QCP: The options market is distorted before the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, and the crypto market is still on the sidelines

Odaily reported that in the options market, the term structure near the March expiration date has shown obvious distortion, especially in ETH, which may reflect the market's positioning ahead of the Ethereum Pectra upgrade - currently under testing and expected to be officially launched in early April. Reviewing past upgrade events, The Merge (September 2022) followed the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern - ETH rebounded over 100% from the June low, but sold off after the event. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade (April 2023), which allows staking withdrawal, the market has a pessimistic attitude due to concerns over oversupply. However, once the selling pressure failed to materialize, ETH rose 30% in the following months. Traders may be preparing for another volatility event, as the relevant narratives are gaining more attention, with volatility skewed towards call options since March 28th - this may set the stage for the next positioning theme, as the crypto market remains cautious after the impact of the Trump tariff issue. One counterforce is the widespread weakness of Altcoins - the collapse of LIBRA, SOL and ETH falling back to pre-election levels, and BTC's market dominance approaching historical highs. Beyond market catalysts, sustained recovery of Altcoins may require real-world applications and network development progress, not just speculative capital flows.