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This week, BTC opened at $96,119.99 and closed at $96,265.98, up 0.15% for the week, with a volatility of 6.43%, and trading volume has recovered somewhat. BTC price is still within the "Trump bottom" (89,000 ~ 110,000 USD range).
Along with US inflation and employment data, as well as Trump's tariff policy, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming one of the core factors affecting the financial markets.
The Russia-Ukraine war is gradually becoming clear that it will gradually end, transmitting to a drop in oil prices and a rise in interest rate cut expectations. However, the Michigan inflation expectation data released on Friday again hit the market's weak interest rate cut expectations. The two offset each other, and the market view is leaning negative.
The three major US stock indexes, which rebounded to near their previous highs, all experienced sharp declines, returning to a downward trend.
The crypto market has seen the largest theft case in history, with the offshore exchange Bybit, which is closely linked to the Chinese community, having more than $1.46 billion in crypto assets stolen from its cold wallet on February 21. This sudden crisis and inflation expectations caused the BTC rebound to approach $100,000 to suddenly end and return to the $96,000 level.
However, as the clearance is close to being completed, the adjustment is relatively sufficient, and the crypto market has not fallen again in the face of internal and external crises, but has achieved a slight increase during the week. ETH, which had previously suffered heavy losses, rebounded 2.04%.
For the medium-term trend of the crypto market, EMC Labs maintains a neutral to positive judgment. Although the US CPI has rebounded, the market has basically completed the pricing of the downward adjustment of interest rate cut expectations, and the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increase in oil production all point to a decline in oil prices, based on which the interest rate cut expectations may be revised upward in the near future.
Macro Finance and Economic Data
The United States and Russia held preliminary talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss the possibility of ending the "Russia-Ukraine war" and made breakthrough progress. The parties to the negotiations are gradually approaching the final outcome.
Trump called on OPEC to increase oil production, causing the price of Brent crude oil, which had previously rebounded, to plummet 3.08% on the 21st, wiping out the entire weekly gain.
On Friday, the University of Michigan released data for February, showing that consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next five to ten years, the highest level since 1995. At the same time, the February consumer confidence index fell from 71.7 in January to 64.7. This report strengthened the resilience of inflation and again weakened the market's interest rate cut expectations, becoming the most impactful news for the market this week.
For most of the week, the three major US stock indexes rebounded slightly, gradually approaching their previous historical highs. After the release of the University of Michigan data, the market plummeted, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 falling 2.51%, 2.51%, and 1.66% respectively during the week.
London gold and the US 10-year bond yield were again pushed up by safe-haven funds, rising 1.81% and falling 1.11% respectively during the week.
Selling Pressure and Selling
In terms of selling pressure, long and short positions sold a total of 135,994 BTC, continuing to decline, with both upward and downward forces being insufficient. Exchange outflows exceeded 10,000 BTC, with no significant changes in trends.
The changes in the floating profits of long and short positions are not significant, with long positions at 289% and short positions at 4%, and currently there is no significant selling pressure.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF are showing divergence again. Stablecoins saw inflows of $1.117 billion for the week, while BTC ETF outflows exceeded $546 million.
The deteriorating US stock market environment has led to continued outflows from BTC Spot ETF, which remains the main reason for the weakness in BTC.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.375, indicating that the market is in an upward consolidation phase.
EMC Labs (Emergence Labs) was founded in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, committed to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring well-being to humanity.
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