Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

Recently, the token prices of the AI Agent sector have generally pulled back.

According to GMGN data, the mainstream AI Agent tokens in the Base ecosystem, such as VIRTUAL, AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, have seen declines of over 39%, 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively in the past 7 days; the mainstream AI Agent tokens in the Solana ecosystem, such as ai16z, ELIZA, swarms, and ARC, have seen declines of over 45%, 48%, and 38% respectively in the past 7 days.

It has been more than 3 months since GOAT initiated the new model of combining AI and Crypto, and ai16z and Virtuals further expanded the crypto AI Agent narrative. Therefore, many in the market believe that the AI Agent hype has come to an end, and those who have not yet cleared their positions have become the "payers" of this "feast", with some even likening this round of AI Agent hype to a "faster-paced Meme token hype".

Has the AI Agent hype come to an end? The answer is not so.

What stage has the AI Agent reached?

It is undeniable that in investment, we must respect the cycle, enter the market before it reaches its peak, and withdraw elegantly before the hype subsides. And the AI Agent is currently in the squat phase before the big jump.

The impact of CEX on prices is diminishing

From the perspective of market sentiment and liquidity, people generally regard the listing of a token on the "Cosmos Giant" Binance as the endpoint for a blockchain-based asset, and when Binance lists the hot tokens of a certain sector, it also means that the sector is reaching a dual peak in market sentiment and liquidity. However, in this round of AI Agent narrative, the impact of CEX listing on token prices may not be as great as imagined.

According to public information, Binance has listed the perpetual contract trading of ai16z and swarms, and only listed AIXBT in the spot trading on January 10th. Although the listing of ai16z and swarms contracts initially caused market FUD and led to price declines, the two tokens have since rebounded; similarly, even though Binance announced the listing of AIXBT spot, the FOMO in the short term of a few hours was followed by a return to normal price levels.

According to Cointelegraph'sstatistics, the proportion of spot cryptocurrency trading volume on DEXs exceeded 20% for the first time on January 7th. As more and more people trade on-chain, the impact of CEXs on the prices of on-chain assets will continue to diminish.

AI Agent is the metaverse of 2025

The world went crazy for the metaverse in 2021, and the world will go crazy for AI Agent in 2025.

The metaverse not only ignited a fire in the web3 field in 2021, but also sparked a craze among web2 internet companies, with the most iconic event being the social software giant Facebook changing its name to Meta and going all-in on the metaverse. And in 2025, Nvidia will be like the Meta of that year, attracting attention in the AI Agent wave, as Nvidia founder Jensen Huang mentioned in his keynote speech at CES 2025 in the US, "Over 30 million developers worldwide will have their own software assistants in the future, or they will fall behind their peers. In addition, AI Agent is expected to become the next robot industry, with a market size of tens of trillions of dollars."

Web3 has always been fond of combining with "hot narratives", from major industry trends in the tech sector to the death of a squirrel in the US. The 2021 metaverse hype in web3 gave birth to companies like Decentraland, which at its peak had a token market cap of over $10 billion, not counting derivative assets. And now, neither ai16z nor virtuals have reached a market cap of $10 billion.

2025 will be the year of the AI Agent explosion, with the traditional web2 tech industry's pursuit of it not yet over, and web3 just getting started.

Is AI Agent a faster-paced version of Meme tokens?

In addition, there is a view in the market that AI Agent should be understood as a faster-paced version of Meme tokens. The two do have some similarities, such as the fair issuance model of AI Agent through pump.fun being similar to the fair minting of Meme tokens; the framework competition of AI Agent is reminiscent of the protocol competition in the Bitcoin ecosystem asset issuance, with overall not much difference between the frameworks but subtle differences; and the quick opening and selling of narratively better assets is similar to the short-term minting and completion of popular Meme token assets.

But there are also differences between the two:

• Higher market acceptance and recognition of AI Agent: This round of AI Agent was born in the fertile soil of Solana Meme, with higher market acceptance, and AI Agent is not the first combination of AI and Crypto, so players have already accepted market education and have higher recognition.

• AI Agent is building from 1 to 100: Meme tokens were born in the "barren soil" of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and their ecosystem building is from 0 to 1; while AI Agent is building from 1 to 100, with Solana already having a sound infrastructure in terms of liquidity, and can also find many references in the AI industry in terms of technology. Therefore, the ecosystem building of AI Agent will be much faster than Meme tokens.

• Broader narrative scope: As mentioned earlier, 2025 will be the year of the AI Agent explosion, and although the AI Agent in web3 is slightly different from the traditional tech industry, it is ultimately within the trend, with a broader market scope and market participants, and is a very long-term narrative that may even break out of the circle.
  

To be frank, Web3 indeed does not have a narrative that never changes, and the AI Agent hype may subside, but at least it is not the time for the bubble to burst now. As for the reason for this large-scale pullback, it may also be because......