Author: Nelson Wang
Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher
On January 2, Muneeb Ali, the co-founder and CEO of Stacks, the leading Bitcoin second-layer (L2) project, changed his X (formerly Twitter) bio from "Founder @Stacks" to "Wartime Founder @Stacks". This change indicates that Ali recognizes 2025 as a critical year for Stacks to shift from the 2024 technical upgrades to market expansion and user growth. Last year, Stacks completed the long-awaited Nakamoto Upgrade, which significantly improved the project's speed and achieved 100% finality for all transactions on Bitcoin.
Ali believes that this strategic shift is particularly important as the crypto market enters a bull run due to the election of Donald Trump as president, and develops in a more favorable policy environment.
"Changing the bio is a signal to the community that 'we recognize this is a different time than before, and we need to move faster and be more aggressive'," Ali said in an interview with CoinDesk. "It's not that there won't be product upgrades in 2025, but it's fair to say that product will no longer be the core focus of our work."
Here, Ali shares what decisions he would make differently if he could re-plan the Nakamoto Upgrade; his candid views on the slow progress of the Lightning Network in driving Bitcoin payments; his expectations for Bitcoin's price trajectory by 2025; and his ultimate goal of onboarding one billion people onto Stacks. Additionally, Ali will be speaking at the Consensus Hong Kong conference in February.
This interview has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
Q: How is the Nakamoto Upgrade going?
Ali: I still believe Bitcoin desperately needs a truly excellent L2. One reason is that the user experience (UX) on the Bitcoin first layer (L1) is not going to change; you can't achieve fast and low-cost transactions on L1. This is why many people are interested in the Lightning Network. It's been around for a while and has some adoption, but it's not particularly high. To be frank, that's the reality.
So, I think we still need a Bitcoin transaction network that can provide lightning-fast speeds and an excellent user experience. You could argue that even Solana's achievements in this regard are far superior to Lightning or any other solution. So, one of our goals is to build a Solana-like Bitcoin L2 that can enable near-instant transfers of any funds and provide an excellent user experience. I think the Nakamoto Upgrade is helping us move towards that goal.
Q: If you could re-do the Nakamoto Upgrade, what would you do differently?
Ali: The Nakamoto Upgrade rollout was done in multiple stages. First, we completed the core consensus capital migration in April. Then, we launched the fast blocks feature, but more complex transactions couldn't benefit from it. After that, we released another version that allowed complex transactions to also enjoy the benefits of the upgrade. However, looking back at the whole process, it was more like a "staged rollout". Each stage raised high expectations, but was met with a "not fully delivered" reaction. By the time the full functionality was finally live, I think it did dampen the initial excitement to some extent.
Q: Will developer interest in Bitcoin be rekindled by 2025?
Ali: I believe so. Bitcoin is like a unique entity that will never go away, no matter how the market changes. Even if you look at the dynamics of the public markets, you'll find more and more publicly listed companies building Bitcoin reserves.
Perhaps a year ago, Bitcoin L2s were generating more enthusiasm, but that enthusiasm seems to have cooled a bit. However, I believe Bitcoin's fundamental importance is so great that people will ultimately gravitate back to it.
Q: How has Trump impacted Bitcoin's development?
Ali: Very significantly. Look at the advisors he's chosen, like David Sachs, who will be the crypto and AI czar. He's a major limited partner (LP) at Multicoin Capital and is very well-versed in cryptocurrencies and the latest developments in Solana, so I think this will have a huge impact. The other advisors Trump has selected are similar. For the past four years, the U.S. government and regulators have been almost adversarial towards us. Now, I think they will actively support and encourage the development of this space, and this 180-degree shift is very important and beneficial for the industry.
Additionally, if the Bitcoin reserve plans are actually implemented, whether nationwide or just in certain states (like Texas or Wyoming), it will send a very strong signal globally.
Q: What's your prediction for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025?
Ali: I still believe in the four-year cycle theory, and I think the current cycle will end in Q4 2025. Although there are some reasons to believe the cycle may not be as dramatic as in the past, I personally still hold this belief. If Bitcoin doesn't reach $150,000 by the end of the year, I'd be surprised. I do think we could see $200,000, which would be my upper-end expectation.
Q: When will fast Bitcoin payments be realized?
Ali: We're working hard to drive this forward. I think the Lightning Network deserves credit - there are indeed many loyal users using it. But the technology itself is quite complex, and the integration is not easy either. Additionally, the Bitcoin community has basically focused its attention on one project. I think a better approach is to allow multiple experiments to run in parallel and see which ones attract more attention. I'm glad to see that there are now many different Bitcoin L2 projects launching, finally allowing for multiple experiments to run concurrently. If the Lightning Network integration is too difficult, let other projects try to solve this problem.
If you attend Bitcoin conferences or hear from some top figures like [MicroStrategy founder] Michael Saylor, you'll find they often view the Lightning Network as the only solution. They rarely mention other L2 projects. I think this is to some extent because some L2s have their own tokens, and the Bitcoin community is not fond of those tokens. However, I feel this attitude is at least starting to loosen up now.
Q: What are you excited to discuss at the Consensus Hong Kong conference?
Ali: How to bring Bitcoin to one billion people? This is something that excites me and drives our technical decisions. If that's your goal, you'll immediately focus on L2, because on Bitcoin's first layer (L1), even a billion people couldn't simultaneously own unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs). I feel many Bitcoin enthusiasts may not realize that Bitcoin's L1 alone cannot support a billion people simultaneously owning UTXOs.
This is not discussed much in our industry. Many have already accepted the model of onboarding users to Bitcoin through Coinbase, Binance, or ETFs. But that's not what Bitcoin's true meaning is about. Bitcoin's core is decentralization, self-custody, and empowering people to directly control their own assets. We must not forget this mission.
