Taking stock of the progress of the five popular cryptocurrency ETF applications, which one is most likely to be approved?

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As the cryptocurrency market matures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become an important bridge connecting traditional finance and digital assets. This article summarizes the latest progress of cryptocurrency ETF applications, covering the applying institutions, feasibility analysis, introduction to the underlying assets, the price performance of the tokens in the past month, as well as the SEC's review and response timeline, providing readers with comprehensive market insights and future outlook.
As of February 19, 2025, the cryptocurrency ETF market has continued to heat up. Especially after the approval of Bit and Ethereum spot ETFs, more institutions have submitted applications for other cryptocurrencies. The following are the main developments: Applicant/Institution: Grayscale Investments Progress: Grayscale submitted the application for the world's first ADA spot ETF to the US SEC in the second week of February 2025. After the announcement, the price of ADA temporarily rose by 16%. The application is currently in the SEC's preliminary review stage. Final Response and Review Period: The SEC usually has a 45-day preliminary response period (until around March 25, 2025) after receiving the application, which can be extended to 90 days (around May 10, 2025). Applicant/Institution: Bitwise Asset Management, Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital Progress: Bitwise officially submitted the XRP spot ETF application through the Cboe BZX exchange in February 2025, and the SEC confirmed receipt on February 18. Other institutions such as Grayscale and 21Shares also submitted similar applications in late 2024 to early 2025, and they are currently under review. Final Response and Review Period: Taking Bitwise as an example, the SEC needs to provide an initial response within 45 days (around April 4, 2025), which can be extended to 90 days (around May 19, 2025). Applicant/Institution: VanEck, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital Progress: Multiple institutions submitted SOL spot ETF applications in late 2024 to early 2025, among which Grayscale and VanEck's applications have entered the 21-day public comment period. Final Response and Review Period: Taking Grayscale as an example, after the comment period, the SEC has 45 days for an initial response (around the end of March 2025), which can be extended to 90 days (around mid-May 2025). Applicant/Institution: Grayscale, Canary Capital, Nasdaq (on behalf of an undisclosed issuer) Progress: Nasdaq submitted the LTC spot ETF application on January 29, 2025, and the SEC has accepted it and entered the 45-day preliminary review (until around March 15, 2025). Grayscale and Canary Capital's applications are also progressing simultaneously. Final Response and Review Period: The initial response is due by March 15, 2025, and can be extended to 90 days (around April 29, 2025). Applicant/Institution: NYSE Arca (on behalf of an undisclosed issuer), Grayscale Investments, Bitwise Asset Management, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital Progress: The DOGE ETF applications submitted in early 2025 are still in the early stages, and the SEC has not yet released more details, with slower progress. Final Response and Review Period: Estimated 45-day initial response period (around mid-March 2025), which can be extended to 90 days (around the end of April).
The feasibility of cryptocurrency ETFs is influenced by regulation, market demand, legal risks, and technological maturity: Positive Factors: The new SEC leadership (Paul Atkins) is more crypto-friendly, and the expectation of policy relaxation in 2025 has increased. The successful launch of Bit and Ethereum ETFs has set precedents for other cryptocurrencies. Challenges: SOL and XRP have previously been questioned by the SEC as "securities", and their legal status needs to be clarified; ADA and LTC have a higher chance of approval due to their decentralized nature; DOGE faces greater uncertainty due to its meme attributes. Approval Probability (Bloomberg Analyst Forecast): LTC (85%), ADA (70%), SOL (60%), XRP (50%), DOGE (20%). LTC and ADA have certain demand due to their technological maturity and community support; SOL benefits from the DeFi and Non-Fungible Token (NFT) ecosystem, but is negatively impacted by the downturn in the MEME market; XRP has the attention of institutional investors; DOGE is more dependent on retail sentiment and may have limited scale.
Introduction: Cardano is an open-source blockchain platform that focuses on academic research and sustainability, supporting smart contracts and DApp development. Past Month Performance (January 18 - February 18, 2025): The price dropped from $1 to $0.74, a decline of around 26.41%. Introduction: XRP is supported by Ripple Labs, focusing on cross-border payments, and emphasizing fast and low-cost transactions. Past Month Performance: The price dropped from around $3.09 to $2.56, a decline of around 18.45%. Introduction: Solana is a high-performance public blockchain known for its high throughput and low latency, widely used in MEME, RWA, DeFi and NFT. Past Month Performance: The price dropped from around $242 to $169, a decline of around 31.91%. Introduction: Litecoin is a Bitcoin fork, positioned as the "silver to Bitcoin's gold", with faster transaction speed and lower fees. Past Month Performance: The price increased from around $117 to $131.33, a rise of around 11.46%, buoyed by the ETF application and market sentiment. Introduction: Dogecoin originated from meme culture and is now a top cryptocurrency by market capitalization, driven by the community and public figures (such as Musk). Past Month Performance: The price dropped from around $0.35 to $0.25, a decline of around 29.19%, with high volatility.
As of February 19, 2025, the cryptocurrency ETF market has entered a new round of enthusiasm, with multiple institutions submitting spot ETF applications for ADA (Cardano), XRP, SOL (Solana), LTC (Litecoin) and DOGE (Dogecoin), driving the further integration of crypto assets into traditional finance. Leading asset managers like Grayscale, Bitwise, and VanEck are leading the applications, with varying progress: LTC and ADA have a higher chance of approval due to their technological maturity and regulatory-friendly nature, SOL and XRP need to overcome the "securities" definition controversy, while DOGE faces greater uncertainty due to its meme attributes. The review periods are mostly concentrated in March to May 2025, and the open-minded attitude of the new SEC leadership injects optimistic expectations into the approval process. In terms of the underlying asset performance, the past month has seen a decline of 20% to 30% due to the overall market correction. The feasibility analysis shows that regulatory relaxation, market demand, and technological maturity are the key driving factors for ETF approvals, but legal risks remain the main challenge. In the coming months, investors and industry observers need to closely monitor the SEC's final responses, as cryptocurrency ETFs may become an important barometer for the crypto market in 2025. Original article link: https://www.jinse.cn/blockchain/3708961.html?source=m Join BlockBeats official communities: Telegram subscription group: https://t.me/theblockbeats Telegram discussion group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App Twitter official account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia

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