Odaily星球日报讯 Pepperstone 的分析师 Michael Brown 表示，目前看来，2025 年上半年降息的可能性很小。他表示：“对联邦公开市场委员会来说，1 月份的美国 CPI 数据将是一个严峻的数据，尽管它很可能受到一次性因素的影响，比如年初经常出现的典型的大幅价格上涨。鉴于这些数据表明，抑制通胀的进展已经停滞，宽松周期暂停更长时间的可能性现在已经上升。”（金十 P）

Odaily星球日报讯 Pepperstone 的分析师 Michael Brown 表示，目前看来，2025 年上半年降息的可能性很小。他表示：“对联邦公开市场委员会来说，1 月份的美国 CPI 数据将是一个严峻的数据，尽管它很可能受到一次性因素的影响，比如年初经常出现的典型的大幅价格上涨。鉴于这些数据表明，抑制通胀的进展已经停滞，宽松周期暂停更长时间的可能性现在已经上升。”（金十 P）

CPI报告显示美联储上半年降息的可能性很低

Odaily reports that Pepperstone's analyst Michael Brown stated that the possibility of rate cuts in the first half of 2025 is currently small. He said: "The US CPI data for January will be a challenging data point for the Federal Open Market Committee, although it is likely to be affected by one-time factors, such as the typical sharp price increases that often occur at the beginning of the year. Given that these data indicate that progress in curbing inflation has stalled, the likelihood of a longer pause in the easing cycle has now increased." (Jinshi P)

Odaily reported that Pepperstone's analyst Michael Brown stated that the possibility of a rate cut in the first half of 2025 is currently small. He said: "The US CPI data for January will be a severe data point for the Federal Open Market Committee, although it is likely to be affected by one-time factors, such as the typical sharp price increases that often occur at the beginning of the year. Given that these data indicate that progress in curbing inflation has stalled, the likelihood of a longer pause in the easing cycle has now increased." (Jinshi P)

CPI report shows low chance of Fed rate cut in first half

Odaily Odaily report: The US dollar is trading steadily as investors focus on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and await the release of US inflation data tonight. Powell said on Tuesday in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. He will deliver a speech to the House Financial Services Committee at 11 pm tonight. Swissquote Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in a report that lower-than-expected inflation data would ease concerns about price pressures and weaken the US dollar. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation data could support a further rise in US Treasury yields and the US dollar, and dampen risk appetite. (Jinshi)

US dollar index trades steadily ahead of Powell's speech and CPI data

Odaily reports that a Reuters survey shows that 67 out of 101 economists surveyed believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of June (nearly 60% of economists in the January survey expected a rate cut by the end of March), and 57 out of 99 economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates one or two more times this year (56 out of 102 economists in the January survey had the same expectation). Additionally, 27 out of 46 economists said the inflation risk from tariffs has recently increased, 17 said there was no change, and 2 said it has decreased. (Jinshi)

Reuters poll: More than 60% of economists surveyed believe the Fed will cut interest rates at least once before the end of June

Odaily Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 95.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.5%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by May is 78.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 20.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.8%.

CPI report shows low chance of Fed rate cut in first half

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