Author:Westie

Compiled by: TechFlow

Let's talk about the Memecoin cycle, putting aside practicality, long-term vision, and even the story. The core of this cycle is actually only one thing: how to get ahead.

Highlights: ETF Craze and the Rise of Solana

This explosion is not just ordinary market sentiment, but more specific events. At the end of 2023, the application for a Bitcoin ETF will signal that institutional funds are about to flood into the crypto market. And Solana has rebounded strongly after the FTX collapse, telling a story of recovery and rebuilding legitimacy.

In comparison, traditional altcoins seem too outdated. Many coins are burdened with the heavy baggage of the bear market, and those projects supported by venture capitalists, although they have roadmaps and whitepapers, their valuations often seem "artificially designed", more like an exit strategy than exciting innovation.

Memecoins, however, bring a completely different experience: simple, direct, and fun. They are "anti-VC" tokens, without whitepapers, and even without websites. Just a Meme, a ticker, and a launch. Their appeal lies in their simplicity and high risk. It is precisely because traditional altcoins are too predictable that Memecoins have become the purest "high risk, high return" bet in the market.

If Bitcoin can double due to the ETF craze, and SOL can rise from the depths, then a dog coin with no practical use might surge 100 times. This is the starting point of this cycle: the optimistic sentiment of ETFs, the recovery of SOL, and the fatigue of VC-backed altcoins.

BONK: The First Step in the Racing Game

Then, BONK emerged.

BONK is not complicated, nor does it have particularly outstanding Meme properties. But it is the first token to seize this wave of energy. People saw its violent fluctuations, saw the profits it brought, and gradually formed an intuition: something is happening. This is different. This is fast.

Initially, "racing ahead" was not a conscious goal for people. It was more of an attitude of "this is volatile, maybe I can take a small bet." But BONK's performance - first explosive growth, then predictable fluctuations - gradually and imperceptibly defined the rules of this game.

Narrative Shift: Absurdity Rises from the Limited Meme Pool

The narrative has changed. People in the crypto circle have begun to realize: "Memecoin is a game, and the key to the game is to find the next BONK, but more interesting."

"More interesting" is not about technological progress or team strength. "More interesting" means easier to spread. So how to do it? At this stage, the gameplay of Memecoins is still very primitive, and the choices for differentiation are actually pitifully few. There are no complex strategies or carefully crafted narratives to refer to. In fact, the ready-made, internet-native Meme resources themselves are very limited. You are not choosing from thousands of options, but making choices from a few materials that can make people smile.

Among this limited choice, what is the most attractive? The answer is: absurdity.

In this context, "more interesting" is almost equivalent to "more absurd." Because in an immature Memecoin world, absurdity itself is a powerful signal. It can grab attention and spread quickly. More importantly, in a market where no one knows what a "good Memecoin" should be, humor and the instant sense of hitting the funny bone become the strongest filtering criteria.

And then, Dogwifhat (WIF) was born.

"Wif hat." A misspelled, meaningless Shiba Inu with a hat. This is the pinnacle of internet absurdity. For many people, the first reaction was to laugh out loud. This is its charm. This humor, this absurdity, conveyed a signal:

"This is new. This is unique. This is... early?"

The rules of the game have gradually become clear, even intuitively clear. It's not just about finding a Memecoin, but finding the one that already has the potential to go viral before the actual outbreak. Capturing the current internet memes, internet jokes, and the fleeting sense of absurdity. And in those early stages, in that limited Meme pool, the coin that can make people laugh the loudest and the most absurdly often naturally becomes the winner.

To find such a coin, you have to race ahead.

The Memecoin Hunting Ground: The Gamble of Speed and Control

The gameplay has been updated very quickly. "Early" is no longer just about the time point after the project is launched, it's already too late after launch. The real "early" is before launch - before the public knows, before the hype explodes, before the price surges.

So tools like Photon and "memescope" have emerged. The game has become more tactical. Traders are soaking in memescope every day - Photon's new Memecoin listing page. The gameplay becomes: stare at memescope, refresh constantly, and buy in as soon as possible. Pure "early" optimization - competing in speed, reaction ability, and the endurance to stare at the screen for a long time.

The "memescope gameplay" seems fair - in theory, anyone with the tools and time can participate. But beneath the surface, a darker force is emerging: some "insiders" are secretly manipulating, creating Memecoins and precisely controlling the core metrics that memescope traders rely on to make decisions.

These projects are not always naturally generated grassroots movements. In fact, more and more Memecoins are carefully designed as profit-making tools. The tricks of these insiders include:

• Creating Memecoins out of thin air: There is no real community or natural hype from the beginning.

• Manipulating data metrics: Artificially inflating on-chain transaction data, creating fake social media hype, and even manipulating the ranking systems of "trending" tokens to make them appear more popular than they actually are.

