Yesterday, at 21:30 Beijing time, the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the CPI in December 2024 increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from the previous value of 2.7%, the highest level since July last year. The core CPI in December increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 3.3%. After the release of the December inflation data, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January remained unchanged. As of January 15 local time, the "Fed Watch" data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January was 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 2.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by March was 72%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut was 27.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut was 0.7%. In addition, Trump is scheduled to be sworn in on January 20, and the new administration may quickly implement a series of policies. Market participants are weighing the potential risks of inflationary tariffs, immigration policies, and the impact of Trump's commitment to making the US a global cryptocurrency center. Trump is expected to issue an executive order on his first day in office, which may involve addressing the issue of the decentralization of the cryptocurrency industry and the repeal of the controversial cryptocurrency accounting standard SAB121. In the cryptocurrency sector, after the release of the CPI data, Bitcoin soared, reaching $99,800, just $200 away from the $100,000 mark, before stopping its rise. Although it has since retreated slightly, it has not prevented Bitcoin from continuing to rise. Around 4 am this morning, the price of Bitcoin reached a high of $100,866, the first time it has broken through the $100,000 mark since its pullback from the high on January 7. As of the time of writing, the price is $99,242, an increase of about 2.51% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin 4H chart: According to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current price is running near the upper band, indicating that the market is currently in an overbought area, and the price approaching the upper band may signal a potential pullback or consolidation in the near future. If the price pulls back to the middle band, it will provide stronger support. According to the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the KDJ three-line values are in the overbought area and have formed a death cross by crossing downward. If the J-line value accelerates its downward decline, the price will likely see a pullback. According to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the DIF line is above the DEA line, indicating a strong bullish trend. However, the red MACD histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening, and a short-term pullback is likely to occur. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross, it may trigger a bearish signal. Bitcoin 1H chart: According to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 1H chart, the current price has already broken through the upper band, which is usually a signal of an overbought market, and there may be a certain risk of a short-term pullback. The middle band as a support line, if the price falls back to the vicinity of the middle band, it may receive support. According to the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 1H chart, the K-line value is above the D-line value, and the J-line value is also the same, indicating that the market is currently in a bullish state, but has already exceeded the overbought area. If the J-line value starts to decline, and the K-line value and D-line value form a death cross, it may lead to a price pullback. According to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 1H chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are crossing downward, and the green MACD histogram is gradually increasing, indicating that the upward momentum of the market is weakening, and there is a certain risk of a pullback. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross, it will further confirm the possibility of a pullback. In summary, the current trend is showing a strong bullish momentum, but due to the interruption of MACD momentum and the KDJ indicator being in the overbought area, there may be a pullback or consolidation. If the price falls below the middle band of the pullback Bollinger Bands or experiences a significant decline, it may find short-term support. In conclusion, the wizard suggests the following: Short Bitcoin at the current price of $99,200-$99,400, with a target of $97,600-$96,400, and a stop-loss at $99,800. Writing time: (2025-01-16, 19:00) (Article by the Wizard of Coins)