Odaily report: According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the number of new non-farm jobs in the US in December 2024 was significantly higher than expected, with the healthcare services, leisure and hospitality, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The unemployment rate declined in December, and wage growth remained robust, indicating a generally healthy job market in the US in 2024. The contribution of US immigration to new employment was significant in 2024, with the annual increase in employment being lower than in 2023 and roughly on par with 2018. However, if Trump's policy of driving out immigrants is implemented after his return to the White House, we expect a decrease in new US employment in 2025. After the release of the December non-farm employment data, the market has lowered its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. We believe the market's pricing of the Fed's interest rate cuts in the second half of this year is limited. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will pause its interest rate cuts at the January policy meeting and may need to wait until the March meeting to provide clearer guidance. However, there is a risk of a CPI surprise and a renewed "Trump trade" in the market before Trump's inauguration, which could lead to a further rise in US bond yields and the US dollar index.