Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In the past few days, WeChat has pushed a report on the public account creation review in 2024. I also took a look at the traffic performance of Talk Li Talk Outside over the past year, with a total of 489,000 article views throughout the year. As shown in the figure below.
Reflecting back, in the past 1 year, we have published more than 200 articles through Talk Li Talk Outside. Compared to the 4-6 hours of input and effort invested in this matter (writing articles) every day, the annual readership of less than 500,000 may not be as high as the traffic of some random short articles or tweets from certain KOLs.
However, I personally am not too concerned about traffic, as traffic is just a by-product of doing this. Maintaining the original intention is the best, as I wrote in the 2023 annual e-book "Blockchain Thinking Advancement" of Talk Li Talk Outside: My purpose is simple, which is to always maintain a learning state when I have free time, and to effectively organize and output my daily learning summary and personal experience, and at the same time, to help those who are interested in this field, even if it's just 1 person, it's good to be able to help 1 person.
Moreover, recently, I have also shared the adjustment direction of Talk Li Talk Outside this year in the group, which is mainly "to do less" this year, not only in the matter of self-media, but also including "to do less" in trading, so I will not be too concerned about the traffic issue of self-media, just go with the flow.
In addition, I also quite like the sentence pushed in the public account review report: Creation is a lonely perseverance. In short, without asking where it comes from, without asking where it goes, where the heart is directed, walk on.
In yesterday's (January 15) article, we mainly mentioned the issues of Soneium, Xiaohongshu, Ripple (XRP) and CPI. That is, after the CPI was officially announced last night (Beijing time), the data of 2.9 met market expectations, which to a certain extent alleviated the inflation concerns of Americans, so the stock market and the Altcoin market experienced a relatively strong rebound after the data release, with BTC breaking through the $100,000 mark again and XRP hitting a historical high of $3 for the first time.
As of the time of writing this article, the price of BTC is still maintained around $99,000, as shown in the figure below.
As for XRP, we still hold the basic view in yesterday's article, that this Altcoin still has relatively good prospects in the long run, but we also need to pay attention to the price risks in the short term. According to the latest news disclosure from Watcher Guru, the SEC has today re-appealed the XRP litigation case, requesting that XRP be classified as a security. As shown in the figure below.
After supplementing the content involved in yesterday's article, let's continue to share a few other things today:
1. Onchain Economy ETF
It is reported that VanEck (a fund company managing over $118 billion in assets) has applied for a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) called the Onchain Economy ETF (directly translated as the Onchain Economy ETF), which is said to target crypto infrastructure rather than Altcoins. Therefore, the structure of this fund avoids direct full investment in Altcoins, but still maintains exposure to the digital asset market it tracks, which also means that institutions are making their first foray into actively managed Altcoin funds.
According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing on January 15, the Onchain Economy ETF seeks to allocate at least 80% of its assets to Digital Transformation Companies and Digital Asset Instruments. As shown in the figure below.
So far, in the Altcoin field, institutions can mainly invest in 3 types of ETFs, namely BTC ETF, ETH ETF, and Index ETF (such as Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund). But these three types are not managed by a group of people who choose to buy the corresponding assets, while the Onchain Economy ETF applied for by VanEck will become the first actively managed ETF in the Altcoin field.
In simple terms, the Onchain Economy ETF will be actively managed by some of VanEck's analysts, but their investment scope will not be limited to BTC and ETH, but will be able to invest in a wider range of assets, including Altcoin-related infrastructure (such as companies).
2. What other factors can become catalysts for the bull market in the near future?
- Trump's inauguration
This also seems to be something that many people are looking forward to. As mentioned in the previous article (January 15), it is said that Trump is expected to sign an executive order next week after taking office to abolish Altcoin banking and abolish the bank accounting policy that allows banks holding Altcoins to list them as liabilities.
If the Trump administration can indeed introduce some policies favorable to Altcoins, then this may give the green light to the further prosperity of the Altcoin market. Also, if Staking can be allowed in regulation this year, it will also be a good positive factor for the currently sluggish ETH, and DeFi will also see further revival and development.
- FTX repayment plan
Regarding the compensation issue of FTX, we have introduced it several times in previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside, interested readers can directly search the historical articles to review. According to the news a few days ago, it is said that the FTX repayment plan has now had a preliminary distribution schedule, and creditors with claims less than $50,000 are expected to receive about $1.2 billion in compensation, with the first repayment expected to start in February 2025.
If this matter proceeds smoothly, then some of the funds may return to the Altcoin market, injecting some new liquidity, including generating some positive sentiment.
- Approval of more Altcoin ETFs
Currently, the most anticipated or favored may be the SOL ETF and XRP ETF. But as mentioned in the previous article, who will eventually become the third ETF to be officially approved after BTC and ETH is still unknown, but based on the current comprehensive news, it is just a matter of time.
Once new ETFs continue to be approved, it will certainly further boost investor confidence and enhance market liquidity from a sentiment perspective. And the approval of more Altcoin ETFs may also, to some extent, help catalyze new Altcoin season opportunities.
- Continued participation of institutions
In addition to the ETF aspect (pay more attention to the inflow/outflow of ETF-related funds), one of the areas we are more optimistic about this year is the RWA field.
Of course, it also includes changes in the holdings of Altcoins like BTC by institutions like MicroStrategy. It can be foreseen that as the depth of institutional participation in the Altcoin field deepens, the volatility of this field in the future may be closer to the stock market (the U.S. stock market), but this does not mean that the volatility will not be large, because regardless of the rise and fall of the market, institutions can still make money, such as when the market is in a downward trend, they can still hedge risks through options.
However, one fundamental fact remains unchanged, which is that as more and more institutions choose to include BTC in their asset allocation, this will further consolidate Bitcoin's position, which is a positive factor for the overall stability of the crypto market in the long run.
In addition to the aspects we mentioned above, in terms of price trend (weekly chart), Bitcoin's growth trajectory currently still looks good, continuing to move within an upward channel. If we are optimistic, there is still about 12% upside space, unless the current channel trend is broken. As shown in the figure below.
Additionally, looking at the historical returns, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin's overall performance this month should also be good. The Spring Festival in 2021, 2022, and 2024 was in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 was in late January, and the corresponding BTC overall performance was relatively good. As shown in the figure below.
However, historical data is just a reference, and whether history can really repeat itself, we will know by the end of the month. But one of the biggest fundamental catalysts this year is still the macroeconomic factors, especially the need to continue to pay attention to the Fed's policy.
Finally, it is still necessary to remind you that even though we have reviewed the above catalysts and are still optimistic about the overall market performance going forward, we should still maintain awe of the market, because no one knows what new black swan events may occur next. Only by managing your position and mentality well, maintaining focus, and going with the flow can you maintain long-term returns in the ever-changing market.
