Author: Cycle Capital

1. The BNB Chain-led market frenzy triggered by Four.meme

Recently, the market sentiment on the BNB Chain has captured the attention of the Crypto market, although investors have doubts about the performance and sustainability of the BNB Chain, it has effectively introduced a wave of BNB asset issuance and a surge in BN-series tokens on the exchange.

Source: Coinmarkertcap

Source: Four.meme

This round of rotation is inseparable from the driving force of Four.meme behind the scenes. First, Binance founder CZ shared a video on X, demonstrating how to issue tokens on the Four.meme platform, and the test token in the video was TST. On February 6th, TST fermented in the market, with its market cap first reaching $5 million and then plummeting to near zero. Later, CZ made an objective response to the token, stating that it was not officially issued, but attached a purchase link. Since then, TST has gained market attention and capital speculation due to CZ's positive response, ultimately creating a result of reaching a market cap of $500 million in three days on Binance's spot and contract markets.

This event has prompted everyone to further search for the next "TST" on Four.meme on the BNB Chain. Recently, on February 13th, the Broccoli token issued on Four also reached a market cap of $120 million in three days. On the Binance Cex, the BNX token has also led the surge in BN-series tokens. Since February 8th, it has risen from a single price of $0.16 to a peak of $1.1 in a week, creating a seven-fold increase. Subsequently, tokens such as BNB, CAKE, BAKE, and LISTA have also experienced a wave of price increases, but overall, the performance of BNX has been the most sustained and robust.

Source: Binance

2. FOUR is BNX

In September 2024, BNX initiated a proposal to rebrand to Four, in preparation for the launch and incubation of the meme platform - Four.meme on July 2nd. The proposal was officially passed on September 23rd, 2024, but the renaming has not been implemented yet. The current strong rally of BNX and the popularity of Four may soon lead to the realization of the renaming.

Regarding the BNX team, industry insiders believe that they have always been the "right-hand man" of Binance, adhering to the principle of "wherever Binance has demand, BNX will go there". Their business has spanned options, games, and asset issuance platforms. The layout of Four should be a key step for Binance to activate the BNB Chain ecosystem, and from the current perspective, it seems to be the best time for further development.

It can be said that FOUR is BNX, and BNX is Binance. The greatest positive impact on the chain ecosystem may come from Four.meme, and the potential release of Four.meme will also benefit the price of BNX.

3. Four.meme aims to create the first "Pump" on the BNB Chain

From the launch of this round of Four.meme sentiment, it is not difficult to see that Four.meme intends to replicate the successful cases of Pump.fun and GMGN to activate the BNB Chain ecosystem and further improve the utility and price of BNB.

From the vertical perspective of the BNB Chain, there are still Pump-type platforms such as Burve and Grafun on the BNB Chain, but in terms of market attention, asset issuance volume, and interaction and support with the BNB Chain, other platforms are no match for Four. Simply from the case of CZ teaching the issuance of meme tokens using the Four.meme platform, Four.meme is undoubtedly in the position of the first Pump on the BNB Chain.

Compared horizontally with SOL chain projects, in the past 24 hours, Pump.fun's revenue was $2.74 million, GMGN's was $383,544, and Four.meme's was $115,825. If the BNB hype can be sustained or even further expanded, Four's revenue should be between 1/3 and 1 of GMGN's. Defillama has estimated the projected annual revenue of Pump.fun and GMGN based on the income data of the protocols over the past 30 days, which are $1.572 billion and $258.11 million, respectively. The PE of traditional financial companies can be over 10 times, and Pump.fun and similar projects are rare in the Crypto market that can generate sustained cash flow, so their PE can be conservatively estimated at over 10 times.

Revenue data source: Defillama

The current market cap of BNX is $0.35 billion, and the 10x PE valuation of Pumpfun is 43.6 times that of BNX, while the 10x PE valuation of GMGN is 7.37 times that of BNX. If Four's revenue is 1/3 of GMGN's, the estimated valuation is 2.45 times that of GMGN. Simply put, if BNX officially becomes the platform token of Four, the upside from the current price is conservatively estimated to be 2.45 to 7.37 times.

4. Summary

1. After the market crash following the Trump token issuance, the market experienced a few weeks of sluggish sentiment. Under the drive of Four, a new wave of Cex and on-chain hot spots has been led, and although the market's praise and criticism are not easy, Binance is seizing the opportunity to continue to expand the influence of Four and the BNB ecosystem.

2. Four is BNX, and if Four can further release its potential, it will continue to benefit the price of BNX.

3. Based on the valuation comparison, under stable development, BNX still has an upside of over 2.45 times.