Important Events of the Week (2/16-2/22)

Late Friday night, the Bybit exchange was reportedly hacked, with about $147 million in Ether being transferred out. Fortunately, the official said the assets can be covered, and user withdrawal function is still normal, but it has sounded a major alarm for the industry's security.

Pi Network, which has been waiting for six years, finally opened its mainnet and was listed on OKX, Pinet, and MEXC on February 20. The Pi coin opened at $2.2 but quickly fell below $1 due to selling pressure.

The Argentine president's promotion of the $LIBRA token has sparked controversy, facing fraud allegations and impeachment threats. The market is increasingly questioning the team behind LIBRA, especially after the token's price skyrocketed and then plummeted rapidly, with reports that the LIBRA co-founder bribed the president's sister to promote support.

FTX exchange plans to auction about $2.06 billion in SOL assets on March 1, and the market expects this auction to put pressure on the market. Meanwhile, FTX launched its first creditor repayment on February 18 and plans to launch the second wave of repayment distribution in 2025.

• Bitcoin: The price dropped significantly due to stock market volatility and the Bybit hack. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that institutional demand has decreased and faces downward pressure in the short term.
• Interest Rates: A Reuters survey expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 0.75% in July. The Federal Reserve, however, remains cautious about rate cuts due to the potential for tariffs to push up inflation, and is considering slowing or pausing balance sheet reduction.
• Ethereum: Three Arrows Capital's Zhu Su is bullish on Ethereum, believing it's time to go long on ETH, expecting it to rebound. But ETH transaction fees have plummeted and demand is weak, with an uncertain market outlook. Although the ETH staking ETF is about to be launched, which will change the market landscape, it still faces challenges overall. The SEC has shown interest in ETH spot ETFs, which could be a catalyst for ETH's rise.
• Trump: Claimed his policies drove Bitcoin to an all-time high, and vowed to make the US the global capital of cryptocurrencies. He emphasized that if the tariff policy is successfully implemented, Americans could be exempted from income tax, which could change the global trade landscape.
• Musk: Plans to investigate Fort Knox, which holds 147 million troy ounces, accounting for 56.35% of the US gold reserves.
• Vitalik: Responded to community accusations that he has majority control of the Ethereum Foundation, saying he only holds 1/3 of the seats, and emphasized that the Foundation's issues cannot be entirely attributed to him. He answered questions about ETH's progress and challenges in an AMA, and the Foundation is hiring a social media manager to improve user relations.
• US: The SEC has temporarily suspended lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, and Ripple's appeal may also be suspended, indicating a further slowdown in cryptocurrency regulatory actions.
• Taiwan: Polkadot founder Gavin Wood introduced the JAM protocol at National Taiwan University, promoting the development of decentralized Web3 applications.
• Hong Kong: The Securities and Futures Commission released 12 virtual asset development roadmaps, planning to open up staking, leveraged trading, and derivatives, while strengthening regulation. The High Court issued a "token injunction" through blockchain for the first time, enhancing legal protection. Additionally, the government will unveil its Web3 development blueprint to attract international investors at the 2025 Consensus Hong Kong conference.
• ETF: Brazil has approved an XRP spot ETF, and the market is watching whether the US will follow suit. The Litecoin ETF is 90% highly anticipated, and Franklin Templeton is pushing for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.
• MicroStrategy: Plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings through a $200 million corporate bond, but faces corporate tax risks.

Changes in the Trading Market Data This Week

Sentiment and Sectors

1. Fear and Greed Index

The market sentiment indicator this week moved from 54 (Neutral) to 55 (Neutral), staying in the (Neutral) range throughout the week.

2. Sector Performance

Artemis data shows that the average decline in the blockchain sector this week was -5.3%, with the top three performing sectors being Data Availability (+10.3%), Staking Services (+3.5%), and AI (-1.2%).

The weekly gains for Bitcoin and Ethereum were -0.4% and -1.4% respectively. The worst-performing sectors were Social (-14.8%), Metaverse (-13.1%), and NFT Applications (-9.2%).

Market Liquidity

1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply

This week's cryptocurrency market cap data shows a range from $3.22 trillion to $3.26 trillion. BTC dominance is 56.78%, and ETH dominance is 9.77%.

