Will there be a “red envelope market” for Bitcoin during the Spring Festival? Looking back at the data of the past 10 years, we will tell you

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CZ officially took office as the US President on January 20, and Bitcoin also hit a new all-time high of $109,800 on that day. However, just a step away from the $110,000 mark, Bitcoin has seen a correction, and as of the time of writing, it has fallen to $105,378, with a 24-hour increase of 4% and a 1-week increase of 3.1%, and has not yet formed a new obvious trend.

Bitcoin Trend. Source: OKX

Will Bitcoin Have a Spring Festival Rally?

However, it is worth noting that from January 25, Taiwan will officially enter a 9-day Spring Festival holiday, and there have been voices in the community speculating that Bitcoin may see a wave of price increase during the Spring Festival.

BlockTempo has compiled the Bitcoin price trends during the Spring Festival period over the past 10 years, and found that Bitcoin has seen an increase every time:

  • 2024 (2/8~2/14): $44,349 to $52,043, an increase of 17.3%
  • 2023 (1/20~1/29): $21,071 to $23,960, an increase of 13.7%
  • 2022 (1/29~2/6): $37,716 to $42,656, an increase of 13.1%
  • 2021 (2/10~2/16): $46,420 to $50,689, an increase of 9.2%
  • 2020 (1/23~1/29): $8,682 to $9,449, an increase of 8.8%
  • 2019 (2/2~2/10): $3,462 to $3,685, an increase of 6.4%
  • 2018 (2/15~2/20): $9,449 to $11,786, an increase of 24.7%
  • 2017 (1/27~2/1): $918 to $986, an increase of 7.4%
  • 2016 (2/6~2/14): $374 to $404, an increase of 8%
  • 2015 (2/18~2/24): $234 to $238, an increase of 1.7%

As for the reason for the increase, on the one hand, year-end employees will receive company bonuses and incentives, and some investors may choose to use this capital to increase their Bitcoin holdings; on the other hand, during the Spring Festival holiday, friends and family may also exchange red envelopes, and many people may use this capital to continue investing and make wishes for a prosperous new year.

What other positive factors are there?

In addition, in the period before and after the Spring Festival, the following positive factors may also stimulate the price increase, including:

  • The leader in Bitcoin holdings among US-listed companies, MicroStrategy, has officially passed a proposal for a secondary stock offering this week on the 21st, which has paved the way for it to continue buying Bitcoin, and this month MicroStrategy has already made consecutive additions, so it is also possible that MicroStrategy will continue to add positions at the end of this month or the beginning of next month;
  • The first repayment to creditors of the bankrupt exchange FTX is expected to be launched in February, and some of this capital may also flow into the cryptocurrency market;
  • Cynthia Lummis, the Republican Senator from Wyoming who proposed last year that the US establish a Bitcoin reserve, officially announced on the 23rd that she has taken office as the chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, and CZ, the founder of OKX, commented that with Cynthia Lummis taking office, it can basically be confirmed that the US will establish a Bitcoin reserve in the future, so if positive news about cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin comes out from Cynthia Lummis' side during the Spring Festival period, the market may also be stimulated to rise.

However, it should be noted that although the Spring Festival has seen the so-called "red envelope rally" for the past 10 years, it does not mean that an upward trend will necessarily occur during the Chinese New Year this year, and the potential positive factors are also uncertain whether they will occur during the Spring Festival period, so readers should pay attention to the price risk.

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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