• Precisely targeting trader tools: Knowing that memescope and similar tools have become the core of Memecoin trading, they specifically design methods to exploit the loopholes in these platforms.

• Hiring market makers: Creating a false impression of "active trading" on the token launch, making the new coin look immediately hot on the charts.

• Collaborating with KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders): Paying influencers to "shill" the token, creating a false impression of "everyone is buying."

• Deploying Twitter "bots": Assembling a team of bots or paid accounts to frantically comment on posts of major crypto accounts, drowning the platform with token-related information to create a false sense of hype.

Those traders staring at memescope really think they've won the "early" game, but in reality, they've always been one step behind those who truly control the rules of the game.

The two key points of the Memecoin game - absurdity becoming the core driver of viral spread, and insiders manipulating the "early" game to create exit liquidity - are entering their final boss stage.

Fartcoin: The Gamble of Absurdity and Attention

For those trying to create the "next WIF" - the next Memecoin that can quickly go viral - a key truth is gradually emerging: To get the public to buy your Memecoin, you must seize their fleeting attention. And in the world of Memecoins, attention has never been won by complex stories or technical promises, but by pure and undeniable visual impact.

The definition of "early" has completely transformed: it is not just about speed, nor just pure absurdity, but about carefully crafting the ultimate attention-grabbing tactic of "extreme absurdity".

This is the moment for Fartcoin to shine.

Fartcoin. From the perspective of a Memecoin creator who wants to attract the masses, what could be better than launching a token called "Fartcoin" to guarantee attention? This is not just absurd, but absurd to the point that everyone instantly understands. The name itself is a conversation starter, a natural viral hit. It seems precisely designed to create a sensational news story that can cut through the internet noise: "Can you believe people are throwing money at something this ridiculous!"

Fartcoin has become the ultimate experiment in the attention economy of the Memecoin world. This is not just a regular token launch, but an intentional, even cynical attempt to turn absurdity into a attention-grabbing weapon to attract the masses. It has become a stark and farcical proof of concept: in the Memecoin game, especially when the goal is to achieve true virality and mainstream adoption, extreme absurdity is not just a desirable trait - it is the core marketing strategy, distilled to its purest and most provocative form.

Is there anything more absurd than Fartcoin?

The New Playbook of the Internal Game and the Market

On top of the manipulation tactics of the memescope era, a deeper trend is emerging: pure animal Meme coins, despite their explosive past popularity, are starting to hit a plateau, as the market becomes more rational and sophisticated.

The narrative needs a new direction, a gameplay with a "legitimate" veneer. This is when "content-rich" Memes start to emerge - these tokens, while still essentially Memes, are imbued with a layer of plausible deniability to give them a semblance of legitimacy. Thus, AI tokens become the new mainstream play. Suddenly, buying Memes is no longer just for a dog wearing a hat, but for "investing" in the future of artificial intelligence! This provides a seemingly reasonable rationale for purchase, even if the rationale is quite flimsy, going beyond pure absurdity.

However, behind this thematic repackaging, the core mechanics of the game and the role of insiders remain unchanged. The real advantage still lies in information asymmetry. These insider groups have simply adapted quickly to the new playbook, using their early access to information to maintain their edge in this new narrative.

Celebrity Memecoins: The Pinnacle of Absurdity and Manipulation

The Memecoin gameplay has evolved to a new stage: the year of celebrity coins. Insiders have found that the most effective way to drive viral adoption and ensure bag-holding exits is to collaborate with influential celebrities. These celebrities often have massive followings but are crypto-illiterate, making them perfect "spokespeople" for insider manipulation.

Interestingly, these behind-the-scenes orchestrators often disguise themselves as "high-level traders", hinting (or outright claiming) that their outsized profits come from their own skills, rather than information advantages. This narrative further frustrates ordinary players, as they find themselves increasingly unable to access the "early" game, always a step behind.

The "internal game" is now laid bare for all to see, including:

• Becoming the issuer: Creating tokens, controlling the narrative, and manufacturing viral adoption through extreme absurdity or "respectable" stories. This is the ultimate early-stage play, with complete control over the pace of propagation.

• Becoming an insider: Identifying token issuers with viral potential or apparent real-world value, and positioning early before they become widely discussed on crypto Twitter. Information asymmetry on viral potential is their biggest edge.

• Becoming an influencer: Building one's own fan base, leveraging influence to get early access to absurd or "respectable" tokens, then amplifying the narrative, creating headlines, and ensuring bag-holders.

After the trend of viral absurdity and narrative control in issuance reached new heights, Fartcoin has demonstrated the ultimate power of absurdity. But then, TRUMP emerged.

TRUMP. The hottest Meme globally? Suddenly, even meticulously planned absurdity seemed insufficient. Who could possibly outshine Trump in terms of attention-grabbing power? Virtually impossible.

