Author: sky53 ττ Source: X, @sky_gpt

One-minute reveal: Chain analysis found the $TRUMP whales. Let's take a look at the token distribution and whale activities behind it, and you may find out if $TRUMP is about to be sold.

The market maker of $TRUMP is Wintermute!

First, $TRUMP was officially launched on January 19th at 10 am, so we'll start the analysis from that day's data.

I will divide the on-chain analysis of $TRUMP into 5 dimensions based on the token distribution:

1. Holder address analysis

2. Behavioral economics

3. Smart contract

4. Top3 profitable address analysis

5. Top3 holder address analysis

Let's start with the "holder address analysis" and see how $TRUMP is doing.

1. Holder address analysis

The main external market maker is Wintermute:

• 9un5wqE3q4oCjyrDkwsdD48KteCJitQX5978Vh7KKxHo

• AC5RDfQFmDS1deWZos921JfqscXdByf8BKHs5ACWjtW2

• FWznbcNXWQuHTawe9RxvQ2LdCENssh12dsznf4RiouN5

There is also a suspected whale address:

• 2hrFEWiLwC2mrBd9cu3cFZEh1hKQ86y7AozE4MyiZxMm

• A3ZcnXcCnLDWsCgxMDryqFPLCP6dpMGEs5eaHHwjm6Sg

Trump Group's main addresses (i.e., the whales' addresses):

• 5e2qRc1DNEXmyxP8qwPwJhRWjef7usLyi7v5xjqLr5G7

• GRvmQxtFRqtQZYaeF8bUqH8FrDHoK5Eabs5aYyU34bPg

• A8nPhpCJqtqHdqUk35Uj9Hy2YsGXFkCZGuNwvkD3k7VC

As you can see, these wallets have very high holdings, indicating that $TRUMP is a heavily manipulated token.

2. Behavioral economics

From the analysis of transaction frequency:

• Retail investors with 0-1kU account for the majority of transactions.

• In terms of transaction volume, traders with 1kU to 100wU are the main force.

• Transactions of over 1wU are fewer, but account for more than 95% of the total volume.

Retail investors with smaller capital tend to chase the trend and trade frequently, while whales buy and hold, with fewer transactions.

From the analysis of whale activities:

Except for an address named Trump whale that is still buying, many whales have started to sell, with relatively uniform sell amounts, possibly executing a trading plan.

3. Smart contract analysis

This is a very basic Solana token. The control is centralized, the token data is immutable, and the creator has only left a storage link pointing to the content. There are no complex functions and no special security design. Overall, it looks more like a promotional or topic token, and investment requires caution.

4. Top3 profitable address analysis

Top1 profitable address (bought early, gradually reduced position)

Single token total profit: +$40.7M (+5528%), about $40.7 million, the single token has increased 55 times. $36.3M has been cashed out, and $4.4M is still unsold, with a cash-out ratio of 8/9.

I checked the holdings of this address, and there are not many effective ones, I don't know why the single token $TRUMP earned so much, it may be one of the multiple accounts of a certain degen.

• Address: 3AWDTDGZiW8joyfA52LKL7GUWLoKBCBUBLUE5JoWgBCu

Top2 profitable address (bought a lot, traded on the right side, will also buy the dips to lower the cost)

Single token total profit: +$31.5M (+6213.6%), about $31.5 million, the single token has increased less than 1 time. A skilled trader on the right side, good at buying the dips to lower the cost.

I checked the holdings of this address, and it has bought a lot of tokens that went to zero, but it also spent $1.3 million to buy Trump's wife's token, and it bought it quite early.

• Address: 3AWDTDGZiW8joyfA52LKL7GUWLoKBCBUBLUE5JoWgBCu

Top3 profitable address (bought early, sold a lot)

Single token total profit: +$28.4M (+98.7%), about $28.4 million, the single token has increased less than 1 time. Mainly relies on early buying and large holdings to profit.

I checked its other operations, which are mainly some tokens from pool withdrawals, but we can track the addresses it transferred to.

• Address: GiQtBSJ8utNu9qQ9seCUD6bye5AUH4sesSBP9hEHZFVx

5. Top3 holder address analysis

Top1 holder

This address is one of the Trump Group's addresses, holding 80% of $TRUMP. It recently bought Trump's wife's token and MAGA, which are worth tracking, similar to an official on-chain shill.

• Address: 2RH6rUTPBJ9rUDPpuV9b8z1YL56k1tYU6Uk5ZoaEFFSK

Top2 holder

This is a Binance address, holding 4.26% of $TRUMP, often buying US president-related tokens (such as HERO, MAGA), which have certain tracking value.

• Address: 5tzFkiKscXHK5ZXCGbXZxdw7gTjjD1mBwuoFbhUvuAi9

Top3 holder

Holding 1.45%, has participated in pool withdrawals, may be a "sickle" address.

• Address: GRvmQxtFRqtQZYaeF8bUqH8FrDHoK5Eabs5aYyU34bPg

This is the on-chain data analysis of $TRUMP.