Author: Golem, Odaily
Recently, the token prices of AI Agent projects have generally retreated.
According to GMGN data, the mainstream AI Agent tokens in the Base ecosystem, such as VIRTUAL, AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, have seen declines of over 39%, 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively in the past 7 days; the mainstream AI Agent tokens in the Solana ecosystem, such as ai16z, ELIZA, swarms, and ARC, have seen declines of over 45%, 48%, and 38% respectively in the past 7 days.
It has been more than 3 months since GOAT initiated the new model of combining AI and Crypto, and ai16z and Virtuals further promoted the crypto AI Agent narrative. Therefore, many in the market believe that the AI Agent hype has come to an end, and those who have not yet cleared their positions have become the "payers" of this "feast". Some even liken this round of AI Agent craze to a "faster-paced Meme token craze".
Is the AI Agent craze coming to an end? The answer is not so.
What stage has the AI Agent reached?
It is undeniable that in investment, we must respect the cycle, enter the market before it reaches its peak, and withdraw gracefully before the craze subsides. And the AI Agent is currently in the squat phase before the big jump.
The impact of CEX on prices is diminishing
From the perspective of market sentiment and liquidity, people generally regard the listing of a token on the "Cosmos Giant" Binance as the endpoint for a blockchain-based asset. When Binance lists the hot tokens of a certain sector, it also means that the sector is reaching a dual peak in market sentiment and liquidity. After a period of FOMO, the market will then return to calm. However, in this round of AI Agent narrative, the impact of CEX listing on token prices may not be as great as imagined.
According to public information, Binance has already listed the perpetual contract trading of ai16z and swarms, and only listed the spot trading of AIXBT on January 10th. Although the listing of ai16z and swarms contracts initially caused market FUD and led to price declines, the two tokens have since rebounded; similarly, even though Binance announced the listing of AIXBT spot, the price only experienced a short-term FOMO of a few hours before returning to normal levels.
According to Cointelegraph's statistics, on January 7th, the proportion of spot cryptocurrency trading volume on DEXes exceeded 20% for the first time. As more and more people trade on-chain, the impact of CEXes on the prices of on-chain assets will continue to diminish.
AI Agent is the metaverse of 2025
The world went crazy for the metaverse in 2021, and the world will go crazy for AI Agent in 2025.
The metaverse not only ignited a craze in the web3 field in 2021, but also sparked a frenzy among web2 internet companies, with the most iconic event being the social software giant Facebook changing its name to Meta and going all-in on the metaverse. In 2025, Nvidia will be like Meta back then, attracting attention in the AI Agent wave. In his keynote speech at CES 2025, Nvidia founder Jensen Huang mentioned that "in the future, more than 30 million developers worldwide will have their own software assistants, otherwise they will fall behind their industry peers. Moreover, AI Agent is expected to become the next robot industry, with a market size of tens of trillions of dollars."
Web3 has always liked to combine with "popular narratives", from hot industry trends in the tech sector to the death of a squirrel in the US. In 2021, the metaverse craze in web3 gave birth to companies like Decentraland, which had a market cap of over $10 billion at its peak, not counting its derivative assets. And now, neither ai16z nor virtuals have reached a market cap of $10 billion.
2025 will be the year of the AI Agent explosion, with the traditional web2 tech industry's pursuit of it not yet over, and web3 just getting started.
Is AI Agent a faster-paced version of Meme tokens?
Additionally, there is a view in the market that AI Agent should be understood as a faster-paced version of Meme tokens. The two do have some similarities, such as the fair issuance model of AI Agent through pump.fun, which is similar to the fair minting of Meme tokens; the framework competition of AI Agent is reminiscent of the protocol competition in the Bitcoin ecosystem asset issuance, where the overall differences are not significant but there are subtle differences; the quick opening and selling of the better-narrated targets is similar to the short-term minting of popular Meme token assets.
But there are also differences between the two:
AI Agent has higher market acceptance and recognition: This round of AI Agent was born in the fertile soil of Solana Meme, with higher market acceptance, and AI Agent is not the first combination of AI and Crypto, as the market has already accepted previous education, with higher recognition.
AI Agent is building from 1 to 100: Meme tokens were born in the "barren soil" of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and their ecosystem building is from 0 to 1; while AI Agent is building from 1 to 100, in terms of liquidity, Solana already has a sound infrastructure; in terms of technology, there are also many references in the AI industry. Therefore, the ecosystem building of AI Agent will be much faster than Meme tokens.
The narrative scope is broader: As mentioned earlier, 2025 will be the year of the AI Agent explosion, and although the AI Agent in web3 is slightly different from the traditional tech industry, it is ultimately within the trend, with a broader market scope and participants, a very long-term narrative, and even a chance to break out of the circle.
To be frank, Web3 indeed does not have a narrative that never changes, and the AI Agent craze may subside, but at least it's not the time for the bubble to burst yet. As for the reason for this widespread pullback, it may also be because......