Imagine yourself as a Memecoin trader when TRUMP launched. Anyone with even a passing glance could see this was a classic insider play. 80% of the token supply was transparently locked for insiders. On-chain data clearly showed the existence of token hoarders and pre-mint privileges. These should have been warning signs, but in the face of TRUMP, they no longer mattered.

Because this was Trump - the elected President of the United States. This was the Memecoin of Memecoins, the ultimate celebrity coin. Of course you would buy it. It felt like a whole new set of rules. Even if the insider manipulation was blatant, for Trump, it no longer seemed to matter.

Then MELANIA was launched.

When MELANIA went live, the entire market seemed to lose its vitality in an instant. The once-lively club, where everyone suddenly sobered up. The "internal game" that was already so obvious in TRUMP was now fully exposed in MELANIA. The two operations were cut from the same cloth, but MELANIA's "naked money-grabbing" was even more transparent. The difference was that the Meme effect of TRUMP had briefly masked the cynicism, while MELANIA had nothing left to cover it up.

In reality, this "internal game" had long been apparent, but before MELANIA, people had chosen to turn a blind eye. Now, with MELANIA's arrival, the scam was fully unveiled, and the cycle was broken.

TRUMP has also become an ultimate case study: it clearly demonstrates how the "internal game" can reach its pinnacle. This is not just a Meme, but a force of politics and culture, launched with the privilege and pre-ordained success aura of insiders.

Is there an "internal game" bigger and more transparent than TRUMP and MELANIA?

The 2021 Echo: The "Early" Cycle of NFTs

Doesn't the entire Memecoin cycle sound familiar? Let's go back to 2021, the peak of the NFT craze.

What was the catalyst back then? The soaring price of ETH, driven by the DeFi summer. NFTs became ETH's "high-risk, high-return play" - a bet that could potentially yield even higher returns.

Soon, the spotlight focused on PFP (profile picture) projects. "Community" became a buzzword, but in reality, the core of the game was finding the next Bored Ape - a project that could rapidly increase in value and cultural influence.

Just like Memecoins, people realized that the key to the game was "early access". But in the NFT world, "early" meant fighting for whitelist spots. Spamming Discord, interacting on Twitter, completing various tasks - the whitelist battle became the memescope of the NFT world, as everyone desperately chased pre-mint opportunities.

The pursuit of "early" kept escalating. People realized that the earliest way to participate was to become a creator. Soon, celebrities also started to join in.

Steph Curry and Jimmy Fallon began flaunting million-dollar JPEGs, while Logan Paul openly scammed his fans. Who's next? The NFT space also seemed to have reached a celebrity-driven peak, with a sense of narrative fatigue starting to set in.

Regarding the change in cycles... NELK, the team that marked the peak of the celebrity NFT craze in 2021, has just recently launched their own Memecoin - Fullsend. If this is not a signal, then what is?

These similarities are astonishing. Although the asset classes are different, the underlying game mechanics are completely identical: the endless pursuit of the "early", which ultimately leads to self-consumption. At a certain point, the game has nowhere to go; you need to completely reset this game.

The Absurd Endpoint: Resetting and Reflecting on the Cycle

As the Memecoin cycle gradually comes to an end, the echoes of the NFT craze still linger. We see tokens like LIBRA being launched, and people seem to be putting their entire portfolios on the line, just to try to replicate the glory of the TRUMP trade. This phenomenon is precisely what George Soros called the "twilight zone" in the market cycle - a stage where people continue to participate, even though they know the game has lost its meaning.

As Soros pointed out, the core feature of this stage is that "people continue to play the game, even though they no longer believe in it." The belief in the "early" magic is gradually eroding, but the habit of chasing Memecoin's meteoric rise is deeply rooted.

Soros also warned that "ultimately, a crossover point or critical point will come, when the trend begins to reverse, the market sentiment reverses, thereby triggering an accelerated disastrous decline (8), which is what we call a collapse."

At this point, we have to ask ourselves: Can this narrative be played out in new ways? Are there more levels to this game?

Will there be more absurd Memes than Fartcoin?

Will there be bigger, more transparent "insider games" than TRUMP and MELANIA?

The answer is likely negative. At least in this cycle, it's not possible.

The Memecoin cycle, defined by the endless pursuit of the "early", seems to have reached its end. It is driven by hype, absurdity, and the promise of the "early", but like all hype cycles, it is destined to self-destruct. When the underlying mechanics of the game are exposed and the illusion gradually fades, this pursuit of the "early" ultimately consumes itself.

However, the human desire for the "early" will not disappear. This psychology has already taken deep root in the culture of cryptocurrencies.

Perhaps this Memecoin cycle has ended, but that desire still exists. The game may very well come back, but with new rules, more absurd narratives, and attract new players who once again crave to be the ones who discover the "early" opportunity.

Friends, please take care.