The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, ranged from $205.93 billion to $205.45 billion this week.

2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges

Data shows that the net inflow trend of stablecoins to exchanges has continued to weaken, and market participants remain cautious about entering the market, with a more conservative capital deployment. While stablecoin inflows to exchanges are usually seen as a signal of increased market buying power, the current inflow scale is significantly lower than the peak last year.

Compared to the peak daily net inflow of $15.4 billion in December last year, the highest daily net inflow this week was only about $320 million, indicating a significant decrease in market activity. Notably, this week saw capital outflows, especially on February 19, when the net inflow to exchanges was negative, reaching $830 million, suggesting a lack of strong capital momentum in the short term and a further slowdown in capital flows.

3. Cryptocurrency Dynamics

In the cryptocurrency market this week, Sonic (prev. FTM), MANTRA, and Maker led with gains of +53.7%, +37.9%, and +37% respectively.

According to CMC data, the current Altcoin Season Index is 28 (up -7 from last week).

The current bull market top signals are 0/30, with no top-out warnings triggered yet.

Bitcoin Technical Indicators

1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows

This week, Bitcoin ETF flows saw an outflow of $419 million.

2. Bitcoin Open Interest Rebounds to $60 Billion

According to data, the total open interest across the network has rebounded to $60.17 billion, almost back to the level seen in November last year.

3. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($97,000) is in the "Consider DCA" range.

4. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained in positive territory for most of the time, indicating relatively strong demand in the US market. Compared to last week, the premium index fluctuated more, but between February 18 and 19, the premium index briefly turned negative and experienced a certain degree of decline, suggesting some selling pressure in the US market during that period, before rebounding to positive territory on February 20.

Note: A positive premium may indicate that US investors' buying power is stronger than the global market, but based on historical data, if the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, it is usually a buying opportunity.

5. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss

The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows that market sentiment continues to fluctuate, but there is no clear sign of panic selling. Recently, Bitcoin has been consolidating around $97,000, and the realized profit/loss has fallen significantly from its peak in December last year, gradually approaching the zero line, indicating an increase in profit-taking, but the selling pressure remains manageable.

This week, the net realized profit/loss has remained in the $200-400 million range, further declining from the peak in early January, indicating a more cautious sentiment among market investors. The selling pressure has eased, but the current profit-taking scale is still in a downward trend, and the potential buying momentum has not yet fully accumulated, so the future capital flow changes need to be closely monitored.

6. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders

On-chain data shows that the change in holdings of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) continues to be negative, indicating that the selling pressure has not yet fully subsided. However, compared to the concentrated selling in December last year, the recent selling pressure has significantly weakened, reflecting a stabilization of the market's selling momentum and a slowdown in the selling activity of long-term holders.

It is worth noting that although the price of Bitcoin has remained at a relatively high level, long-term holders have not yet shown signs of re-accumulation, indicating that the market is still relatively cautious about the current price range. If the selling pressure further eases in the coming weeks, the possibility of long-term holders resuming their increase in holdings could have a positive impact on market sentiment and provide potential support for further upward movement in the price of Bitcoin.

7. Bitcoin On-Chain Purchasing Power

According to on-chain data, the supply of Bitcoin Short-Term Holders (STH) has continued to rise, indicating increased market activity. The recent trend of capital inflows into short-term trading positions is evident, and in the past few weeks, the supply of Short-Term Holders has seen a significant increase, reflecting the increased participation of short-term traders in the market.

At the same time, the supply of Long-Term Holders (LTH) has continued to decline since last December, indicating that some long-term holders have chosen to realize their profits at higher prices. This suggests that the market is in a phase of capital rotation, with the de-leveraging behavior of long-term holders providing liquidity to the short-term market, but it may also exacerbate selling pressure. Going forward, it will be necessary to monitor the changes in capital flows and holding structures, particularly whether Short-Term Holders will continue to drive market sentiment or whether profit-taking will trigger market correction risks.

This Week's Market Analysis News

1. Bloodbath! Bitcoin plunges below $95,000, Ethereum nearly breaks below $2,600, and the four major U.S. stock indexes all fall

Affected by the U.S. stock market and the Bybit hacking incident, Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $99,475 last night and rebounded after hitting a low of $94,871 in the early hours of the morning, with a short-term drop of 4.7%. Ethereum also fell from a high of $2,845.32 to a low of $2,616.72, a short-term drop of 8.1%, nearly breaking below $2,600.

