription track, the FOMO focus of the AI Agent track is still on the "asset issuance" feature. But compared to the limitations of engraving on gold, the AI Agent naturally takes "application-first" as its grasp. You may doubt whether a single AI $AIXBT can support a market cap of 500 million, but as a top KOL @aixbt_agent, its growing fan base and the "practicality" of investing based on its analysis strategies...

Author: HaotianWhy should we have confidence in the AI Agent track? Next, I'll share a few points of logical thinking:1) Although similar to the Rune track, the Fomo focus of the AI Agent is still on the "asset issuance" feature, but compared to the limitations of carving on gold, the AI Agent is naturally based on "application-first". You may doubt whether a single AI $AIXBT can support a market cap of 500 million, but @aixbt_agent as a top KOL, its growing fan base and the "practicality" of investing based on its analysis strategies have a good reputation.For a single AI, a good product user experience is the foundation, and then there are other expected stacks on top of it;2) The lightweight deployment of AI Agent's thin applications, the MEME-ization of community issuance, the IGO (GitHub) listing method, etc., have restructured and reshuffled the old technical innovation narrative logic of relying on VC capital to drive the market and finally exit through TGE.The already solidified DEX-&gt;CEX tiered listing industry chain cannot solve the problem of high FDV listing and the difficulty of retail investors' profit expectations, so it simply changes the order, allowing retail investors to have the opportunity to pick up quality chips from the source;3) The emergence of AI Agent is not just stacking a new narrative, it can redeem the old stagnant narrative, for example, the metaverse, which was very vague and ethereal under the previous round of NFT-driven market expectations due to development costs and delivery realization, but in the context of AI Agent, the metaverse becomes more down-to-earth; Also, the artificial Rug pull problem in the DeFi industry can be restructured through the self-management of private keys by AI Agent.AI Agent combined with the old narrative has the power to turn decay into magic, and the ignition of TEE is just the beginning, waiting for "chain abstraction, zkVM, intent centric" and other hot narratives to become the focus of market attention one by one;4) AI Agent currently has a meager $15B market cap in the web3 direction, but catching up with the DeFi Summer narrative, it is expected to reach a market space of around $300B-$500B, which is already a 20-50 times increase. If you also include the entire $trillion web2 market expectation, you will definitely know that AI Agent is still in its infancy.Don't ignore the fact that the TVL asset lock-up of the DeFi market is very different from the current MCAP valuation of AI Agent. With the multiplier effect of the SaaS platform economy, the imagination space of AI Agent may be even greater than the pure TVL valuation of DeFi;5) The two core turbochargers of AI Agent, ai16z + Virtual, are rapidly sucking up all resources related to the Crypto market and AI. Rather than defining ai16z as a project, it is better to say it is a big business IP, which will drive the rapid evolution and transformation of other projects in the AI track, such as various AI computing power, data, reasoning, and algorithm platforms, as well as other related fields such as DeFi, Socialfi, prediction markets, DePIN, and GameFi.Recently, ai16z's launch of Aipool $MetaV has made the previously obscure Phala Network a typical case. Clinging to ai16z's coattails is not just a slogan, but the beginning of the catfish effect unfolding in the industry under ai16z's catalysis. Soon, DeFAI, GamfAI, SocialFAI, DePINFAI, etc. will come in waves;6) AI Agent is a natural product of the "off-chain" environment, but the "on-chain" process has already begun in full swing. The data training of LLMs large models and the Prompt interaction process are all off-chain, and even the data storage services and front-end UX interactions behind AI Agent rely on off-chain environments like Twitter and Discord.This means that AI Agent has a strong "on-chain" demand, which will create the demand for new on-chain projects based on frameworks like ElizaOS, such as the birth of $Focai; at the same time, it may also give traditional old public chains some opportunities to embrace new increments, such as @GoPlusSecurity's integration of security module plugins.In one point, AI Agent has broken the past narrative logic of pure "on-chain" Lego stacking, and a new infrastructure to support the autonomy, immortality, and multi-modal collaboration of AI Agent, combining on-chain and off-chain, has been put on the agenda. With such a huge increment expectation, isn't it more likely than passively waiting for application landing?

Why do we have to have confidence in the AI Agent track?

Here is the English translation:

1. The total market capitalization of Crypto AI tokens reaches $150 billion
Currently, the market capitalization of Crypto AI tokens accounts for only 2.9% of the Altcoin market value, but this ratio will not last too long.
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