Over the past week, BTC has been fluctuating narrowly around $100,000, with a maximum weekly range of 3.86%, and the current price is fluctuating around $95,000. After the market sentiment hit bottom, ETH has seen a significant increase in market attention due to community sentiment and the Hulezhi incident, with the ETH price reaching a high of $2,849.70, up 11.88% for the week. Currently, the ETH price is fluctuating in the $2,600-$2,700 range (Binance spot 17:00 on the 18th real-time data).
The macroeconomic market has entered a low-volatility cycle, with high growth, low inflation, and relatively low interest rates coexisting. Trump's inauguration did not bring the strong catalytic effect predicted by the market, the US dollar index fluctuated and then fell back, and the ever-changing tariff policy has also gradually made the market immune; in contrast, the market is looking forward to the meeting between Trump and Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible.
Market Analysis
The expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has risen to 60%, with inflation still the focus of attention
Over the past week, the release of core economic data has increased market expectations for a rate cut in June. Against the backdrop of CPI data higher than expected and weak retail sales data, the rate cut expectation has risen to 60%. Inflation remains an important focus of the current market, and the Fed is committed to reducing market concerns about inflation.
Powell said, "The CPI data is almost higher than all forecasts, but I want to remind you of two points: first, we will not be overly optimistic due to one or two good data points, nor will we be overly pessimistic due to one or two bad data points. Secondly, our inflation target focuses on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, as we believe it better reflects the inflation situation."
Trump's ever-changing tariff policy further boosts gold prices, with strong demand for gold delivery
Gold's primary safe-haven status is firmly established and it has become the primary tool for hedging against inflation. Over the past 25 years, gold prices have risen 10%, and spot gold delivery demand has been strong. According to a Bloomberg report, the amount of gold transferred to COMEX-approved vaults in the U.S. has increased by more than 70% compared to normal.
Trump's ever-changing tariff policy, combined with the Fed's attitude towards inflation, has further driven market demand for gold. In this regard, Tradu senior financial commentator Nikos Zaboulis said, "In the uncertain 'Trump 2.0' era, gold will naturally benefit from risk aversion and central bank purchases. However, if inflation rebounds, the Fed will take more cautious monetary policy easing measures, which could push up the dollar and suppress gold demand."
The ETH market trading sentiment has fallen into pessimism, and a Dead Cat Bounce may be on the horizon
Over the past 25 years, the ETH price has fallen by more than 20%, and the actual volatility has also performed poorly among crypto assets and major stock indices, with the market's trading sentiment for ETH also hitting a trough recently. Based on ETH's strong application scenarios and Trump's World Liberty Financial also continuously buying ETH, ETH may not rule out the possibility of a Dead Cat Bounce.
Since the beginning of this week, ETH has also seen relatively strong rebounds, with a weekly high of over 11%. As the community regains interest in ETH and SOL converts to ETH, the drawbacks of MEME coins in a market with liquidity shortages have become apparent, and the ETH ecosystem with strong usage attributes may see a rebound.
Market Hotspots
The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts rates for the first time in 4 years, with hawkish rhetoric causing a significant drop in the stock market
The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the first rate cut since November 2020, reaching a new low since October 2023, in line with market expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that there are signs that the decline in inflation may occur faster than expected. It believes that if interest rates are lowered too quickly, there is a risk of a stagnation in the decline of inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia stated: "While today's policy decision acknowledges the welcome progress on inflation, the Committee remains cautious about the prospect of further policy easing and will continue to rely on data and dynamic risk assessments to guide its decisions." After the announcement of the decision, the Australian dollar briefly rose and then gave up its gains. Affected by the hawkish rhetoric, the Australian stock market fell.
BTC market adoption increases, with 12 U.S. states' pension funds or treasuries holding $330 million worth of MSTR stocks
Cointelegraph reported that by the end of 2024, 12 states in North America have reported that their state pension funds or treasuries hold MSTR (formerly MicroStrategy) stocks, totaling $330 million.
California, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina have the largest exposures to MSTR in their public funds, with the California Teachers' Retirement Fund holding 285,785 shares of MSTR, worth about $83 million, ranking first. Other states that hold MSTR in their public funds include Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Texas, and Utah.
