Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of Altcoins is $32 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.94%, which is $19.2 trillion. The market capitalization of Stablecoins is $225.3 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.62%, of which USDT accounts for 63.19%.
This week, the price of BTC has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $97,725; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $2,728.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have increased, and a small portion have decreased, including: BNX with a 7-day increase of 508%, CAKE with a 7-day increase of 77.65%, AI16Z with a 7-day increase of 54.32%, GRASS with a 7-day increase of 49.89%, and TRUMP with a 7-day increase of 33.55%.
This week, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was $602.4 million; the net outflow of the US Ethereum Spot ETF was $26.3 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on February 14 was 50 (higher than the previous week), and the sentiment for the past 7 days was neutral.

Market Forecast: This week, the market has escaped the panic sentiment of "US tariff hikes", and even though the possibility of a rate cut in March is small, it has not had a significant impact on the market. Altcoins have rebounded significantly and are currently in a consolidation phase. The US BTC and ETH Spot ETFs have both seen net outflows, while Stablecoins have increased slightly. Strategy has increased its BTC holdings by approximately $742.4 million at an average price of $97,255, indicating that long-term holders are still entering the market.
The issuance of the US presidential token TRUMP has brought a wealth effect, prompting presidents of countries like Central Africa and Argentina to follow suit. Currently, there are many opportunities to participate in on-chain MEME, but the risks are also high, as many of the hype are difficult to sustain for more than a day. Hotcoin Research Institute selects popular assets and lists them in a timely manner to provide users with trading options.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On February 10, the President of the Central African Republic, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, announced the launch of the Meme Coin CAR and published the contract address through his official X account about an hour ago. It is currently unclear whether his account has been hacked;

2. On February 10, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (Senate Bill 778) was submitted to the Senate Finance Committee for review on February 7;

3. On February 10, according to on-chain data, the Trump crypto project WLFI spent 156,667 USDC to increase its holdings of 273,937 Movement (MOVE) tokens;

4. On February 10, Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), posted on social media that Strategy has increased its holdings of 7,633 Bitcoins at an average price of about $97,255, with a total value of approximately $742.4 million;

5. On February 11, North Carolina has introduced a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, aiming to become the first state in the US to purchase Bitcoin;

6. On February 12, according to the SEC website, Goldman Sachs' 13F filing disclosed its holdings as of December 31, 2024, including over $1.5 billion in multiple Bitcoin Spot ETF shares;

7. On February 12, the Trump crypto project WLFI announced the launch of the Macro Strategy plan, which is to establish a strategic token reserve to support leading projects at the forefront of reshaping global finance, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other Altcoins;

8. On February 14, the NFT project Doodles announced the launch of its official token DOOD;

9. On February 14, Coinbase (COIN) reported its Q4 2024 financial results, with Q4 revenue reaching $2.3 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $1.87 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 88%. Trading revenue was $1.6 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 172%, with quarterly trading volume reaching $439 billion. Annual revenue was $6.6 billion, net profit was $2.6 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached $3.3 billion.

Macroeconomic

1. On February 8, the SEC postponed the decision on BlackRock's Ethereum ETF options trading to April 9;

2. On February 13, after the CPI data was released, according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.5%, and the probability of keeping it unchanged is 97.5%; the probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 0.2%, the probability of cutting by 25 basis points is 11.7%, and the probability of keeping it unchanged is 88.1%;

3. On February 14, US President Trump stated that he has decided to impose reciprocal tariffs, and many countries' tariffs are expected to remain unchanged, with no exemptions or reductions expected. Countries that have adopted a value-added tax system will be considered as tariff targets, and the practice of transporting goods through other countries to avoid tariffs will not be accepted. However, the tariff policy will be delayed and may start on April 1;

4. On February 14, the SEC has confirmed receiving Grayscale's revised application for a spot XRP ETF;

5. On February 14, the SEC has confirmed accepting Grayscale and the New York Stock Exchange's 19b-4 application to establish a DOGE ETF.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period from February 10 to February 14, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was $602.4 million; as of February 14, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $21.967 billion, and currently holds $19.472 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $57.087 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF is $115.748 billion.
The net outflow of the US Ethereum Spot ETF was $26.3 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025 in Hong Kong;

2. ETHDenver 2025 will be held from February 23 to March 2, 2025 in Denver, USA.

Project Progress

1. The point activity of the consumer-grade public chain Morph will continue until February 20, 2025, with 10% of the tokens used for community airdrops and ecosystem growth activities, totaling 1.6 million points. Users can earn points through asset cross-chaining, paying Gas fees, and inviting new users;

2. According to Cointelegraph, Telegram now requires third-party crypto wallets to use TON Connect and restricts mini-programs to the TON blockchain, making TON the only blockchain network supported by Telegram.

Important Events

1. Coinbase Derivatives has applied to list SOL and HBAR token futures contracts on or after February 18. The SOL standard contract size is 100 SOL (about $24,000), and the mini contract size is 5 SOL; the HBAR contract size is 5,000 tokens. These contracts will be cash-settled on a monthly basis and cleared by the CFTC-registered derivatives clearing organization Nodal Clear, LLC;

2. FTX will begin the initial distribution to eligible claimants in the Chapter 11 Convenience Class on February 18, 2025. The initial distribution is limited to holders of allowed claims in the Convenience Class prior to the completion of the distribution. Eligible creditors should receive their distribution within 1 to 3 business days starting from February 18, 2025.

Token Unlocks

1. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.38 million tokens on February 17, worth approximately $11.5 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply;

2. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on February 19, worth approximately $32.22 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating supply;

3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on February 21, worth approximately $20.16 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly advise investors to invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.