The Eve of the Storm? Bitcoin Sees a "Cross Star" and the Long-Short Tug of War Is Unresolved
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The market has fallen into a tug-of-war recently, with the BTC bulls and bears repeatedly battling between $100,000 and $96,000. In the past week, there has been a significant pullback, with the price even falling below the $91,000 support level. The volatility indicates that investors' anxiety about the short-term trend is constantly increasing.
Movements of Long-term Holders and Market Signals
On February 9th, the well-known analyst Maartunn shared a set of on-chain data: 14,000 BTC with a history of 7 to 10 years have moved on the chain.
The reactivation of these long-dormant BTC is usually seen as an important signal. These actions may indicate various motivations - long-term holders may be preparing for a potential uptrend, institutions may be adjusting their positions, or market participants are concerned about the persistent selling pressure. Regardless, the reactivation of such a large amount of old BTC usually portends violent price fluctuations. Although such actions are not uncommon during market consolidation, they add more uncertainty to the current market sentiment.
Additionally, analyst DOM has discovered an unprecedented "Doji" formation on the BTC daily chart, which usually signals market uncertainty, similar to the trend after the FTX collapse in November 2022.
DOM stated: "For the first time in BTC's 15-year history, there have been three consecutive 'extreme Doji' candles, with the body part of each candle accounting for less than 0.05% of the entire candle range. This indicates that the market is extremely hesitant and suggests an imminent significant volatility."
Key Price Levels and Technical Analysis
According to TradingView data, BTC is currently hovering around $97,600. Analyst Sebastian believes that to reignite the bullish momentum, BTC needs to firmly hold the $98,000 level, which will lay the foundation for breaking through the $100,000 psychological barrier. Once BTC successfully breaks above and holds the $100,000 level, it will confirm the strong return of bullish momentum and may further explore higher supply zones, kicking off a new round of uptrend.
However, the $96,000 to $97,000 demand zone must be defended to provide support for the potential uptrend. If this zone is lost, it may trigger more selling pressure. In this case, BTC may fall below $95,000 and explore the $90,000 demand zone. Such a trend would severely dampen market sentiment and further strengthen the bearish expectations.
BTC has recently formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which usually suggests a significant breakout.
Market analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that BTC's price is expected to break out of the triangle's uptrend line and ultimately reach the target of $116,000. According to technical analysis rules, the calculation method for the upside target is to add the maximum distance between the triangle's upper and lower trend lines to the potential breakout point, providing a theoretical basis for BTC's upside target.
Outlook
Grayscale research chief Zach Pandl predicts that with the support of favorable Trump policies, BTC may set a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2025. However, in the short term, $80,000 remains a popular target for many analysts. Investment research firm Bravo Research pointed out that if the price falls to this level, it will provide traders with an "opportunity to buy the dip."
In summary, BTC is currently at a critical technical juncture, and the power balance between the bulls and bears will determine the short-term market direction. Investors need to closely monitor the performance of the $98,000 and $96,000 key levels, as a breakthrough in either direction may trigger violent market fluctuations.
Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN
BitPush TG Community: https://t.me/BitPushCommunity
BitPush TG Channel: https://t.me/bitpush
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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