The market plunged sharply due to the non-agricultural and expected large-scale BTC sales, and AI is still a hot topic | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: January 6, 2025

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Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.3 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.82%, which is $1.88 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $206.1 billion, a decrease of 0.14% in the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 66.82%.

This week, the price of BTC has shown a downward oscillation, with the current price at $94,496; ETH has shown an upward oscillation, with the current price at $3,247.

CoinMarketCap's top 200 projects, most have declined and a few have increased, among which: XDC has a 7-day increase of 13.75%, AI16Z has a 7-day decrease of 34.42%, FARTCOIN has a 7-day decrease of 45.9%, and BIO has a 7-day decrease of 45.2%.

This week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $496.6 million; the net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $195.3 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on January 11 was 69 (lower than the previous week), with the market sentiment being 6 days of greed and 1 day of neutrality this week.

Market Forecast: This week, the market was affected by the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls, the Fed's confirmation of no rate cut in January, and the news that the US Department of Justice was authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin related to the Silk Road case, resulting in a significant market decline. Some projects in the AI track performed well this week, ETF inflows were generally average, and stablecoins saw negative growth. It is estimated that next week, the market will gradually digest some of the sentiment, and a significant improvement will need to wait for policy guidance after Trump's inauguration. This week, the AI track can be followed continuously.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On January 5, according to DefiLlama data, Raydium's 24-hour trading volume surpassed Uniswap, ranking first at $2.286 billion, while Uniswap's 24-hour trading volume was $2.131 billion;

2. On January 6, Bio Protocol's official announcement stated that with the launch of the current BioDAO, BIO token holders will be able to participate in the Launchpad, including: staking BIO tokens to the new BioDAO to show support; being whitelisted for the new BioDAO; managing BioDAO liquidity and milestone-based incentive measures. The release of BioDAO will become autonomous and community-managed, allowing more BioDAO to flow into the Bio Protocol ecosystem;

3. On January 6, according to official news, EigenLayer announced that it will co-host an AI Agent Hackathon with Eliza Labs (@ai16zdao).

The event will take place from February 22 to March 3, 2025 in downtown Denver, and registration is now open;

4. On January 7, Dennis Porter, co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund, posted on X that the 14th state in the US is now preparing to introduce "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" legislation;

5. On January 8, Aave announced that Aave V3 has been deployed to the Aptos testnet, which is the first time the Aave protocol has been deployed on a non-EVM network. This testnet phase aims to validate the security, stability, and performance of Aave V3 on Aptos, in preparation for a potential mainnet release in the future;

6. On January 9, the US Department of Justice was authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin related to the Silk Road case;

7. On January 10, Cointelegraph reported on social media that the UK Treasury has revised financial regulations to clarify that the crypto assets required for POS (Proof-of-Stake) blockchains (such as Ethereum and Solana) do not constitute a collective investment scheme and are therefore not subject to the usual strict regulations;

8. On January 10, according to Cryptonews, Russia has begun selling the Bitcoin it confiscated in its 2023 investigation of the Infraud hacking group. This move indicates that Moscow hopes to convert over 1,000 Bitcoin into fiat currency;

9. On January 10, according to CNN, New York State Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan ruled on the "hush money" case, ordering the unconditional release of Donald Trump. The ruling found Trump guilty on 34 counts in this case, but given that he was in an important transition period of presidential power, he was unconditionally released without any punishment.

Macroeconomic

1. On January 8, according to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January is 95.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.8%;

2. On January 8, Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer posted that Judge Failla has granted Coinbase's motion for an interlocutory appeal and stayed the district court proceedings. This is a major legal victory for Coinbase, meaning Coinbase will be able to appeal the SEC's allegations against it to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals;

3. On January 9, the outgoing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, stated that he is proud of the work the agency has done and that there is "work to be done" in the less than two weeks before his departure. Gensler reiterated his stance that the crypto space is "rife with non-compliance";

4. On January 9, according to Bitcoin.com, the Director General of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Emotimi Agama, warned that some Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license applicants will be rejected for not meeting regulatory requirements. The SEC first issued crypto licenses to Busha Digital and Quidax Technologies through its Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP) in August 2024;

5. On January 9, the Fed meeting minutes indicated that the US real GDP growth is expected to remain robust in 2024. Since the beginning of 2024, labor market conditions have eased somewhat, but the unemployment rate remains low. The consumer price inflation rate is lower than the previous year, but still slightly higher.

Staff believe that the strikes and hurricane impacts in October restrained employment growth, but after these effects dissipated in November, employment growth received a similar degree of boost. In the third quarter, foreign economic growth picked up, particularly in the euro area and Mexico. However, recent economic indicators suggest that the growth momentum of foreign economies weakened significantly in the fourth quarter, with manufacturing activity sluggish and private consumption spending lackluster.

Inflation in foreign economies continues to ease. In most advanced economies, overall inflation has slowed to near or below target levels, reflecting the pass-through effects of the earlier declines in energy prices. However, in some of these economies, services inflation remains elevated;

6. On January 10, the US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for December were 256,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 160,000, reaching a new high since March 2024. The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for December were 256,000, expected 160,000, and the previous value was revised from 227,000 to 212,000.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period of January 6 to January 10, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $496.6 million; as of January 10, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $21.52 billion, currently holding $19.346 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.948 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $110.383 billion.

The net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $195.3 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. a16z GAMES will hold the SPEEDRUN 004 accelerator program in San Francisco from January 6 to March 23, 2025;

2. Virtuals' first offline gathering for the Chinese-speaking community, Virtuals First CN Community Meetup, will be held in Shanghai on January 13, 13:30 - 17:30;

3. Story will host the "Story China Tour | Shanghai Station" offline event on January 14, 14:00-18:00.

4. CoinDesk will host Consensus Hong Kong in Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025.

Project Progress

1. The Puffer Finance (PUFFER) airdrop period is from 7:00 PM Beijing time on October 14, 2024 to 7:00 PM on January 14, 2025;

2. The L1 blockchain Celo will migrate to Celo L2 on January 16, 2025.

Important Events

1. Google's new advertising policy, which requires crypto ads targeting the UK to be registered with the FCA, will take effect on January 15, 2025;

2. The cryptocurrency-themed film "Crypto Man" directed by Korean director Hyeon Hae-ri will be released on January 15, 2025. The film is adapted from a real-life cryptocurrency collapse event that caused over 50 trillion won (about $349 billion) in losses, and stars the late actor Song Jae-rim.

Token Unlocks

1. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on January 15, worth about $86.68 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply;

2. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.38 million tokens on January 17, worth about $17.22 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply;

3. Ondo (ONDO) will unlock 257 million tokens on January 19, worth about $32 billion, accounting for 25.73% of the circulating supply.

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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