Last week, BTC saw a clear pullback, with overall pressure and volatility. On January 7, the BTC price rebounded to $102,724.38 but then came under pressure and declined, as the US dollar index strengthened and global asset liquidity fluctuated, leading to significant volatility in crypto assets led by BTC. BTC price dipped to $89,256.69 on January 13. Currently, the BTC price has recovered to around $94,915. On January 13, the ETH price also fell below the $3,000 support level, dropping to $2,920, and is currently fluctuating around $3,180 (the above data is from Binance spot, as of 3:00 pm on January 14).
The three major US stock indexes had mixed performance. As of the close on January 13, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86%, the S&P 500 gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.38%. Spot ETFs saw $718 million in outflows over the past 12 trading days, in stark contrast to the nearly $2 billion inflows seen in early January.
Macro Interpretation
Non-farm data exceeds expectations, the Fed may pause the rate cut cycle
On January 11, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the December non-farm employment report, with data significantly exceeding expectations. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls were 256,000, higher than the previous value of 212,000 and far exceeding the expected 160,000, while the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the previous value of 4.2% and also lower than the expected 4.2%.
The data shows that the job market continues to grow strongly. The high-interest rate environment has not significantly constrained economic growth, and the market generally expects the Fed to shift its policy focus to curbing inflation. Currently, the CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to 6.4%, and investment banks have revised down their expectations for rate cuts in 2025, with Bank of America even believing there is no hope for rate cuts this year, and the possibility of rate hikes in the first half of the year to address the pressure of rising inflation.
Against this backdrop, the market is mixed. The US dollar index has risen strongly to 109.65, approaching 110, and London gold has risen to $2,689.88 per ounce. The one-year and ten-year US bond yields have fallen to 4.223% and 4.762% respectively, and the major US stock indexes continued the adjustment trend that began on December 18, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 falling 2.34%, 1.86%, and 1.94% respectively. The policy of the Trump administration after January 20 has become a focus of the market, but the market generally believes that the short-term trend of the US stock market may fluctuate, and although the trading environment will be complex in the first half of the year, the long-term upside potential remains.
This week, the Fed will release several important economic data, and the market is watching the inflation level
The non-farm employment data far exceeded expectations, leading the market to lower its expectations for rate cuts. The potential restoration of tariff policies during the Trump era has further exacerbated inflation concerns. As a result, US stocks have plummeted, and the crypto market has also come under significant pressure. The upcoming release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and initial jobless claims data may bring even greater volatility to the market. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in the macroeconomic environment and respond cautiously to potential risks and opportunities.
Market Information
Standard Chartered Bank obtains a digital asset license in Luxembourg, accelerating the expansion of its crypto custody business
On January 9, the leading global financial institution Standard Chartered Bank announced that it will launch cryptocurrency services in the European Union, focusing on custody services for BTC and ETH. Standard Chartered Bank's new services mainly provide storage and protection functions for digital assets, without involving trading. The bank had previously launched similar crypto custody services in the UAE in 2024.
Analysts point out that Standard Chartered Bank's move not only reflects the growing demand for digital assets from institutional investors, but also reflects the EU's supportive attitude towards compliant crypto services. As its global strategy progresses, Standard Chartered Bank is gradually consolidating its leading position in the digital asset field, setting a benchmark for financial institutions to embrace cryptocurrencies.
Bhutan's Mindful City announces that it will include multiple cryptocurrencies as national strategic reserves, which will provide a new path for the small country's economic development
On January 8, Bhutan's Mindful City officially announced that it will include BTC, ETH, and BNB in its asset reserves, and also leverage the advantage of hydropower green energy to conduct large-scale BTC mining activities, currently holding over 11,000 BTC worth about $1 billion, ranking among the top five global BTC reserves. Bhutan's model may inspire other energy-rich countries to use idle energy for mining and accumulate digital asset reserves.
Nigeria strengthens crypto license regulation, accelerating market compliance
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently warned that some virtual asset service providers (VASPs) face the risk of having their license applications rejected for failing to meet regulatory requirements. Since launching the Accelerated Registration and Inclusion Program (ARIP) in 2024, companies including Busha Digital and Quidax Technologies have obtained operating licenses, indicating that Nigeria is accelerating the establishment of a compliant crypto market framework.
SEC Director General Emotimi Agama stated that the new regulations are in the presidential approval stage and are expected to drive stricter market monitoring and education, helping Nigeria transform from one of the largest crypto markets globally to a regulatory benchmark.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offer or purchase offer invitation to residents of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may have great risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
