聯準會官網時程顯示，聯準會主席鮑爾將於台灣時間 11 日 23 時出席參議院金融委員會聽證會，發表半年度貨幣政策證詞、並於隔天 12 日 23 時在眾議院金融服務委員會。彭博報導，兩黨議員預計將詢問川普政策對銀行業監管影響、聯準會 DEI 政策倒退、貨幣政策…等議題。
而鮑爾每半年一度的貨幣政策證詞，此次恰逢川普的貿易、稅收、移民和監管政策為美國經濟前景帶來不確定性之際，進一步複雜化聯準會降低通膨...

<div><p><span>聯</span>準會官網時程<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm" rel="nofollow">顯示</a>，聯準會主席鮑爾將於台灣時間 11 日 23 時出席參議院金融委員會聽證會，發表半年度貨幣政策證詞、並於隔天 12 日 23 時在眾議院金融服務委員會。彭博<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-10/powell-heads-for-hyper-charged-hearings-overshadowed-by-trump" rel="nofollow">報導</a>，兩黨議員預計將詢問川普政策對銀行業監管影響、聯準會 DEI 政策倒退、貨幣政策…等議題。</p><p>而鮑爾每半年一度的貨幣政策證詞，此次恰逢川普的貿易、稅收、移民和監管政策為美國經濟前景帶來不確定性之際，進一步複雜化聯準會降低通膨、維持健康就業市場的努力。</p><h3>聚焦貨幣政策</h3><p>聯準會自 2021 年以來，一直未能實現 2% 的通膨目標，這可能會引起議員關注，新任眾議院金融服務委員會主席 French Hill 表示，議員中許多人都對疫情後的聯準會政策感到憂心。</p><p>自去年 9 月起，聯準會已將基準利率下調 1%，報導指出聯準會官員目前想暫時停下降息步伐，先評估經濟影響，因此鮑爾沒有理由背離此趨勢，畢竟 1 月非農就業數據顯示就業仍強勁，失業率降至 4%，通膨率仍高於央行的目標水平。</p><p>另外關於市場關注川普是否會影響利率決策？因為他曾在聯準會一月決定維持利率不變後，對鮑爾表示不滿。不過近期他態度有所軟化，川普於 2 日讚揚維持利率不變是「正確決策」，美國財政部長 Scott Bessent 上週談到鮑爾時也表示「相信他會做正確的事，故不會受到批評」。</p><p>一些民主黨議員可能會就川普對加拿大、墨西哥的關稅威脅，及關稅對經濟成長、通膨的潛在衝擊質詢鮑爾，鮑爾在評論川普政策時向來保守，但在議員追問下，可能會有更明確表態。</p><p>French Hill 表示，他關注聯準會即將進行的 2020 年貨幣政策框架審查，並指「聯準會對通膨目標的評估，以及其通膨分析和規劃，是華府決策者的關注重點」。</p><h3>預計對降息持謹慎態度</h3><p>瑞訊銀行分析師 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 在一份報告中<a href="https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-021125/card/dollar-steady-could-turn-higher-if-powell-is-cautious-about-cutting-rates-AHM3LmUj7xNFXRc8nG6a?modCode=hp_LEDE_C_LC_1" rel="nofollow">表示</a>，儘管川普要求降息的壓力越來越大，但鮑爾預計會對降息持謹慎態度，美國經濟成長依然穩健，就業市場健康，通膨保持穩定，川普的刺激經濟政策和關稅威脅可能加劇通膨，而鮑爾對降息的謹慎立場可能會提振美元。</p></div>

大波動預警！鮑爾今晚赴國會發表年度貨幣政策，Fed降息步伐會有變數嗎？

The Federal Reserve website schedule shows that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the Senate Banking Committee hearing at 11 pm Taiwan time on the 11th, deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony, and then at 11 pm on the 12th in the House Financial Services Committee. Bloomberg reports that lawmakers from both parties are expected to question the impact of Trump's policies on bank regulation, the Federal Reserve's DEI policy reversal, and monetary policy, among other issues.

Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony this time coincides with the uncertainty brought by Trump's trade, tax, immigration and regulatory policies to the US economic outlook, further complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower inflation...