2. Breaking News: Bybit Exchange Hacked! $1.47 Billion in ETH Abnormally Transferred Out, Official: Withdrawals Remain Normal

After 11 PM on the 21st, multiple on-chain analysts and researchers tweeted warnings that Bybit exchange's cold wallet had experienced abnormal transfers of large amounts of ETH and stETH to unknown hot wallets, worth about $1.47 billion, immediately triggering a community uproar, and the hacker has since gradually converted various assets into ETH and transferred them to dozens of wallets.

3. Trump Rants: If Tariff Policy Succeeds, Americans May Not Have to Pay Income Tax!

After taking office, U.S. President Trump has been pushing an "America First" trade policy, frequently implementing tariff policies and even planning to implement reciprocal tariffs, sparking a global trade storm. On the 20th, he stated that if the tariff policy is successful, Americans may not have to pay income tax.

4. Afraid Vitalik Will Say the Wrong Thing Again? Ethereum Foundation Hires a "Social Media Manager" to Mend the Rift with the Community

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is recruiting a "Social Media Manager", indicating its attempt to respond to the community's criticism of the disconnect between the Foundation and its users. The position will be responsible for managing the EF's official accounts (@ethereumfndn and @ethereum), planning community operations strategies, and amplifying ecosystem trends.

5. Three Perspectives on the Potential Impact of the Staking Mechanism on the Development of ETH ETFs

The ETH staking ETF is about to be launched, which is expected to add about 2 million ETH in staking. The introduction of the staking function will change the market landscape and significantly increase the asset management scale of ETH ETFs.

6. Meme Coins Fizzle Out: Total Market Cap Returns to November 2024 Level, Can Solana Hold $160 After a 40% Monthly Plunge?

After experiencing a continuous decline, IntoTheBlock pointed out yesterday (18th) that the overall market capitalization of meme coins has returned to the level of November 2024. Meanwhile, according to CoinGecko data, Solana, the main battlefield of the current bull market meme coins, has also encountered severe shocks.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Situation in Various Countries

1. What Did the Hong Kong Government Say at the Consensus? From Web3 Policies to Infrastructure Commitments

2. XRP Spot ETF Approved! Hashdex's Application Approved by Brazil's Securities Commission, Will the U.S. Be Next?

According to the Brazilian media portal "Portal do Bitcoin", the digital asset management company Hashdex's application for an XRP spot ETF in Brazil has been approved by the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM), making it the world's first XRP spot ETF.

3. Former SEC Official: SEC Likely to Suspend Litigation Against Binance and Ripple, Halt All Cryptocurrency-Related Investigations

Former SEC official John Reed Stark tweeted today that the SEC has already suspended litigation against the Coinbase case and the Binance case, and is expected to also suspend the appeal against Ripple. Given the current situation where the SEC's cryptocurrency enforcement division is virtually defunct, Stark believes the SEC's enforcement actions against cryptocurrencies can be officially declared over.

Market Focuses for Next Week

2/24 (Monday)

• Australia: February Interest Rate Decision, Previous Value 4.35%
• Hong Kong: January Unemployment Rate, Previous Value 3.1%

2/25 (Tuesday)

• Germany: Q4 GDP (QoQ), Forecast -0.2%, Previous -0.2%
• U.S.: February Consumer Confidence, Previous 104.1

2/26 (Wednesday)

• Hong Kong: Q4 GDP (YoY), forecast 2.4%, previous 2.4%
• Hong Kong: Q4 GDP (QoQ), forecast 0.8%, previous 0.8%
• US: Crude Oil Inventories, previous 4.633M
• US: January New Home Sales, previous 698K

2/27 (Thursday)

• US: Q4 GDP (QoQ), forecast 2.3%, previous 3.1%
  US: Initial Jobless Claims, previous 219K

2/28 (Friday)

• Germany: February CPI (MoM), forecast -0.2%
  US: January Core PCE (MoM), previous 0.2%
  US: January Core PCE (YoY), previous 2.8%

3/1 (Saturday)

• China: February Manufacturing PMI, previous 49.1