The market has been highly volatile recently, lacking substantial positive news, and the overall trend remains unclear. Looking back at the plunge on February 3, it not only severely shook the confidence of the bulls, but also plunged the market sentiment into a state of extreme unease.

Current market status: fragmentation and depression

According to the previous halving cycle, this should be a good time to deploy at low prices, but the current market environment is already very different. The deep involvement of capital and political factors has made Bitcoin the sole focus of the market, while Ethereum and other Altcoins are almost motionless, presenting a clear sense of imbalance in the market.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is the key. The possibility of a rate cut in March is extremely slim, and the market may not see a turnaround until May-June. If the rate cut is delayed, the market may continue to fall and oscillate, and holders may face the painful loss of profits, while investors without long-term faith may find it difficult to persist.

Capital dilemma: liquidity depletion

The previous market rally was mainly driven by the influx of funds driven by rate cut expectations. However, with the FOMC meeting in December lowering the expected number of rate cuts to two, market liquidity is approaching a freezing point, causing Bitcoin to react sluggishly to positive news. Nowadays, whether it is the BTC strategic reserve plan submitted by multiple states in the US or the SEC's release of regulatory reform signals, the market feedback on these news is extremely limited. Fundamentally, the market lacks money and is unable to leverage a new round of upward momentum.

Future outlook: patience and waiting

The current market is in a state of neither rising nor falling, giving up may miss the outbreak, and holding may lead to long-term volatility. In past cycles, this "garbage time" often lasted 6-8 months, and it is hoped that this round will not drag on too long. At present, the most important thing is to be patient and wait for the market to become active again.

Finally, there are actually a lot of things that haven't been written in, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions, which are often not something that can be summarized in an article.

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