Here is the English translation, with the specified terms retained:

The Federal Reserve's website calendar shows that Federal Reserve Chair Ren Powell will attend a Senate Banking Committee hearing at 11 PM Taiwan time on the 11th, deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony, and then appear before the House Financial Services Committee at 11 PM on the 12th. Bloomberg reports that lawmakers from both parties are expected to question Ren Powell about the impact of Trump's policies on bank regulation, the Fed's backtracking on DEI policies, and monetary policy, among other issues.

Ren Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony comes at a time when Trump's trade, tax, immigration, and regulatory policies are creating uncertainty for the US economic outlook, further complicating the Fed's efforts to lower inflation and maintain a healthy job market.

Focusing on Monetary Policy
The Fed has been unable to achieve its 2% inflation target since 2021, which may draw scrutiny from lawmakers. New House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill stated that many members are concerned about the Fed's post-pandemic policies.

Since September last year, the Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 1%. Reports indicate that Fed officials currently want to pause the rate cuts to assess the economic impact, so Ren Powell has no reason to deviate from this trend, as the January non-farm payroll data shows employment remains strong, with the unemployment rate falling to 4%, though inflation remains above the central bank's target.

Additionally, there is market concern about whether Trump will influence the interest rate decision, as he expressed dissatisfaction with Ren Powell after the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged in January. However, Trump's attitude has softened recently, as he praised the decision to keep rates unchanged on February 2 as the "right decision." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated last week that he "believes Ren Powell will do the right thing and will not be criticized."

Some Democratic lawmakers may question Ren Powell about Trump's tariff threats against Canada and Mexico, and the potential impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation. Ren Powell has traditionally been conservative in commenting on Trump's policies, but may take a more definitive stance under questioning from lawmakers.

French Hill stated that he is concerned about the Fed's upcoming review of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and indicated that "the Fed's assessment of its inflation target and its inflation analysis and planning are a focus of policymakers in Washington."

Expected to Maintain a Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts
In a report, Credit Suisse analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya stated that despite increasing pressure from Trump to cut rates, Ren Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts, as the US economy remains healthy, the job market is strong, and inflation is stable. Trump's economic stimulus policies and tariff threats may exacerbate inflation, and Ren Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts may strengthen the US dollar.

Big fluctuation warning! Powell will go to Congress tonight to deliver his annual monetary policy. Will there be any changes in the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts?

Odaily reports that Bank of America analysts wrote that Trump's trade, fiscal and immigration policy agenda is expected to generate moderate inflation, and they predict that these changes will be reflected in inflation in the second half of 2025. They pointed out that any additional tariffs in the coming weeks could accelerate the timeline: "A key question is whether policy changes will affect long-term inflation expectations." They added that market-based inflation indicators remain within historical ranges. Bank of America reiterated its position that the Fed's rate cut cycle has ended, and inflation is "above target," and they expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month in January. They wrote: "If our forecast for January CPI is correct, the Fed's rationale for standing pat will be further strengthened." (Jinshi)

Bank of America: The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become apparent in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve has ended its interest rate cut cycle

Odaily reports that a research report by CITIC Securities indicates that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US in January 2025 was lower than expected, with the healthcare services, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the US did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The declining unemployment rate, rising wage growth, and the smaller-than-expected downward revision in the annual revision suggest a healthy job market. We expect the impact of the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Musk to be relatively small on the 2025 non-farm employment growth. The non-farm data has broken the relatively optimistic sentiment in the market after the release of the December CPI, and the expectation of rate cuts has been postponed again. The market's focus will now be on the tariff fog and inflation expectations of Trump, and US stocks are expected to maintain high volatility. If the January CPI or tariff plan exceeds expectations, US bond yields and the US dollar index may rise again. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, each by 25bps. (Gold Ten)

CITIC Securities: Maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year

Odaily reports that a Reuters survey shows that 67 out of 101 economists surveyed believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of June (nearly 60% of economists in the January survey expected a rate cut by the end of March), and 57 out of 99 economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates one or two more times this year (56 out of 102 economists in the January survey had the same expectation). Additionally, 27 out of 46 economists said the inflation risk from tariffs has recently increased, 17 said there was no change, and 2 said it has decreased. (Jinshi)

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