Followin' the market's plunge from its peak in December 2024, the market has been volatile for months, and many players have suffered heavy losses in the endless downtrend and volatile market. Market noise is also rife, with serious disagreements on the bull and bear markets and long and short positions. The macroeconomic environment is unstable, with Trump wielding the tariff stick, and the Fed's rate cuts still far away, market liquidity is tightening, and the community's pessimistic sentiment is spreading.
VX: TTZS6308
When others are greedy, I am fearful; when others are fearful, I am greedy.
Is this a stage bottom for the market?
The fear index has been below 40 since February this year
From July to early October 2024, the market has seen the fear index fall below 40 (panic) on multiple occasions, followed by a FOMO sentiment in November of that year, with the index briefly exceeding 80, and then the market retreated. Currently, the fear index has fallen below 40 again since early February this year.
When the fear index is lower, it often means that the coin price may be in a stage bottom.
The 7-day average funding rate of BTC has dropped 85% compared to December last year
The 7-day average funding rate of perpetual contracts can be an important indicator for observing market sentiment. When the market is booming, the funding rate is often high, which is often the top of the market cycle. Conversely, it is often the bottom of the market.
In March 2024, the 7-day average funding rate of BTC once exceeded 0.06%, indicating that the market's long capital was willing to pay a high cost to the short capital, and the market sentiment was extremely FOMO, which was also the highest point of Q1 that year. From November to December 2024, its funding rate was still above 0.03%, and BTC also broke through the $100,000 mark at that time, but before the market took off, the 7-day average funding rate of BTC had been negative from May to October that year.
At the time of writing, the funding rate has once reached 0.004%, a 85% drop from the peak in December. The market sentiment is in a pessimistic state.
ETH profitability ratio hits a new 4-month low
The market cap of Ethereum has fallen 36% from its local high 7 weeks ago, causing the number of profitable ETH to plummet. From the daily closing data, the current ETH profitability ratio has hit a new 4-month low, and the number of profitable tokens has also dropped to a 3-month low.
As the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum has underperformed other large-cap coins, and the market sentiment has fallen into significant negativity. Although the market is currently full of FUD and retail investors are continuing to sell, once the crypto market stabilizes, Ethereum may see a rebound.
Bitcoin miners have surrendered again since early February this year, and mining difficulty has risen instead of falling
The surrender of Bitcoin miners is often seen as an important reference indicator for the market bottom. Miner surrender means that the profit of mining a Bitcoin is lower than the cost, and historical data shows that the surrender of Bitcoin miners is often the bottom of the market.
Since 2024, Bitcoin miners have surrendered in June and October of that year. Since 2025, Bitcoin miners have surrendered for the first time since February.
At the same time, the mining difficulty of Bitcoin has recently hit a new high of 114.7T. The record high difficulty usually indicates that miners are still optimistic about the long-term value of Bitcoin, otherwise they would not continue to invest computing power. This may have a certain positive impact on market sentiment.
The market cap of stablecoins has risen instead of falling in the past month
Stablecoin data is an important reference for observing the inflow of market funds. Over the past month, the market cap of USDT has increased by 3.4% (US$4.676 billion), and USDC has surged by 22.73% (US$10.396 billion).
If calculated from January 1, 2025, the market cap of USDT has risen from US$137.17 billion to the current US$141.9 billion, an increase of US$4.73 billion.
The USDC data has increased from US$43.77 billion to the current US$56.28 billion.
The above data may imply that the market may be in a stage bottom, but it is difficult to predict when the market will emerge from the bottom. It is worth noting that even if some tokens are currently in the bottom area, some tokens without heat, no narrative, no fundamentals, and continuous massive unlocking, it is difficult to attract capital attention and may face continued decline.
Project Preview - Monad
The secondary market has been ruined, and the short-term market is not looking good, guessing the short-term is no better than flipping a coin, and it's a 50% chance either way.
In the long run, I'm still optimistic. Hold your own coins, and try to find opportunities in the primary market and on-chain.
Multiple heavyweight projects will be launched in Q1 2025, and the bear chain has already made a good start. Monad is undoubtedly one of the opportunities worth laying the groundwork for.
Monad has high TPS, EVM compatibility, and abundant funds, it's a promising project. This new public chain not only has explosive performance (high TPS) and is EVM-friendly, but also has strong financial strength. It's a project worth paying attention to. The official OG channel, the mysterious Purgeatory artist's chamber, and the lively Discord community, the atmosphere is quite hot. For those who want to get in early and pick up opportunities in the early stage of the public chain, instead of staring at those old-fashioned projects, you might as well try Monad, maybe the next opportunity is waiting for you here.
There are currently a small amount of funds, get on board early and enjoy the ride.
