Odaily星球日报讯 法国巴黎银行 Markets 360 分析师预计，美联储可能要到 2026 年年中才会降息。他们自去年 12 月初以来一直持有这种观点。他们的预测部分基于对关税的预期，但最近的消息表明，他们可能不得不提高对关税的初步估计。这使得分析师们对其已经高于市场共识的通胀预期更有信心。货币市场目前预计美联储将在 9 月份重启降息。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 法国巴黎银行 Markets 360 分析师预计，美联储可能要到 2026 年年中才会降息。他们自去年 12 月初以来一直持有这种观点。他们的预测部分基于对关税的预期，但最近的消息表明，他们可能不得不提高对关税的初步估计。这使得分析师们对其已经高于市场共识的通胀预期更有信心。货币市场目前预计美联储将在 9 月份重启降息。（金十）

法巴银行：美联储降息或将延迟至2026年中期

Odaily Odaily report: According to analysts at Markets 360 of BNP Paribas in Paris, France, the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates until mid-2026. They have held this view since early December last year. Their forecast is partly based on expectations of tariffs, but recent news suggests they may have to raise their preliminary estimates of tariffs. This makes the analysts more confident in their inflation forecasts, which are already above the market consensus. The money market currently expects the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in September. (Gold Ten)

BNP Paribas: Fed rate cuts may be delayed until mid-2026

<PANews> On February 15, PANews reported that this week's CPI report showed that the US consumer inflation rate has risen, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledged that more work needs to be done to eliminate price pressures in the economy, cooling expectations for rate cuts, but the subsequent weak retail sales data has given people some hope. Wall Street's ability to handle dramatic events has been exercised again. The fact has proved again that traders are capable of this task, and the overall market has not been greatly affected. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
Monday 22:30, speech by Harker, 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia;
Monday 23:20, speech by Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor;
Tuesday 23:20, speech by Daly, 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco;
Thursday 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting;
Thursday 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US as of February 15, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February;
Thursday 22:35, speech by Goolsbee, 2025 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago;
Friday 01:05, speech by Mester, 2025 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, at the New York Economic Club;
Friday 22:45, preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI for the US in February;
Friday 23:00, final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US in February, final one-year inflation rate expectation for the US in February.
After Powell's semi-annual testimony and the January inflation data, investors are unlikely to pay much attention to the Fed's January meeting minutes next week. So the focus may be on the S&P Global PMI data for February this Friday. PMI below 50 could put pressure on the US dollar and boost gold. A survey of more than 50 global fund managers conducted by Bank of America in February shows that betting on a stronger dollar is still seen as the most crowded trade among interest rate and currency traders. Nearly half of investors still expect the US dollar exchange rate to peak in the first quarter of this year.</PANews>

Next week's macro outlook: Traders resume pricing in a Fed rate cut before September, dollar frenzy cools

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BNB Chain will prioritize processing memecoin transactions

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