Recently, BTC and the crypto market are in a downward trend. The BTC price has plummeted from the high of $102,724 on the 7th, and after hitting a low of $91,203 on the 10th, it has rebounded to approach $96,000. However, BTC is fluctuating downward again this (13th) morning, currently reported at $93,179, down 0.73% in the past 24 hours.

Crypto Analyst: Post-Halving January Sell-Off is a Normal Phenomenon

The consecutive days of sluggish market have made the market start to doubt whether the bull market has ended prematurely. However, the cryptocurrency analyst Axel Bitblaze, who has 123,000 followers on X, stated that historically, BTC sell-offs in January after a halving are a normal phenomenon, and cited the examples of the surges after the January sell-offs in 2017 and 2021:

Historically, BTC sell-offs in January after a halving are very common.

In January 2017, BTC crashed from $1,185 to $800 (-32.5%)

In January 2021, BTC crashed from $42,000 to $28,000 (-32.9%)

In January 2025, BTC crashed from $103,000 to $92,000

We all know what happened after the sell-offs in 2017 and 2021.

Although Axel Bitblaze stated that the bull market erupted after the January sell-offs in 2017 and 2021, comparing the market declines of the previous two times (2017: -32.5%; 2021: -32.9%), if it's close to that, BTC could potentially see a low of $70,000 this month (103,000*(1-32%)=70,040).

Additionally, the cryptocurrency analyst Stockmoney Lizards, who has nearly 150,000 followers, also posted yesterday (12th) that:

BTC has not yet reached the final speculative/bullish phase, and this cycle will have more momentum within the next 12 months.

BTC Has Shown Upward Trends During Chinese New Year for the Past 10 Years

On the other hand, since 2015, regardless of bull or bear market, there has been a period of upward "red envelope market" during the Chinese New Year period, so perhaps now is a good time for users who want to enter at a low point to consider doing so, with details as follows:

• 2024 (2/8~2/14): $44,349 to $52,043, an increase of 17.3%
• 2023 (1/20~1/29): $21,071 to $23,960, an increase of 13.7%
• 2022 (1/29~2/6): $37,716 to $42,656, an increase of 13.1%
• 2021 (2/10~2/16): $46,420 to $50,689, an increase of 9.2%
• 2020 (1/23~1/29): $8,682 to $9,449, an increase of 8.8%
• 2019 (2/2~2/10): $3,462 to $3,685, an increase of 6.4%
• 2018 (2/15~2/20): $9,449 to $11,786, an increase of 24.7%
• 2017 (1/27~2/1): $918 to $986, an increase of 7.4%
• 2016 (2/6~2/14): $374 to $404, an increase of 8%
• 2015 (2/18~2/24): $234 to $238, an increase of 1.7%

As for the reason for the upward trend, it may be because during the Chinese New Year period, many people use their red envelope money or year-end bonuses to add to their BTC positions, causing BTC to show an upward trend during this 10-year Chinese New Year period.

However, it should be noted that although there has been a so-called "red envelope market" in the past 10 years, it does not mean that an upward trend will necessarily occur during the Chinese New Year period this year. Readers should be cautious about price risks.