Although I have been writing about the RWA ecosystem in recent articles, the areas I am most focused on and thinking about the most are the AI agent track and the potential trajectory of the overall crypto asset market.
In the current crypto ecosystem, I believe there are only two areas that still have vitality and have formed a certain scale with considerable attention:
One is the meme coins that have been hot throughout the current market cycle; the other is AI agents.
Let's first look at the meme coins.
A few days ago, the president of a Central African country issued a meme coin, then Binance proactively listed a few meme coins, and later several exchanges listed a certain coin that has been actively promoted offline in recent years.
Many players have strong opinions about these coins, but in this free world, these phenomena are what we will inevitably see.
I have not participated in any of these coins, so I maintain a neutral attitude.
However, the attention these coins have generated has surprised me to some extent. Upon further reflection, I sense a certain sense of helplessness and fatigue in the ecosystem.
The surprise is that even after Trump issued a coin, I thought that even if other public figures issued their own meme coins, those coins would not stir up too much emotion.
Because Trump is considered a top-tier meme coin.
But even this top-tier coin has quickly experienced a volatile market cycle. This market cycle has likely depleted the energy and spirit of many players in the ecosystem.
How many players will continue to participate in such games going forward?
Even in a casino, one cannot be on adrenaline all the time and must take a break occasionally.
But on social media platforms, these coins are still hot topics of discussion for many players.
This further demonstrates that since the bear market of the previous cycle, the crypto ecosystem has seen too few breakthroughs in applications and business models.
So participants can only engage in the ebb and flow of emotional value.
Reflecting on the current market cycle, I believe the only area that has real potential and the possibility of further development is AI agents.
Other tracks like gaming and DeFi may also have hope, but I feel that even if they do, it is driven by AI agents rather than their own momentum.
As for RWA, I increasingly feel that while it is related to the crypto ecosystem, the connection is not that strong. More precisely, this track closely related to regulation and centralized institutions will find it difficult to spread its influence to other tracks in the crypto ecosystem.
Returning to AI agents.
Although AI agents have not been a hot topic in the ecosystem recently, some top projects in this track are still diligently building, which is very heartening and moving.
Builders who can persist in construction through hardship and avoid the spotlight to continue their quiet efforts are not only worthy of our admiration, but also the pillars of the ecosystem and the hope for its future.
However, in the short term, the trajectory of the AI agent market, especially the price movements of related tokens, has been interrupted by two major external events, which means that for AI agents as a track to regain its previous momentum and attention, it will require even greater and more powerful stimulation and innovation.
For example, we need an AI agent that is more widely recognized and better able to demonstrate its application value and intrinsic value to reignite the ecosystem.
The difficulty is not small, but I still hope for a miracle.
The sooner this miracle occurs, the greater the hope for the ecosystem to restart. If it's delayed, the hope will become increasingly slim.
The above are the potential driving forces within the ecosystem. I have always believed that these are the core drivers of ecosystem development. If the core drivers are too weak, the overall market trajectory will have a clear ceiling going forward.
If we consider a less optimistic scenario, if the aforementioned miracle does not occur and there are no other miracles in other tracks in the ecosystem, then the basic determinants of the future market trajectory will essentially be external driving forces.
The two important external driving forces I can currently think of are both related to US policies:
One is the inclusion of Bitcoin in the US strategic reserve.
The other is the regulation of POS staking rewards.
In the long run, the inclusion of Bitcoin in the US strategic reserve will certainly have a positive, far-reaching and significant stimulative effect on the entire crypto ecosystem.
But how much impact it will have in the short term (such as this year) is what we are most concerned about now.
As a reference, we can look at the fact that more than 10 US states have already included Bitcoin in their reserves.
However, in the face of such public and definitive news, has the Bitcoin market seen significant improvement in its trajectory?
It doesn't seem so.
So I think it's better to take a conservative view on the short-term impact of Bitcoin's inclusion in the US national reserve.
As for the potential relaxation of POS staking regulations, I feel that even if such policies are implemented, the impact will not be great, or in other words, the impact will be limited until real business scenarios and application models emerge in the crypto ecosystem.
So overall, without other miracles, the future trajectory of the ecosystem will increasingly depend on the development of AI agents.
