Source: Liu Jiao Chain
Overnight, BTC continued to slide, at one point falling to around 93k, and then rebounded to around 95k in the morning.
What stage are we in now?
Some say the bull market has ended. And it's a Double Top ending. The first peak will be in early 2024. The second peak will be in late 2024 or early 2025. However, the Chain opens the weekly chart and it doesn't look like a Double Top. This is clearly a step up.
The prevailing view is that we are currently in the mid-stage of the bull market. We seem to still have some distance to the end.
Of course, the risks at the end will certainly become greater.
Some choose to reduce their positions at $100,000, "not to eat the fish tail", to avoid risks and secure their gains.
Others like to brave the waves. "The bigger the waves, the more valuable the fish".
Holding USDC and holding BTC are two different mindsets. One is USDC-centric, the other is BTC-centric.
Exchanging BTC for USDC, the consideration is the risk of selling at the top. Even if this bull market peaks at $500,000, an 80% drop would still bring it back to $100,000.
Exchanging USDC for BTC, the consideration is the risk of getting stuck. The $100,000 level in early 2025 is on the middle track of the power law, and it will take 3 years for the lower track to reach this level. That is, the maximum time to get stuck may not exceed 3 years.
The former is based on past experience. The latter is looking at the future forecast. However, the future is also the past.
The hope of the former is to wait for a lower price to buy the dips.
The wish of the latter is not to miss the opportunity to increase the amount of BTC.
The former measures the relativity of space.
The latter measures the relativity of time.
The Chain's own view is that it's not about selling assets to take profits, but about exchanging high-risk assets for low-risk assets.
The Chain's risk ranking is: meme > alts > stocks > USD > BTC.
Three months ago, the Chain wrote that the bull market is a good time to find and seize the opportunity to secure gains.
Of course, the prerequisite is to have accumulated in the bear market.
With accumulation, there will be profits to be secured.
Without accumulation, there will be nothing to harvest.
There are two ways to miss the bull market: one is not knowing there is a bull market; the other is watching the bull market unfold, but having no capital to capture it.
It's a pity not to know there is a bull market. But failing to capture the bull market is even more heartbreaking.
However, never make the wrong move because of the heartbreak, don't FOMO, don't swap assets from right to left, exchanging low-risk positions for high-risk positions.
Be conservative in the bull market. Be adventurous in the bear market. Doing the opposite, I can't say you will definitely lose, but you will most likely suffer the pain of being stuck.
Although the Chain writes this, it can't do it either.
But still need to write a little, to remind myself, this time to do a little better than the last time. A little progress is enough.
In investing, the biggest enemy to overcome is not others, but oneself, the demon within.
