Bitcoin risks starting a prolonged downtrend this year as a series of BTC price indicators are nearing the sell-off zone. A recent study from the blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant published on January 24 warned that the Bitcoin Cycle Index (IBCI) is signaling the end of the Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoin Indicator Basket Reaches "Distribution Region" Bitcoin has many high price targets for 2025, with forecasts of $150,000 or more becoming increasingly common. However, on-chain data paints a different picture, CryptoQuant said. "The Bitcoin Cycle Index (IBCI) has reached the distribution region for the first time in 8 months, nearing the end of the range," CryptoQuant analyst Gaah said. IBCI is one of seven on-chain indicators, including some of the most popular ones for tracking the BTC price trend, such as the Puell Multiple, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Overall, this index provides a general idea of the progress in the BTC price cycle, including when macro tops or bottoms are likely to occur. Gaah currently says Bitcoin "may be nearing the cycle top, but there is not 100% confirmation yet." "For IBCI to reach 100%, all the components in the index must reach their historical distribution ranges. The same is true for tracking the market bottom," he continued.

Historically, when IBCI reaches 100%, the market tends to enter a corrective phase and develop into a bear market, but the current situation suggests there may still be room for growth before a clear market top is reached.

Not all the components that make up this index are signaling danger for Bitcoin bulls. The Puell Multiple, a measure of the value of BTC issued daily compared to the 365-day moving average, remains well below the classic overbought level of 6 or higher. IBCI also entered the macro risk zone in early 2024, a brief event that ultimately did not lead to a prolonged downtrend.

BTC Price Could Dip Below $90,000 Looking back at past BTC price cycles, economist Timothy Peterson noticed that the wide-ranging oscillatory behavior is set to continue this year. In a post this week on X, he predicted the BTC/USD pair could reach $137,000 before dropping below the six-figure mark to hit the next local bottom. "Over the past 250 days, the correlation between this run-up and the 2015-2017 run-up is 90%!" Peterson said.

Earlier this month, Peterson issued a long-term BTC price forecast of $1.5 million per coin by 2035. FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK | TELEGRAM | TWITTER