XRP ETF Approval Probability Rises to 70% on Polymarket

The approval rate for an XRP ETF has increased to 70% today on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket.

This optimism has increased after XRP reached an All-Time-High earlier today, hitting $3.39 for the first time in nearly seven years.

Also Read: Thailand to Block Polymarket Due to Illegal Cryptocurrency Betting

Increasing Optimism About XRP ETF Approval

With the success of the Bitcoin ETF in the US in 2024, many asset management firms have filed with the SEC for various Altcoin ETFs. The current bull market and strong support from Trump for the cryptocurrency industry have increased demand from retail investors for digital asset-based funds. This optimism is reflected in the market performance of XRP, as this Altcoin reached a record high today after gaining over 40% this week.

Major investment banks like JPMorgan have recently predicted that Solana and XRP ETFs could attract over $14 billion in inflows by 2025. Based on this projection, there is strong expectation that an ETF for XRP could be approved this year.

"JPMorgan says alt-coin ETFs will bring in $14 billion in the first year, $3-6 billion for Solana and $4-8 billion for XRP. My team hasn't made an official forecast yet but this seems like a pretty reasonable projection. Approval would have to come first, though,"

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote.

Meanwhile, the betting rate on Polymarket has also risen to 70% today. This is notable as a week ago the betting rate was below 50%. The cryptocurrency community is clearly becoming increasingly confident that an XRP ETF is just a matter of time.

Also Read: CFTC Subpoenas Coinbase Over Polymarket

SEC Remains the Biggest Obstacle

Currently, four applications for XRP ETFs are pending in the US - WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares. The biggest hurdle for these applications is the SEC. Based on the regulator's latest appeal, the SEC is clearly still pushing US lawmakers to consider XRP a security. However, this challenge may not last long.

With the inauguration of President-elect Trump next week, Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and Ripple's biggest adversary, is expected to resign. Trump is also expected to reform the SEC's legal framework. Therefore, there is high expectation that the SEC will drop its prolonged lawsuit against Ripple. This is why the prospect of an XRP ETF is becoming inevitable, and even Ripple's CEO thinks so.

"As predicted, the SEC's appeal is just a repetition of failed arguments - and is likely to be ignored by the next administration. We will respond formally in due course. For now, know this: the SEC's lawsuit is just noise. A new era of pro-innovation regulation is coming, and Ripple is thriving,"

Ripple's General Counsel Stuart Alderoty wrote.

However, it is almost certain that XRP will not be the first Altcoin to have an ETF in 2025. That distinction may go to Litecoin. As BeInCrypto previously reported, Nasdaq has filed to list a Litecoin ETF by Canary Capital.

Overall, the prospects for an XRP ETF are becoming stronger, but regulators still need to address some hurdles to achieve this.

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