The new U.S. President delivered his inaugural address in the early hours of the morning, with the global community focusing on whether he would mention the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve or other crypto policies. However, did not mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in his speech, and the policy documents released by the White House did not list cryptocurrencies as a current priority. This has disappointed the community, and the cryptocurrency market has also been affected, experiencing a correction.

Arthur Hayes: I don't think Trump will establish a Bitcoin reserve

Regarding 's failure to mention the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes seems unsurprised. In a recent interview, he expressed skepticism about the administration establishing a Bitcoin reserve:

I don't think will push for the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve. At the end of the day, I don't understand how borrowing money to buy coin aligns with any of 's policy positions.

Hayes stated that while he hopes his prediction is wrong, he pointed out that with the midterm elections approaching, the administration has very limited time to push for major policy changes, and the pressure to allocate funds could make it difficult to find resources to launch a Bitcoin reserve program. He further noted that the competition for government funding is fierce:

"The government's borrowing capacity is limited, and beyond a certain point, it could disrupt the bond market. Will you borrow money to buy coin, or will you invest in healthcare for the elderly, or increase military spending to appease the defense industry?"

Hayes added, "Although the community sees this as important, the government has many other stakeholders who want this funding to go into their pockets."

The probability of Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve has dropped to 36%

According to data from the prediction market Polymarket Polymarket, the probability of establishing a Bitcoin reserve within the first 100 days of his term has significantly decreased from 60% before the inauguration to 36%, a reduction of 24%, indicating a clear decline in market confidence.

The market currently has over $2.86 million in participation, providing a meaningful reference point.

Potential timeline for the Bitcoin reserve to be implemented

Experts have differing views on whether would need to purchase additional coin to establish a national reserve. Some believe that could simply sign an executive order to transfer the coin held in the Department of Justice's wallets to a new government reserve wallet and pledge not to sell it, symbolizing the establishment of a coin reserve without additional spending.

However, others argue that pushing for this policy is not an easy task. According to the U.S. legislative process, if were to pursue it through an executive order, it would likely take until the second half of 2025 at the earliest to be implemented; if it were to go through Congress, the earliest estimate is the second half of 2026.

Multiple U.S. states introduce Bitcoin reserve bills

Compared to the federal government's progress, the community is more focused on the possibility of state governments taking the lead in establishing coin reserves. Currently, several states, including Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, and North Dakota, are actively considering relevant legislation.

Dennis Porter, a co-founder of the coin advocacy organization "Satoshi Action Fund" (SAF), stated that at least 13 states are currently working on "strategic coin reserve" legislation. He said earlier this month:

It's almost a 100% certainty that a U.S. state will purchase coin within the next 4 months.

Whether state governments can successfully push for legislation and establish coin reserves will be a key focus for the future.